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Tuesday, 08 July 14
ENERGY IN THE MIX - INTERMODAL SHIPBROKERS
 With the Tanker freight market having showed much promise this year compared to the performance that had been noted during the previous five, it is interesting to take on a review and outlook of the energy market as a whole. With the Developing nations having played a catch up gain during most of the 2000’s and having been found in a more advantageous position in terms of their continued economic development after the financial crisis of 2008, a considerable weight has been placed on these economies to drive demand forward for most of the energy commodities such as crude oil, coal and natural gas which play an integral part in shipping. Whilst most regions such as North America and Europe, which historically held the lions share for consumption of energy, have been holding steady in their requirements the Astronomical growth in demand from the Asia Pacific region has been the main source of demand growth for much more than a decade now.
China has been the main reason for those, with a key part having been played in the past by Japan and North Korea as well and India now quickly stepping up to take up it’s as a main contender. As these economies went through their stages of economic development, it was well known that an exponential increase in energy consumption would be one of the main byproducts of this. However, with time another pattern has slowly started to emerge.
Despite the rapid growth of energy consumption per capita, the growing worries regarding sources of energy and the sustainability and “cleanness” of our energy consumption has pushed for an ever more efficient and innovative mix of energy consumption, in turn driving for an ever slower growth of energy demand compared to the average GDP growth of the global economy. As pointed out earlier this year by the BP in its Energy outlook report, the amount of energy required per unit of GDP is expected to decline by 1.9% per year over the next 20 years while this figure is more than double the decline rate that was noted in the past decade. This means that we are slowly moving to a higher independence from energy, requiring less input to achieve an ever higher economic output. This could even prove to be an underestimate as typically energy plays a more primal role at the early stages of economic development and once both China and India (the current mammoths of global economic growth) get past this stage, they will likely shift their needs respectively causing a further slowdown in energy consumption per GDP.
A second point which will prove to be of more vital importance, though the trend seems to be moving at a slower pace, is how the world economy as a whole is slowly moving away from fossil fuels towards renewable sources of energy, with the latter expected to take a further 5% from the energy mix within the next 20 years. This has its significance on the shipping industry, as its fossil fuels that are transported by sea and they also take up a considerable portion of world seaborne trade.
Further to this we have seen a rapid shift amongst the preference of fossil fuels within the energy consumption mix. Oil has continued its rapid decline is close to losing its dominant position as the primary source of energy, while Coal has made considerable leaps over the past decade with natural gas following close behind. This has been evident within trade as well as the dry bulk market has significantly benefited from the growing importance of coal while the tanker market has been struggling to see an equal amount of growth in demand even before the crisis. This has followed through with an increasing amount of innovation in oil exploration such as that of tight oil and shale gas. This has been one of the important factors why we have seen a shift in trade with the U.S. decreasing its Crude oil imports last year by almost 40 million tonnes, while it was mainly thanks to China and India which in-creased theirs by 11 and 13 million tonnes respectively which helped cover much of this gap and provide the tanker market with some support.
Going forward, it is increasingly difficult to see any support from the market fundamentals that could provide a justification to a fast paced increase in tanker tonnage. Tonne miles are running shorter and shorter and although the demand for the commodity is there it seems that there isn’t much room for further growth in the fleet. The big promise that was West Africa in helping create further tonne-miles will likely be outshined by the slowly increasing production from East and Southern Africa. The Middle East still holds its top podium position with regards to trade exports and is situated fairly close to both China and India when compared to the distance VLs had to take to go around the Cape to get to the U.S. At the same time we expect more pipeline deals with the Far East to be struck by the other main exporter which is Russia.
In conclusion, there may well be an optimistic growth in demand for energy commodities such as crude oil, however it is looking increasingly difficult for this to translate over to increased seaborne trade and although Chinese and India Consumption will likely rise rapidly over the next couple of years , unless there is a rapid change in regional energy imbalances, the growth in shipping requirements is set to hold at a fairly slow pace.
- George Lazaridis - Research Analyst -
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 12 June 14
CONSOLIDATION IS THE ' NAME OF THE GAME' WHEN IT COMES TO SHIPYARDS ACROSS ASIA - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Intense competition, a swelling of new greenfield shipyards over the past few years mainly in China, especially prior to the 2008 global financial ...
Wednesday, 11 June 14
INDONESIA'S COAL EXPORT VOLUME AND REVENUE SLIPS 2.75% AND 6.73% RESPECTIVELY IN APRIL
COALspot.com: Indonesia, one of the world's largest coal producer and the global largest multi grade coal exporter shipped around $1.8* b ...
Wednesday, 11 June 14
BPI TOUCHING A NEW LOW FOR THE YEAR
The Dry Bulk market closed off the week positively, on the back of firming Capesize rates, while the market overall continues to face a very challe ...
Monday, 09 June 14
GOVT GETS TOUGH ON ILLEGAL MINING, SUSPENDS LICENSES - THE JAKARTA POST
The government has temporarily suspended the licenses of 62 mineral and coal transportation companies as part of its efforts to curb illegal mining ...
Monday, 09 June 14
INDO SUB-BIT COAL SWAPS FOR Q3,Q4 OF 2014 AND Q1 2015: LOST ON DAY AND MONTH
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q3’ 2014 continue last week’s trend or lost on day, week and on month according to Asia ...
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- Planning Commission, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The University of Queensland
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- MS Steel International - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PTC India Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
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