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Tuesday, 08 July 14
ENERGY IN THE MIX - INTERMODAL SHIPBROKERS
With the Tanker freight market having showed much promise this year compared to the performance that had been noted during the previous five, it is interesting to take on a review and outlook of the energy market as a whole. With the Developing nations having played a catch up gain during most of the 2000’s and having been found in a more advantageous position in terms of their continued economic development after the financial crisis of 2008, a considerable weight has been placed on these economies to drive demand forward for most of the energy commodities such as crude oil, coal and natural gas which play an integral part in shipping. Whilst most regions such as North America and Europe, which historically held the lions share for consumption of energy, have been holding steady in their requirements the Astronomical growth in demand from the Asia Pacific region has been the main source of demand growth for much more than a decade now.
China has been the main reason for those, with a key part having been played in the past by Japan and North Korea as well and India now quickly stepping up to take up it’s as a main contender. As these economies went through their stages of economic development, it was well known that an exponential increase in energy consumption would be one of the main byproducts of this. However, with time another pattern has slowly started to emerge.
Despite the rapid growth of energy consumption per capita, the growing worries regarding sources of energy and the sustainability and “cleanness” of our energy consumption has pushed for an ever more efficient and innovative mix of energy consumption, in turn driving for an ever slower growth of energy demand compared to the average GDP growth of the global economy. As pointed out earlier this year by the BP in its Energy outlook report, the amount of energy required per unit of GDP is expected to decline by 1.9% per year over the next 20 years while this figure is more than double the decline rate that was noted in the past decade. This means that we are slowly moving to a higher independence from energy, requiring less input to achieve an ever higher economic output. This could even prove to be an underestimate as typically energy plays a more primal role at the early stages of economic development and once both China and India (the current mammoths of global economic growth) get past this stage, they will likely shift their needs respectively causing a further slowdown in energy consumption per GDP.
A second point which will prove to be of more vital importance, though the trend seems to be moving at a slower pace, is how the world economy as a whole is slowly moving away from fossil fuels towards renewable sources of energy, with the latter expected to take a further 5% from the energy mix within the next 20 years. This has its significance on the shipping industry, as its fossil fuels that are transported by sea and they also take up a considerable portion of world seaborne trade.
Further to this we have seen a rapid shift amongst the preference of fossil fuels within the energy consumption mix. Oil has continued its rapid decline is close to losing its dominant position as the primary source of energy, while Coal has made considerable leaps over the past decade with natural gas following close behind. This has been evident within trade as well as the dry bulk market has significantly benefited from the growing importance of coal while the tanker market has been struggling to see an equal amount of growth in demand even before the crisis. This has followed through with an increasing amount of innovation in oil exploration such as that of tight oil and shale gas. This has been one of the important factors why we have seen a shift in trade with the U.S. decreasing its Crude oil imports last year by almost 40 million tonnes, while it was mainly thanks to China and India which in-creased theirs by 11 and 13 million tonnes respectively which helped cover much of this gap and provide the tanker market with some support.
Going forward, it is increasingly difficult to see any support from the market fundamentals that could provide a justification to a fast paced increase in tanker tonnage. Tonne miles are running shorter and shorter and although the demand for the commodity is there it seems that there isn’t much room for further growth in the fleet. The big promise that was West Africa in helping create further tonne-miles will likely be outshined by the slowly increasing production from East and Southern Africa. The Middle East still holds its top podium position with regards to trade exports and is situated fairly close to both China and India when compared to the distance VLs had to take to go around the Cape to get to the U.S. At the same time we expect more pipeline deals with the Far East to be struck by the other main exporter which is Russia.
In conclusion, there may well be an optimistic growth in demand for energy commodities such as crude oil, however it is looking increasingly difficult for this to translate over to increased seaborne trade and although Chinese and India Consumption will likely rise rapidly over the next couple of years , unless there is a rapid change in regional energy imbalances, the growth in shipping requirements is set to hold at a fairly slow pace.
- George Lazaridis - Research Analyst -
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 06 June 14
RICHARDS BAY COAL TERMINAL SHIPPED 4.221 MMT OF COAL TO SOUTHERN ASIAN COUNTRIES IN MAY
COALspot.com: South Africa's Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT) the single largest export coal terminal in the world, shipped 5.58 million tons ...
Thursday, 05 June 14
RBCT SOUTH AFRICA SHIPPED 21% LESS COAL IN APRIL COMPARED TO MARCH EXPORTS
COALspot.com: South Africa's Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT) the single largest export coal terminal in the world, shipped 5.45 million tons ...
Thursday, 05 June 14
PANAMAX : THIS WEEK STARTED IN A SLOW PACE - FEARNLEYS
Handy
After last week's silent and unexciting week we see some more activity this week, especially from the South American market. The rates ...
Thursday, 05 June 14
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 2.91 MMT OF COAL IN THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: The figure constitutes a 4.30 percent higher compared to the previous week, following a week on week decreased of 19.13 percent recor ...
Wednesday, 04 June 14
SKULD: DIVERSIFICATION AND A ROBUST BOTTOM LINE
In February, I was delighted to ring in the new policy year with the Skuld team following a solid renewal round and a strong year. 2013 was, in man ...
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- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PTC India Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
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