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Tuesday, 08 July 14
ENERGY IN THE MIX - INTERMODAL SHIPBROKERS
 With the Tanker freight market having showed much promise this year compared to the performance that had been noted during the previous five, it is interesting to take on a review and outlook of the energy market as a whole. With the Developing nations having played a catch up gain during most of the 2000’s and having been found in a more advantageous position in terms of their continued economic development after the financial crisis of 2008, a considerable weight has been placed on these economies to drive demand forward for most of the energy commodities such as crude oil, coal and natural gas which play an integral part in shipping. Whilst most regions such as North America and Europe, which historically held the lions share for consumption of energy, have been holding steady in their requirements the Astronomical growth in demand from the Asia Pacific region has been the main source of demand growth for much more than a decade now.
China has been the main reason for those, with a key part having been played in the past by Japan and North Korea as well and India now quickly stepping up to take up it’s as a main contender. As these economies went through their stages of economic development, it was well known that an exponential increase in energy consumption would be one of the main byproducts of this. However, with time another pattern has slowly started to emerge.
Despite the rapid growth of energy consumption per capita, the growing worries regarding sources of energy and the sustainability and “cleanness” of our energy consumption has pushed for an ever more efficient and innovative mix of energy consumption, in turn driving for an ever slower growth of energy demand compared to the average GDP growth of the global economy. As pointed out earlier this year by the BP in its Energy outlook report, the amount of energy required per unit of GDP is expected to decline by 1.9% per year over the next 20 years while this figure is more than double the decline rate that was noted in the past decade. This means that we are slowly moving to a higher independence from energy, requiring less input to achieve an ever higher economic output. This could even prove to be an underestimate as typically energy plays a more primal role at the early stages of economic development and once both China and India (the current mammoths of global economic growth) get past this stage, they will likely shift their needs respectively causing a further slowdown in energy consumption per GDP.
A second point which will prove to be of more vital importance, though the trend seems to be moving at a slower pace, is how the world economy as a whole is slowly moving away from fossil fuels towards renewable sources of energy, with the latter expected to take a further 5% from the energy mix within the next 20 years. This has its significance on the shipping industry, as its fossil fuels that are transported by sea and they also take up a considerable portion of world seaborne trade.
Further to this we have seen a rapid shift amongst the preference of fossil fuels within the energy consumption mix. Oil has continued its rapid decline is close to losing its dominant position as the primary source of energy, while Coal has made considerable leaps over the past decade with natural gas following close behind. This has been evident within trade as well as the dry bulk market has significantly benefited from the growing importance of coal while the tanker market has been struggling to see an equal amount of growth in demand even before the crisis. This has followed through with an increasing amount of innovation in oil exploration such as that of tight oil and shale gas. This has been one of the important factors why we have seen a shift in trade with the U.S. decreasing its Crude oil imports last year by almost 40 million tonnes, while it was mainly thanks to China and India which in-creased theirs by 11 and 13 million tonnes respectively which helped cover much of this gap and provide the tanker market with some support.
Going forward, it is increasingly difficult to see any support from the market fundamentals that could provide a justification to a fast paced increase in tanker tonnage. Tonne miles are running shorter and shorter and although the demand for the commodity is there it seems that there isn’t much room for further growth in the fleet. The big promise that was West Africa in helping create further tonne-miles will likely be outshined by the slowly increasing production from East and Southern Africa. The Middle East still holds its top podium position with regards to trade exports and is situated fairly close to both China and India when compared to the distance VLs had to take to go around the Cape to get to the U.S. At the same time we expect more pipeline deals with the Far East to be struck by the other main exporter which is Russia.
In conclusion, there may well be an optimistic growth in demand for energy commodities such as crude oil, however it is looking increasingly difficult for this to translate over to increased seaborne trade and although Chinese and India Consumption will likely rise rapidly over the next couple of years , unless there is a rapid change in regional energy imbalances, the growth in shipping requirements is set to hold at a fairly slow pace.
- George Lazaridis - Research Analyst -
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 02 June 14
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS LOST GROUND THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q3’ 2014 lost on day, week and on month according to AsiaClear OTC coal swap's reports re ...
Monday, 02 June 14
SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP WAS SHOWING A POSITIVE MOVE IN Q4, INSTEAD OF THIS WEEK'S WEAK TREND
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q3 14 deliveries lost 3.39 percent month on month and closed at US$ 72.65 per mt as on F ...
Sunday, 01 June 14
INDO - INDIA SUPRMAX FREIGHT RATES CONTINUED TO DOWN THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The freight market was soft this past week as all sectors soften particularly Panamax index was lost 129 points or 12.88% week on wee ...
Friday, 30 May 14
CLEAN COAL PROCESSING & CONVERSION ASIA SUMMIT 2014
Clean Coal Processing & Conversion Asia Summit 2014 will be held on Nov 20-21st, 2014 in Jakarta, Indonesia.
With the cooperation of ...
Friday, 30 May 14
US COAL PRODUCTION RELATIVELY FLAT WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 18.6 million short tons (mmst) of coal in a ...
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- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The University of Queensland
- PTC India Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
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