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Wednesday, 09 July 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS
 The mini-boom in dry bulker values catapulted ship prices too fast too far over the last one-and-a-half year. The concurrence of historically low prices in both second-hand and newbuilding markets, which approached the post Asian crisis lows in inflation-adjusted terms, offered the perfect background for asset play, but this is much easier said than done.
Most real-world buy-low-sell-higher cases concentrated on the flipping of newbuildings contracted at rock-bottom prices when we witnessed Handysize Newbuildings at sub-20musd levels, Ultramaxes at sub-24musd, Kamsarmaxes at rgn 26musd, and Capes at low-mid 40s. Notably, Cargill penned in May 2013 3x180kdwt Capes at SWS, acknowledging they would not operate these ships forever, and by the end of the same year sold them to Scorpio at 57musd each at a stunning rgn10musd profit per vessel. Oldendorff purchased a Crown-63 resale in late 2012 for mid-24s and after trading her, sold her for rgn31musd to Greeks. The same interests recently sold to Diana, a 180k Capesize resale under construction at Qingdao Beihai, for 58musd and a profit in excess of 10musd.
S&P-wise, the appreciation was spectacular on all dry asset classes last year. Regarding LME Panamaxes, ex-Ocean Planet (‘05 Sasebo) was committed in January 2013 by Chartworld at sub-m$15 while ex-Ocean Lily (’06 Imabari) was sold to Sanko close to 25musd this March, resulting in a 2/3 value appreciation in 14mos. While initial appreciation was substantiated, it went on irrationally (mimicry, artificial liquidity by the speculative funds, fear of ‘losing’ the market or even having money in the bank, taxation considerations, low interest rates, etc). On a few S&P asset play cases, in late 2012 Norwegian interests committed the 2006-built Tsuneishi Kamsarmax ex ‘Mizunagi Maru’ arnd 18.4musd and sold her a year later at 23.5musd to Greek interests enjoying a 5musd profit. Chinese owners also got on the bandwagon, having sold two late 90s Capes (m/v Lian Fu Star and m/v Tai Fu Star) to Ukrainians at mid/high teens recording a profit of rgn/xs 5musd per vessel in less than a year.
The current price correction is evidenced by the sale of the ‘Yusho Spica’ at rgn 20musd marked an abrupt 5musd discount from her same-year built sister ‘Ocean Lily’ 3 months ago. This brings asset values back to May 2013 when the ex-Shoyo (76k ’06 Namura) was sold at 20.25musd to Diana. Most likely, the current correction will not break soon the previous lows, because the costs of creating a new asset, ie, newbuilding prices, are well above previous lows and there are still many buyers/funds getting ready to step in, should a further correction in asset values occurs.
Well-timed acquisitions materialize when the others are fearful, when the banks do not lend money, when speculative money becomes disappointed. Nobody knows where we are heading but the recent past has benchmarked a lower bound for assets. As such, there may be longer-term value in modern S&P deals priced up to a 20% premium above the rock-bottom (e.g. a 2006/7 Japanese built Panamax BC at 18musd) and at a respective 10% premium for newbuildings (e.g., rgn/sub 29-30musd for Kamsa NBs from top Chinese yards). We may be getting close to there, but there are strong resistance forces as well.
Perhaps the wildest scenario would arise if the freight market stays depressed for another year and asset prices deteriorate further. What would then be the reaction of the speculative funds that, having a short-term investment horizon anyway, may massively look for an exit? In case this happens, it may signal the biggest asset play opportunity in the coming years.
By Panos Tsilingiris - SnP Broker
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 11 July 14
UNITED STATE'S MONTHLY COAL OUTPUT FALLS 5.53% IN JUNE
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 18.1 million short tons (mmst) of coal in a ...
Thursday, 10 July 14
SGX EXPANDS ACROSS THE BULKS WITH NEW COAL PRODUCTS
COALspot.com: Singapore Exchange (SGX) is expanding its bulk commodity derivatives offering by launching new coking and thermal coal products on 4 ...
Thursday, 10 July 14
HANDY: SMALL INCREASE; PANAMAX: POSITIVE TONE; CAPESIZE: PAPER VALUES REMAIN WEEK
Handy
It is a general increase in activity in both hemispheres whereas rates have just experienced a small increase. In the Feast we see stable a ...
Wednesday, 09 July 14
SHIP INVESTMENTS ARE TRENDING LOWER
Most ship owners are deeming current ship prices on the high side, refraining from making serious commitments in new acquisitions or newbuilding or ...
Wednesday, 09 July 14
INDIAN GOVERNMENT ADVISED POWER UTILITIES TO INCREASE COAL IMPORTS
COALspot.com: The government of India has advised power utilities to increase coal imports to meet fuel shortages and those that have fuel supply p ...
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Showing 3611 to 3615 news of total 6871 |
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- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Planning Commission, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Parliament of New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PTC India Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Australian Coal Association
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- White Energy Company Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The University of Queensland
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
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