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Wednesday, 09 July 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS
 The mini-boom in dry bulker values catapulted ship prices too fast too far over the last one-and-a-half year. The concurrence of historically low prices in both second-hand and newbuilding markets, which approached the post Asian crisis lows in inflation-adjusted terms, offered the perfect background for asset play, but this is much easier said than done.
Most real-world buy-low-sell-higher cases concentrated on the flipping of newbuildings contracted at rock-bottom prices when we witnessed Handysize Newbuildings at sub-20musd levels, Ultramaxes at sub-24musd, Kamsarmaxes at rgn 26musd, and Capes at low-mid 40s. Notably, Cargill penned in May 2013 3x180kdwt Capes at SWS, acknowledging they would not operate these ships forever, and by the end of the same year sold them to Scorpio at 57musd each at a stunning rgn10musd profit per vessel. Oldendorff purchased a Crown-63 resale in late 2012 for mid-24s and after trading her, sold her for rgn31musd to Greeks. The same interests recently sold to Diana, a 180k Capesize resale under construction at Qingdao Beihai, for 58musd and a profit in excess of 10musd.
S&P-wise, the appreciation was spectacular on all dry asset classes last year. Regarding LME Panamaxes, ex-Ocean Planet (‘05 Sasebo) was committed in January 2013 by Chartworld at sub-m$15 while ex-Ocean Lily (’06 Imabari) was sold to Sanko close to 25musd this March, resulting in a 2/3 value appreciation in 14mos. While initial appreciation was substantiated, it went on irrationally (mimicry, artificial liquidity by the speculative funds, fear of ‘losing’ the market or even having money in the bank, taxation considerations, low interest rates, etc). On a few S&P asset play cases, in late 2012 Norwegian interests committed the 2006-built Tsuneishi Kamsarmax ex ‘Mizunagi Maru’ arnd 18.4musd and sold her a year later at 23.5musd to Greek interests enjoying a 5musd profit. Chinese owners also got on the bandwagon, having sold two late 90s Capes (m/v Lian Fu Star and m/v Tai Fu Star) to Ukrainians at mid/high teens recording a profit of rgn/xs 5musd per vessel in less than a year.
The current price correction is evidenced by the sale of the ‘Yusho Spica’ at rgn 20musd marked an abrupt 5musd discount from her same-year built sister ‘Ocean Lily’ 3 months ago. This brings asset values back to May 2013 when the ex-Shoyo (76k ’06 Namura) was sold at 20.25musd to Diana. Most likely, the current correction will not break soon the previous lows, because the costs of creating a new asset, ie, newbuilding prices, are well above previous lows and there are still many buyers/funds getting ready to step in, should a further correction in asset values occurs.
Well-timed acquisitions materialize when the others are fearful, when the banks do not lend money, when speculative money becomes disappointed. Nobody knows where we are heading but the recent past has benchmarked a lower bound for assets. As such, there may be longer-term value in modern S&P deals priced up to a 20% premium above the rock-bottom (e.g. a 2006/7 Japanese built Panamax BC at 18musd) and at a respective 10% premium for newbuildings (e.g., rgn/sub 29-30musd for Kamsa NBs from top Chinese yards). We may be getting close to there, but there are strong resistance forces as well.
Perhaps the wildest scenario would arise if the freight market stays depressed for another year and asset prices deteriorate further. What would then be the reaction of the speculative funds that, having a short-term investment horizon anyway, may massively look for an exit? In case this happens, it may signal the biggest asset play opportunity in the coming years.
By Panos Tsilingiris - SnP Broker
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 14 July 14
SGX CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP FOR Q3' 14 LOST 17.29% SINCE EARLY JANUARY 2014
COALspot.com: Coal price falling is continues as the impact oversupply and lower demand. API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for delivery in Q3 drops U ...
Sunday, 13 July 14
PANAMAX INDEX GAINS SLIGHTLY THIS WEEK; CAPE INDEX FALLS ALMOST 21.40%
COALspot.com: This week the freight market fell again after gaining last week. The cape index was down almost 21.40 pct and closed at 1465 points.
...
Friday, 11 July 14
EUROPE HAS A SUBSTANTIAL SURPLUS IN COAL SUPPLIES; RENEWABLE ENERGIES ARE REDUCING THE FULL-LOAD OPERATING HOURS OF HARD COAL-FIRED POWER PLANTS - VDKI
COALspot.com: General conditions for coal-fired power plants must be improved if the energy turnaround is to be a success, said German coal importe ...
Friday, 11 July 14
DR.CIESLIK RE-ELECTED AS CEO OF GERMAN COAL IMPORTER ASSOCIATION (VDKI)
Press Release : Dr Cieslik re-elected as CEO of German Coal Importer Association (VDKi) for the period 2014 – 2018. The German Coal Importer ...
Friday, 11 July 14
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED $ 1.031 BILLION WORTH OF 11.744 MILLION TONS OF COAL IN JUNE 2014
COALspot.com: Port of Newcastle has shipped 11,744,396 tons of coal for the month ended 30 June 2014. According to Port’s monthly report, YTD ...
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- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The University of Queensland
- Planning Commission, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
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