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Tuesday, 08 July 14
ENERGY IN THE MIX - INTERMODAL SHIPBROKERS
 With the Tanker freight market having showed much promise this year compared to the performance that had been noted during the previous five, it is interesting to take on a review and outlook of the energy market as a whole. With the Developing nations having played a catch up gain during most of the 2000’s and having been found in a more advantageous position in terms of their continued economic development after the financial crisis of 2008, a considerable weight has been placed on these economies to drive demand forward for most of the energy commodities such as crude oil, coal and natural gas which play an integral part in shipping. Whilst most regions such as North America and Europe, which historically held the lions share for consumption of energy, have been holding steady in their requirements the Astronomical growth in demand from the Asia Pacific region has been the main source of demand growth for much more than a decade now.
China has been the main reason for those, with a key part having been played in the past by Japan and North Korea as well and India now quickly stepping up to take up it’s as a main contender. As these economies went through their stages of economic development, it was well known that an exponential increase in energy consumption would be one of the main byproducts of this. However, with time another pattern has slowly started to emerge.
Despite the rapid growth of energy consumption per capita, the growing worries regarding sources of energy and the sustainability and “cleanness” of our energy consumption has pushed for an ever more efficient and innovative mix of energy consumption, in turn driving for an ever slower growth of energy demand compared to the average GDP growth of the global economy. As pointed out earlier this year by the BP in its Energy outlook report, the amount of energy required per unit of GDP is expected to decline by 1.9% per year over the next 20 years while this figure is more than double the decline rate that was noted in the past decade. This means that we are slowly moving to a higher independence from energy, requiring less input to achieve an ever higher economic output. This could even prove to be an underestimate as typically energy plays a more primal role at the early stages of economic development and once both China and India (the current mammoths of global economic growth) get past this stage, they will likely shift their needs respectively causing a further slowdown in energy consumption per GDP.
A second point which will prove to be of more vital importance, though the trend seems to be moving at a slower pace, is how the world economy as a whole is slowly moving away from fossil fuels towards renewable sources of energy, with the latter expected to take a further 5% from the energy mix within the next 20 years. This has its significance on the shipping industry, as its fossil fuels that are transported by sea and they also take up a considerable portion of world seaborne trade.
Further to this we have seen a rapid shift amongst the preference of fossil fuels within the energy consumption mix. Oil has continued its rapid decline is close to losing its dominant position as the primary source of energy, while Coal has made considerable leaps over the past decade with natural gas following close behind. This has been evident within trade as well as the dry bulk market has significantly benefited from the growing importance of coal while the tanker market has been struggling to see an equal amount of growth in demand even before the crisis. This has followed through with an increasing amount of innovation in oil exploration such as that of tight oil and shale gas. This has been one of the important factors why we have seen a shift in trade with the U.S. decreasing its Crude oil imports last year by almost 40 million tonnes, while it was mainly thanks to China and India which in-creased theirs by 11 and 13 million tonnes respectively which helped cover much of this gap and provide the tanker market with some support.
Going forward, it is increasingly difficult to see any support from the market fundamentals that could provide a justification to a fast paced increase in tanker tonnage. Tonne miles are running shorter and shorter and although the demand for the commodity is there it seems that there isn’t much room for further growth in the fleet. The big promise that was West Africa in helping create further tonne-miles will likely be outshined by the slowly increasing production from East and Southern Africa. The Middle East still holds its top podium position with regards to trade exports and is situated fairly close to both China and India when compared to the distance VLs had to take to go around the Cape to get to the U.S. At the same time we expect more pipeline deals with the Far East to be struck by the other main exporter which is Russia.
In conclusion, there may well be an optimistic growth in demand for energy commodities such as crude oil, however it is looking increasingly difficult for this to translate over to increased seaborne trade and although Chinese and India Consumption will likely rise rapidly over the next couple of years , unless there is a rapid change in regional energy imbalances, the growth in shipping requirements is set to hold at a fairly slow pace.
- George Lazaridis - Research Analyst -
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 02 June 14
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS LOST GROUND THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q3’ 2014 lost on day, week and on month according to AsiaClear OTC coal swap's reports re ...
Monday, 02 June 14
SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP WAS SHOWING A POSITIVE MOVE IN Q4, INSTEAD OF THIS WEEK'S WEAK TREND
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q3 14 deliveries lost 3.39 percent month on month and closed at US$ 72.65 per mt as on F ...
Sunday, 01 June 14
INDO - INDIA SUPRMAX FREIGHT RATES CONTINUED TO DOWN THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The freight market was soft this past week as all sectors soften particularly Panamax index was lost 129 points or 12.88% week on wee ...
Friday, 30 May 14
CLEAN COAL PROCESSING & CONVERSION ASIA SUMMIT 2014
Clean Coal Processing & Conversion Asia Summit 2014 will be held on Nov 20-21st, 2014 in Jakarta, Indonesia.
With the cooperation of ...
Friday, 30 May 14
US COAL PRODUCTION RELATIVELY FLAT WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 18.6 million short tons (mmst) of coal in a ...
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- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
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