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Wednesday, 09 July 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS
 The mini-boom in dry bulker values catapulted ship prices too fast too far over the last one-and-a-half year. The concurrence of historically low prices in both second-hand and newbuilding markets, which approached the post Asian crisis lows in inflation-adjusted terms, offered the perfect background for asset play, but this is much easier said than done.
Most real-world buy-low-sell-higher cases concentrated on the flipping of newbuildings contracted at rock-bottom prices when we witnessed Handysize Newbuildings at sub-20musd levels, Ultramaxes at sub-24musd, Kamsarmaxes at rgn 26musd, and Capes at low-mid 40s. Notably, Cargill penned in May 2013 3x180kdwt Capes at SWS, acknowledging they would not operate these ships forever, and by the end of the same year sold them to Scorpio at 57musd each at a stunning rgn10musd profit per vessel. Oldendorff purchased a Crown-63 resale in late 2012 for mid-24s and after trading her, sold her for rgn31musd to Greeks. The same interests recently sold to Diana, a 180k Capesize resale under construction at Qingdao Beihai, for 58musd and a profit in excess of 10musd.
S&P-wise, the appreciation was spectacular on all dry asset classes last year. Regarding LME Panamaxes, ex-Ocean Planet (‘05 Sasebo) was committed in January 2013 by Chartworld at sub-m$15 while ex-Ocean Lily (’06 Imabari) was sold to Sanko close to 25musd this March, resulting in a 2/3 value appreciation in 14mos. While initial appreciation was substantiated, it went on irrationally (mimicry, artificial liquidity by the speculative funds, fear of ‘losing’ the market or even having money in the bank, taxation considerations, low interest rates, etc). On a few S&P asset play cases, in late 2012 Norwegian interests committed the 2006-built Tsuneishi Kamsarmax ex ‘Mizunagi Maru’ arnd 18.4musd and sold her a year later at 23.5musd to Greek interests enjoying a 5musd profit. Chinese owners also got on the bandwagon, having sold two late 90s Capes (m/v Lian Fu Star and m/v Tai Fu Star) to Ukrainians at mid/high teens recording a profit of rgn/xs 5musd per vessel in less than a year.
The current price correction is evidenced by the sale of the ‘Yusho Spica’ at rgn 20musd marked an abrupt 5musd discount from her same-year built sister ‘Ocean Lily’ 3 months ago. This brings asset values back to May 2013 when the ex-Shoyo (76k ’06 Namura) was sold at 20.25musd to Diana. Most likely, the current correction will not break soon the previous lows, because the costs of creating a new asset, ie, newbuilding prices, are well above previous lows and there are still many buyers/funds getting ready to step in, should a further correction in asset values occurs.
Well-timed acquisitions materialize when the others are fearful, when the banks do not lend money, when speculative money becomes disappointed. Nobody knows where we are heading but the recent past has benchmarked a lower bound for assets. As such, there may be longer-term value in modern S&P deals priced up to a 20% premium above the rock-bottom (e.g. a 2006/7 Japanese built Panamax BC at 18musd) and at a respective 10% premium for newbuildings (e.g., rgn/sub 29-30musd for Kamsa NBs from top Chinese yards). We may be getting close to there, but there are strong resistance forces as well.
Perhaps the wildest scenario would arise if the freight market stays depressed for another year and asset prices deteriorate further. What would then be the reaction of the speculative funds that, having a short-term investment horizon anyway, may massively look for an exit? In case this happens, it may signal the biggest asset play opportunity in the coming years.
By Panos Tsilingiris - SnP Broker
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 07 July 14
SOUTH AFRICA'S RICHARDS BAY COAL TERMINAL SHIPPED 12% LESS COAL IN JUNE COMPARED TO MAY EXPORTS
COALspot.com: South Africa's Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT) the world’s single largest export coal terminal, shipped 4.91 million tons ...
Monday, 07 July 14
INDONESIAN SUB-BIT COAL SWAPS FOR Q3 DELIVERY CRASHES THROUGH $ 54.50
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q3’ 2014 lost on day, week and on month according to AsiaClear OTC coal swap's reports re ...
Monday, 07 July 14
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS SHOW A DOWNWARD TREND THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for delivery in Q3 drops US$ 5.47 month on month on Friday, dipping under $68 a ton. The CFR South Ch ...
Sunday, 06 July 14
PANAMAX INDEX BEING THE BIGGEST GAINER THIS WEEK; UP 52.75% W-O-W
COALspot.com: This week there was some positive signs in all the sectors. The Panamax index being the biggest gainer this week after losing for sev ...
Friday, 04 July 14
US: WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION SLIGHTLY UP W-O-W
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 19.4 million short tons (mmst) of coa ...
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- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
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