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Wednesday, 09 July 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS
The mini-boom in dry bulker values catapulted ship prices too fast too far over the last one-and-a-half year. The concurrence of historically low prices in both second-hand and newbuilding markets, which approached the post Asian crisis lows in inflation-adjusted terms, offered the perfect background for asset play, but this is much easier said than done.
Most real-world buy-low-sell-higher cases concentrated on the flipping of newbuildings contracted at rock-bottom prices when we witnessed Handysize Newbuildings at sub-20musd levels, Ultramaxes at sub-24musd, Kamsarmaxes at rgn 26musd, and Capes at low-mid 40s. Notably, Cargill penned in May 2013 3x180kdwt Capes at SWS, acknowledging they would not operate these ships forever, and by the end of the same year sold them to Scorpio at 57musd each at a stunning rgn10musd profit per vessel. Oldendorff purchased a Crown-63 resale in late 2012 for mid-24s and after trading her, sold her for rgn31musd to Greeks. The same interests recently sold to Diana, a 180k Capesize resale under construction at Qingdao Beihai, for 58musd and a profit in excess of 10musd.
S&P-wise, the appreciation was spectacular on all dry asset classes last year. Regarding LME Panamaxes, ex-Ocean Planet (‘05 Sasebo) was committed in January 2013 by Chartworld at sub-m$15 while ex-Ocean Lily (’06 Imabari) was sold to Sanko close to 25musd this March, resulting in a 2/3 value appreciation in 14mos. While initial appreciation was substantiated, it went on irrationally (mimicry, artificial liquidity by the speculative funds, fear of ‘losing’ the market or even having money in the bank, taxation considerations, low interest rates, etc). On a few S&P asset play cases, in late 2012 Norwegian interests committed the 2006-built Tsuneishi Kamsarmax ex ‘Mizunagi Maru’ arnd 18.4musd and sold her a year later at 23.5musd to Greek interests enjoying a 5musd profit. Chinese owners also got on the bandwagon, having sold two late 90s Capes (m/v Lian Fu Star and m/v Tai Fu Star) to Ukrainians at mid/high teens recording a profit of rgn/xs 5musd per vessel in less than a year.
The current price correction is evidenced by the sale of the ‘Yusho Spica’ at rgn 20musd marked an abrupt 5musd discount from her same-year built sister ‘Ocean Lily’ 3 months ago. This brings asset values back to May 2013 when the ex-Shoyo (76k ’06 Namura) was sold at 20.25musd to Diana. Most likely, the current correction will not break soon the previous lows, because the costs of creating a new asset, ie, newbuilding prices, are well above previous lows and there are still many buyers/funds getting ready to step in, should a further correction in asset values occurs.
Well-timed acquisitions materialize when the others are fearful, when the banks do not lend money, when speculative money becomes disappointed. Nobody knows where we are heading but the recent past has benchmarked a lower bound for assets. As such, there may be longer-term value in modern S&P deals priced up to a 20% premium above the rock-bottom (e.g. a 2006/7 Japanese built Panamax BC at 18musd) and at a respective 10% premium for newbuildings (e.g., rgn/sub 29-30musd for Kamsa NBs from top Chinese yards). We may be getting close to there, but there are strong resistance forces as well.
Perhaps the wildest scenario would arise if the freight market stays depressed for another year and asset prices deteriorate further. What would then be the reaction of the speculative funds that, having a short-term investment horizon anyway, may massively look for an exit? In case this happens, it may signal the biggest asset play opportunity in the coming years.
By Panos Tsilingiris - SnP Broker
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 09 July 14
PANAMAX MARKET FINALLY CORRECTING UPWARDS; AVERAGE TC MORE THAN DOUBLING WEEK ON WEEK - INTERMODAL
The Dry Bulk market has closed off on Friday on a more positive note, with most segments noting weekly gains and the Panamax market finally correct ...
Tuesday, 08 July 14
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE FALL AGAIN IN JULY; LOST 1.62%
COALspot.com - The Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources of Indonesia again revised down the coal bench mark price in July. HBA for month of J ...
Tuesday, 08 July 14
ENERGY IN THE MIX - INTERMODAL SHIPBROKERS
With the Tanker freight market having showed much promise this year compared to the performance that had been noted during the previous five, it is ...
Monday, 07 July 14
INDONESIA STATE-CONTROLLED COAL MINER BUKIT ASAM TO TRADE COAL ON-LINE THROUGH JFX
COALspot.com: Indonesian state owned coal miner PT Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam Tbk (PTBA) has teamed up with Jakarta Futures Exchange (JFX) to sell ...
Monday, 07 July 14
RBCT, THE WORLD'S SINGLE LARGEST EXPORT COAL TERMINAL SHIPPED 31.91 MMT OF COAL IN H1 2014
COALspot.com: South Africa's Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT) the world’s single largest export coal terminal, shipped 31.91 million ton ...
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Showing 3616 to 3620 news of total 6871 |
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- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The University of Queensland
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Australian Coal Association
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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