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Tuesday, 08 July 14
ENERGY IN THE MIX - INTERMODAL SHIPBROKERS
 With the Tanker freight market having showed much promise this year compared to the performance that had been noted during the previous five, it is interesting to take on a review and outlook of the energy market as a whole. With the Developing nations having played a catch up gain during most of the 2000’s and having been found in a more advantageous position in terms of their continued economic development after the financial crisis of 2008, a considerable weight has been placed on these economies to drive demand forward for most of the energy commodities such as crude oil, coal and natural gas which play an integral part in shipping. Whilst most regions such as North America and Europe, which historically held the lions share for consumption of energy, have been holding steady in their requirements the Astronomical growth in demand from the Asia Pacific region has been the main source of demand growth for much more than a decade now.
China has been the main reason for those, with a key part having been played in the past by Japan and North Korea as well and India now quickly stepping up to take up it’s as a main contender. As these economies went through their stages of economic development, it was well known that an exponential increase in energy consumption would be one of the main byproducts of this. However, with time another pattern has slowly started to emerge.
Despite the rapid growth of energy consumption per capita, the growing worries regarding sources of energy and the sustainability and “cleanness” of our energy consumption has pushed for an ever more efficient and innovative mix of energy consumption, in turn driving for an ever slower growth of energy demand compared to the average GDP growth of the global economy. As pointed out earlier this year by the BP in its Energy outlook report, the amount of energy required per unit of GDP is expected to decline by 1.9% per year over the next 20 years while this figure is more than double the decline rate that was noted in the past decade. This means that we are slowly moving to a higher independence from energy, requiring less input to achieve an ever higher economic output. This could even prove to be an underestimate as typically energy plays a more primal role at the early stages of economic development and once both China and India (the current mammoths of global economic growth) get past this stage, they will likely shift their needs respectively causing a further slowdown in energy consumption per GDP.
A second point which will prove to be of more vital importance, though the trend seems to be moving at a slower pace, is how the world economy as a whole is slowly moving away from fossil fuels towards renewable sources of energy, with the latter expected to take a further 5% from the energy mix within the next 20 years. This has its significance on the shipping industry, as its fossil fuels that are transported by sea and they also take up a considerable portion of world seaborne trade.
Further to this we have seen a rapid shift amongst the preference of fossil fuels within the energy consumption mix. Oil has continued its rapid decline is close to losing its dominant position as the primary source of energy, while Coal has made considerable leaps over the past decade with natural gas following close behind. This has been evident within trade as well as the dry bulk market has significantly benefited from the growing importance of coal while the tanker market has been struggling to see an equal amount of growth in demand even before the crisis. This has followed through with an increasing amount of innovation in oil exploration such as that of tight oil and shale gas. This has been one of the important factors why we have seen a shift in trade with the U.S. decreasing its Crude oil imports last year by almost 40 million tonnes, while it was mainly thanks to China and India which in-creased theirs by 11 and 13 million tonnes respectively which helped cover much of this gap and provide the tanker market with some support.
Going forward, it is increasingly difficult to see any support from the market fundamentals that could provide a justification to a fast paced increase in tanker tonnage. Tonne miles are running shorter and shorter and although the demand for the commodity is there it seems that there isn’t much room for further growth in the fleet. The big promise that was West Africa in helping create further tonne-miles will likely be outshined by the slowly increasing production from East and Southern Africa. The Middle East still holds its top podium position with regards to trade exports and is situated fairly close to both China and India when compared to the distance VLs had to take to go around the Cape to get to the U.S. At the same time we expect more pipeline deals with the Far East to be struck by the other main exporter which is Russia.
In conclusion, there may well be an optimistic growth in demand for energy commodities such as crude oil, however it is looking increasingly difficult for this to translate over to increased seaborne trade and although Chinese and India Consumption will likely rise rapidly over the next couple of years , unless there is a rapid change in regional energy imbalances, the growth in shipping requirements is set to hold at a fairly slow pace.
- George Lazaridis - Research Analyst -
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 09 June 14
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP Q3 14 DELIVERIES LOST 4.61% M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q3 14 deliveries lost 4.61 percent month on month and closed at US$ 71.62 per mt a ...
Sunday, 08 June 14
DRY BULK MARKET RATES FOR PANAMXES TO REMAIN VOLATILE; NO IMPROVEMENTS SEEN OVER THE WEEK
COALspot.com: Cape index increase pushes BDI index to 989 points week on week. The BDI firmed up by 5.88 pct and closed at 989 points week ended 6 ...
Saturday, 07 June 14
EVERYTHING CHANGES, AND NOTHING ABIDES - HERACLITUS
A couple of weeks ago, and while everyone was focusing on the struggling freight market, Russia and China made history by signing a three-decade lo ...
Saturday, 07 June 14
FIRST BITE AT ANTI-CORRUPTION CLAUSE - BIMCO
In recent years a number of countries have introduced anti-corruption legislation which, unfortunately, fails to recognise the practical implicatio ...
Saturday, 07 June 14
U.S. MONTHLY COAL PRODUCTION SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN MAY 2014
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 19.2 million short tons (mmst) of coal in a ...
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Australian Coal Association
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
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