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Tuesday, 08 July 14
ENERGY IN THE MIX - INTERMODAL SHIPBROKERS
 With the Tanker freight market having showed much promise this year compared to the performance that had been noted during the previous five, it is interesting to take on a review and outlook of the energy market as a whole. With the Developing nations having played a catch up gain during most of the 2000’s and having been found in a more advantageous position in terms of their continued economic development after the financial crisis of 2008, a considerable weight has been placed on these economies to drive demand forward for most of the energy commodities such as crude oil, coal and natural gas which play an integral part in shipping. Whilst most regions such as North America and Europe, which historically held the lions share for consumption of energy, have been holding steady in their requirements the Astronomical growth in demand from the Asia Pacific region has been the main source of demand growth for much more than a decade now.
China has been the main reason for those, with a key part having been played in the past by Japan and North Korea as well and India now quickly stepping up to take up it’s as a main contender. As these economies went through their stages of economic development, it was well known that an exponential increase in energy consumption would be one of the main byproducts of this. However, with time another pattern has slowly started to emerge.
Despite the rapid growth of energy consumption per capita, the growing worries regarding sources of energy and the sustainability and “cleanness” of our energy consumption has pushed for an ever more efficient and innovative mix of energy consumption, in turn driving for an ever slower growth of energy demand compared to the average GDP growth of the global economy. As pointed out earlier this year by the BP in its Energy outlook report, the amount of energy required per unit of GDP is expected to decline by 1.9% per year over the next 20 years while this figure is more than double the decline rate that was noted in the past decade. This means that we are slowly moving to a higher independence from energy, requiring less input to achieve an ever higher economic output. This could even prove to be an underestimate as typically energy plays a more primal role at the early stages of economic development and once both China and India (the current mammoths of global economic growth) get past this stage, they will likely shift their needs respectively causing a further slowdown in energy consumption per GDP.
A second point which will prove to be of more vital importance, though the trend seems to be moving at a slower pace, is how the world economy as a whole is slowly moving away from fossil fuels towards renewable sources of energy, with the latter expected to take a further 5% from the energy mix within the next 20 years. This has its significance on the shipping industry, as its fossil fuels that are transported by sea and they also take up a considerable portion of world seaborne trade.
Further to this we have seen a rapid shift amongst the preference of fossil fuels within the energy consumption mix. Oil has continued its rapid decline is close to losing its dominant position as the primary source of energy, while Coal has made considerable leaps over the past decade with natural gas following close behind. This has been evident within trade as well as the dry bulk market has significantly benefited from the growing importance of coal while the tanker market has been struggling to see an equal amount of growth in demand even before the crisis. This has followed through with an increasing amount of innovation in oil exploration such as that of tight oil and shale gas. This has been one of the important factors why we have seen a shift in trade with the U.S. decreasing its Crude oil imports last year by almost 40 million tonnes, while it was mainly thanks to China and India which in-creased theirs by 11 and 13 million tonnes respectively which helped cover much of this gap and provide the tanker market with some support.
Going forward, it is increasingly difficult to see any support from the market fundamentals that could provide a justification to a fast paced increase in tanker tonnage. Tonne miles are running shorter and shorter and although the demand for the commodity is there it seems that there isn’t much room for further growth in the fleet. The big promise that was West Africa in helping create further tonne-miles will likely be outshined by the slowly increasing production from East and Southern Africa. The Middle East still holds its top podium position with regards to trade exports and is situated fairly close to both China and India when compared to the distance VLs had to take to go around the Cape to get to the U.S. At the same time we expect more pipeline deals with the Far East to be struck by the other main exporter which is Russia.
In conclusion, there may well be an optimistic growth in demand for energy commodities such as crude oil, however it is looking increasingly difficult for this to translate over to increased seaborne trade and although Chinese and India Consumption will likely rise rapidly over the next couple of years , unless there is a rapid change in regional energy imbalances, the growth in shipping requirements is set to hold at a fairly slow pace.
- George Lazaridis - Research Analyst -
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 29 May 14
PEABODY ENERGY CHAIRMAN RECEIVES WCA AWARD
The World Coal Association has presented Gregory H. Boyce, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Peabody Energy (NYSE: BTU), with the 2014 Chairm ...
Thursday, 29 May 14
HANDY : THE SUPRAS ARE BEING TRADED AROUND 13K FOR SHORTER UPTO 1 YEAR PERIOD
Handy
The week started off with bank holidays in London and very little happening. This trend has continued and we believe it will continue into ...
Wednesday, 28 May 14
THE DRY BULK MARKET REMAINED UNDER PRESSURE - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market remained under pressure during this past week, with all indices pointing down compared to the previous Friday. Th ...
Tuesday, 27 May 14
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 19.13% LESS COAL THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: In the week ended 07:00 hours 26 May 2014, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland, ...
Monday, 26 May 14
SUB-BIT FOB INDO COAL SWAP Q1' 15 DELIVERIES CLOSED AT US$ 59.40 PER MT
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q3’ 2014 lost on day, week and on month according to AsiaClear OTC coal swap's reports re ...
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- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
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