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Tuesday, 08 July 14
ENERGY IN THE MIX - INTERMODAL SHIPBROKERS
 With the Tanker freight market having showed much promise this year compared to the performance that had been noted during the previous five, it is interesting to take on a review and outlook of the energy market as a whole. With the Developing nations having played a catch up gain during most of the 2000’s and having been found in a more advantageous position in terms of their continued economic development after the financial crisis of 2008, a considerable weight has been placed on these economies to drive demand forward for most of the energy commodities such as crude oil, coal and natural gas which play an integral part in shipping. Whilst most regions such as North America and Europe, which historically held the lions share for consumption of energy, have been holding steady in their requirements the Astronomical growth in demand from the Asia Pacific region has been the main source of demand growth for much more than a decade now.
China has been the main reason for those, with a key part having been played in the past by Japan and North Korea as well and India now quickly stepping up to take up it’s as a main contender. As these economies went through their stages of economic development, it was well known that an exponential increase in energy consumption would be one of the main byproducts of this. However, with time another pattern has slowly started to emerge.
Despite the rapid growth of energy consumption per capita, the growing worries regarding sources of energy and the sustainability and “cleanness” of our energy consumption has pushed for an ever more efficient and innovative mix of energy consumption, in turn driving for an ever slower growth of energy demand compared to the average GDP growth of the global economy. As pointed out earlier this year by the BP in its Energy outlook report, the amount of energy required per unit of GDP is expected to decline by 1.9% per year over the next 20 years while this figure is more than double the decline rate that was noted in the past decade. This means that we are slowly moving to a higher independence from energy, requiring less input to achieve an ever higher economic output. This could even prove to be an underestimate as typically energy plays a more primal role at the early stages of economic development and once both China and India (the current mammoths of global economic growth) get past this stage, they will likely shift their needs respectively causing a further slowdown in energy consumption per GDP.
A second point which will prove to be of more vital importance, though the trend seems to be moving at a slower pace, is how the world economy as a whole is slowly moving away from fossil fuels towards renewable sources of energy, with the latter expected to take a further 5% from the energy mix within the next 20 years. This has its significance on the shipping industry, as its fossil fuels that are transported by sea and they also take up a considerable portion of world seaborne trade.
Further to this we have seen a rapid shift amongst the preference of fossil fuels within the energy consumption mix. Oil has continued its rapid decline is close to losing its dominant position as the primary source of energy, while Coal has made considerable leaps over the past decade with natural gas following close behind. This has been evident within trade as well as the dry bulk market has significantly benefited from the growing importance of coal while the tanker market has been struggling to see an equal amount of growth in demand even before the crisis. This has followed through with an increasing amount of innovation in oil exploration such as that of tight oil and shale gas. This has been one of the important factors why we have seen a shift in trade with the U.S. decreasing its Crude oil imports last year by almost 40 million tonnes, while it was mainly thanks to China and India which in-creased theirs by 11 and 13 million tonnes respectively which helped cover much of this gap and provide the tanker market with some support.
Going forward, it is increasingly difficult to see any support from the market fundamentals that could provide a justification to a fast paced increase in tanker tonnage. Tonne miles are running shorter and shorter and although the demand for the commodity is there it seems that there isn’t much room for further growth in the fleet. The big promise that was West Africa in helping create further tonne-miles will likely be outshined by the slowly increasing production from East and Southern Africa. The Middle East still holds its top podium position with regards to trade exports and is situated fairly close to both China and India when compared to the distance VLs had to take to go around the Cape to get to the U.S. At the same time we expect more pipeline deals with the Far East to be struck by the other main exporter which is Russia.
In conclusion, there may well be an optimistic growth in demand for energy commodities such as crude oil, however it is looking increasingly difficult for this to translate over to increased seaborne trade and although Chinese and India Consumption will likely rise rapidly over the next couple of years , unless there is a rapid change in regional energy imbalances, the growth in shipping requirements is set to hold at a fairly slow pace.
- George Lazaridis - Research Analyst -
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 06 June 14
RICHARDS BAY COAL TERMINAL SHIPPED 4.221 MMT OF COAL TO SOUTHERN ASIAN COUNTRIES IN MAY
COALspot.com: South Africa's Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT) the single largest export coal terminal in the world, shipped 5.58 million tons ...
Thursday, 05 June 14
RBCT SOUTH AFRICA SHIPPED 21% LESS COAL IN APRIL COMPARED TO MARCH EXPORTS
COALspot.com: South Africa's Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT) the single largest export coal terminal in the world, shipped 5.45 million tons ...
Thursday, 05 June 14
PANAMAX : THIS WEEK STARTED IN A SLOW PACE - FEARNLEYS
Handy
After last week's silent and unexciting week we see some more activity this week, especially from the South American market. The rates ...
Thursday, 05 June 14
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 2.91 MMT OF COAL IN THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: The figure constitutes a 4.30 percent higher compared to the previous week, following a week on week decreased of 19.13 percent recor ...
Wednesday, 04 June 14
SKULD: DIVERSIFICATION AND A ROBUST BOTTOM LINE
In February, I was delighted to ring in the new policy year with the Skuld team following a solid renewal round and a strong year. 2013 was, in man ...
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- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The University of Queensland
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Minerals Council of Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Australian Coal Association
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
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