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Tuesday, 08 July 14
ENERGY IN THE MIX - INTERMODAL SHIPBROKERS
 With the Tanker freight market having showed much promise this year compared to the performance that had been noted during the previous five, it is interesting to take on a review and outlook of the energy market as a whole. With the Developing nations having played a catch up gain during most of the 2000’s and having been found in a more advantageous position in terms of their continued economic development after the financial crisis of 2008, a considerable weight has been placed on these economies to drive demand forward for most of the energy commodities such as crude oil, coal and natural gas which play an integral part in shipping. Whilst most regions such as North America and Europe, which historically held the lions share for consumption of energy, have been holding steady in their requirements the Astronomical growth in demand from the Asia Pacific region has been the main source of demand growth for much more than a decade now.
China has been the main reason for those, with a key part having been played in the past by Japan and North Korea as well and India now quickly stepping up to take up it’s as a main contender. As these economies went through their stages of economic development, it was well known that an exponential increase in energy consumption would be one of the main byproducts of this. However, with time another pattern has slowly started to emerge.
Despite the rapid growth of energy consumption per capita, the growing worries regarding sources of energy and the sustainability and “cleanness” of our energy consumption has pushed for an ever more efficient and innovative mix of energy consumption, in turn driving for an ever slower growth of energy demand compared to the average GDP growth of the global economy. As pointed out earlier this year by the BP in its Energy outlook report, the amount of energy required per unit of GDP is expected to decline by 1.9% per year over the next 20 years while this figure is more than double the decline rate that was noted in the past decade. This means that we are slowly moving to a higher independence from energy, requiring less input to achieve an ever higher economic output. This could even prove to be an underestimate as typically energy plays a more primal role at the early stages of economic development and once both China and India (the current mammoths of global economic growth) get past this stage, they will likely shift their needs respectively causing a further slowdown in energy consumption per GDP.
A second point which will prove to be of more vital importance, though the trend seems to be moving at a slower pace, is how the world economy as a whole is slowly moving away from fossil fuels towards renewable sources of energy, with the latter expected to take a further 5% from the energy mix within the next 20 years. This has its significance on the shipping industry, as its fossil fuels that are transported by sea and they also take up a considerable portion of world seaborne trade.
Further to this we have seen a rapid shift amongst the preference of fossil fuels within the energy consumption mix. Oil has continued its rapid decline is close to losing its dominant position as the primary source of energy, while Coal has made considerable leaps over the past decade with natural gas following close behind. This has been evident within trade as well as the dry bulk market has significantly benefited from the growing importance of coal while the tanker market has been struggling to see an equal amount of growth in demand even before the crisis. This has followed through with an increasing amount of innovation in oil exploration such as that of tight oil and shale gas. This has been one of the important factors why we have seen a shift in trade with the U.S. decreasing its Crude oil imports last year by almost 40 million tonnes, while it was mainly thanks to China and India which in-creased theirs by 11 and 13 million tonnes respectively which helped cover much of this gap and provide the tanker market with some support.
Going forward, it is increasingly difficult to see any support from the market fundamentals that could provide a justification to a fast paced increase in tanker tonnage. Tonne miles are running shorter and shorter and although the demand for the commodity is there it seems that there isn’t much room for further growth in the fleet. The big promise that was West Africa in helping create further tonne-miles will likely be outshined by the slowly increasing production from East and Southern Africa. The Middle East still holds its top podium position with regards to trade exports and is situated fairly close to both China and India when compared to the distance VLs had to take to go around the Cape to get to the U.S. At the same time we expect more pipeline deals with the Far East to be struck by the other main exporter which is Russia.
In conclusion, there may well be an optimistic growth in demand for energy commodities such as crude oil, however it is looking increasingly difficult for this to translate over to increased seaborne trade and although Chinese and India Consumption will likely rise rapidly over the next couple of years , unless there is a rapid change in regional energy imbalances, the growth in shipping requirements is set to hold at a fairly slow pace.
- George Lazaridis - Research Analyst -
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 12 June 14
CONSOLIDATION IS THE ' NAME OF THE GAME' WHEN IT COMES TO SHIPYARDS ACROSS ASIA - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Intense competition, a swelling of new greenfield shipyards over the past few years mainly in China, especially prior to the 2008 global financial ...
Wednesday, 11 June 14
INDONESIA'S COAL EXPORT VOLUME AND REVENUE SLIPS 2.75% AND 6.73% RESPECTIVELY IN APRIL
COALspot.com: Indonesia, one of the world's largest coal producer and the global largest multi grade coal exporter shipped around $1.8* b ...
Wednesday, 11 June 14
BPI TOUCHING A NEW LOW FOR THE YEAR
The Dry Bulk market closed off the week positively, on the back of firming Capesize rates, while the market overall continues to face a very challe ...
Monday, 09 June 14
GOVT GETS TOUGH ON ILLEGAL MINING, SUSPENDS LICENSES - THE JAKARTA POST
The government has temporarily suspended the licenses of 62 mineral and coal transportation companies as part of its efforts to curb illegal mining ...
Monday, 09 June 14
INDO SUB-BIT COAL SWAPS FOR Q3,Q4 OF 2014 AND Q1 2015: LOST ON DAY AND MONTH
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q3’ 2014 continue last week’s trend or lost on day, week and on month according to Asia ...
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- Bhatia International Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
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