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Wednesday, 09 July 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS
 The mini-boom in dry bulker values catapulted ship prices too fast too far over the last one-and-a-half year. The concurrence of historically low prices in both second-hand and newbuilding markets, which approached the post Asian crisis lows in inflation-adjusted terms, offered the perfect background for asset play, but this is much easier said than done.
Most real-world buy-low-sell-higher cases concentrated on the flipping of newbuildings contracted at rock-bottom prices when we witnessed Handysize Newbuildings at sub-20musd levels, Ultramaxes at sub-24musd, Kamsarmaxes at rgn 26musd, and Capes at low-mid 40s. Notably, Cargill penned in May 2013 3x180kdwt Capes at SWS, acknowledging they would not operate these ships forever, and by the end of the same year sold them to Scorpio at 57musd each at a stunning rgn10musd profit per vessel. Oldendorff purchased a Crown-63 resale in late 2012 for mid-24s and after trading her, sold her for rgn31musd to Greeks. The same interests recently sold to Diana, a 180k Capesize resale under construction at Qingdao Beihai, for 58musd and a profit in excess of 10musd.
S&P-wise, the appreciation was spectacular on all dry asset classes last year. Regarding LME Panamaxes, ex-Ocean Planet (‘05 Sasebo) was committed in January 2013 by Chartworld at sub-m$15 while ex-Ocean Lily (’06 Imabari) was sold to Sanko close to 25musd this March, resulting in a 2/3 value appreciation in 14mos. While initial appreciation was substantiated, it went on irrationally (mimicry, artificial liquidity by the speculative funds, fear of ‘losing’ the market or even having money in the bank, taxation considerations, low interest rates, etc). On a few S&P asset play cases, in late 2012 Norwegian interests committed the 2006-built Tsuneishi Kamsarmax ex ‘Mizunagi Maru’ arnd 18.4musd and sold her a year later at 23.5musd to Greek interests enjoying a 5musd profit. Chinese owners also got on the bandwagon, having sold two late 90s Capes (m/v Lian Fu Star and m/v Tai Fu Star) to Ukrainians at mid/high teens recording a profit of rgn/xs 5musd per vessel in less than a year.
The current price correction is evidenced by the sale of the ‘Yusho Spica’ at rgn 20musd marked an abrupt 5musd discount from her same-year built sister ‘Ocean Lily’ 3 months ago. This brings asset values back to May 2013 when the ex-Shoyo (76k ’06 Namura) was sold at 20.25musd to Diana. Most likely, the current correction will not break soon the previous lows, because the costs of creating a new asset, ie, newbuilding prices, are well above previous lows and there are still many buyers/funds getting ready to step in, should a further correction in asset values occurs.
Well-timed acquisitions materialize when the others are fearful, when the banks do not lend money, when speculative money becomes disappointed. Nobody knows where we are heading but the recent past has benchmarked a lower bound for assets. As such, there may be longer-term value in modern S&P deals priced up to a 20% premium above the rock-bottom (e.g. a 2006/7 Japanese built Panamax BC at 18musd) and at a respective 10% premium for newbuildings (e.g., rgn/sub 29-30musd for Kamsa NBs from top Chinese yards). We may be getting close to there, but there are strong resistance forces as well.
Perhaps the wildest scenario would arise if the freight market stays depressed for another year and asset prices deteriorate further. What would then be the reaction of the speculative funds that, having a short-term investment horizon anyway, may massively look for an exit? In case this happens, it may signal the biggest asset play opportunity in the coming years.
By Panos Tsilingiris - SnP Broker
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 04 July 14
PARAM MITRA COAL RESOURCES SECURES US$ 7.5M INVESTMENT FROM TEMBUSU PARTNERS
Param Mitra Coal Resources Pte Ltd (“PMCR”), which owns two operating coal mines in Indonesia, has secured from Singapore private equit ...
Thursday, 03 July 14
BUMI TRANSFERS 19% OF KPC STAKE VALUED AT US$ 950 MILLION TO CIC
COALspot.com: PT. Bumi Resources announces that 19% of its holdings in Kaltim Prima Coal (KPC), valued at US$ 950 million, has been transferred to ...
Thursday, 03 July 14
PANAMAX : IN THE ATLANTIC, OWNERS ARE WILLING TO FIX AT ABOUT $2.5K PER DAY - FEARNEYS
Handy
In its latest weekly report, shipbroker Fearneys noted that, this week seems to have been more of a wait and see game between owners and ch ...
Wednesday, 02 July 14
NEWMONT FILES FOR INTERNATIONAL ARBITRATION ON ORE EXPORT BAN - THE JAKARTA POST
PT Newmont Nusa Tenggara (NNT), a subsidiary of United States-based Newmont Corporation, has filed for international arbitration against the govern ...
Wednesday, 02 July 14
THE PANAMAX MARKET CONTINUED TO BLEED FOR ANOTHER WEEK - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market succumbed to mounting pressure this past week, while the Capesize market proved unable to “save the day&rdq ...
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- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Australian Coal Association
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The University of Queensland
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
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