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Tuesday, 08 July 14
ENERGY IN THE MIX - INTERMODAL SHIPBROKERS
 With the Tanker freight market having showed much promise this year compared to the performance that had been noted during the previous five, it is interesting to take on a review and outlook of the energy market as a whole. With the Developing nations having played a catch up gain during most of the 2000’s and having been found in a more advantageous position in terms of their continued economic development after the financial crisis of 2008, a considerable weight has been placed on these economies to drive demand forward for most of the energy commodities such as crude oil, coal and natural gas which play an integral part in shipping. Whilst most regions such as North America and Europe, which historically held the lions share for consumption of energy, have been holding steady in their requirements the Astronomical growth in demand from the Asia Pacific region has been the main source of demand growth for much more than a decade now.
China has been the main reason for those, with a key part having been played in the past by Japan and North Korea as well and India now quickly stepping up to take up it’s as a main contender. As these economies went through their stages of economic development, it was well known that an exponential increase in energy consumption would be one of the main byproducts of this. However, with time another pattern has slowly started to emerge.
Despite the rapid growth of energy consumption per capita, the growing worries regarding sources of energy and the sustainability and “cleanness” of our energy consumption has pushed for an ever more efficient and innovative mix of energy consumption, in turn driving for an ever slower growth of energy demand compared to the average GDP growth of the global economy. As pointed out earlier this year by the BP in its Energy outlook report, the amount of energy required per unit of GDP is expected to decline by 1.9% per year over the next 20 years while this figure is more than double the decline rate that was noted in the past decade. This means that we are slowly moving to a higher independence from energy, requiring less input to achieve an ever higher economic output. This could even prove to be an underestimate as typically energy plays a more primal role at the early stages of economic development and once both China and India (the current mammoths of global economic growth) get past this stage, they will likely shift their needs respectively causing a further slowdown in energy consumption per GDP.
A second point which will prove to be of more vital importance, though the trend seems to be moving at a slower pace, is how the world economy as a whole is slowly moving away from fossil fuels towards renewable sources of energy, with the latter expected to take a further 5% from the energy mix within the next 20 years. This has its significance on the shipping industry, as its fossil fuels that are transported by sea and they also take up a considerable portion of world seaborne trade.
Further to this we have seen a rapid shift amongst the preference of fossil fuels within the energy consumption mix. Oil has continued its rapid decline is close to losing its dominant position as the primary source of energy, while Coal has made considerable leaps over the past decade with natural gas following close behind. This has been evident within trade as well as the dry bulk market has significantly benefited from the growing importance of coal while the tanker market has been struggling to see an equal amount of growth in demand even before the crisis. This has followed through with an increasing amount of innovation in oil exploration such as that of tight oil and shale gas. This has been one of the important factors why we have seen a shift in trade with the U.S. decreasing its Crude oil imports last year by almost 40 million tonnes, while it was mainly thanks to China and India which in-creased theirs by 11 and 13 million tonnes respectively which helped cover much of this gap and provide the tanker market with some support.
Going forward, it is increasingly difficult to see any support from the market fundamentals that could provide a justification to a fast paced increase in tanker tonnage. Tonne miles are running shorter and shorter and although the demand for the commodity is there it seems that there isn’t much room for further growth in the fleet. The big promise that was West Africa in helping create further tonne-miles will likely be outshined by the slowly increasing production from East and Southern Africa. The Middle East still holds its top podium position with regards to trade exports and is situated fairly close to both China and India when compared to the distance VLs had to take to go around the Cape to get to the U.S. At the same time we expect more pipeline deals with the Far East to be struck by the other main exporter which is Russia.
In conclusion, there may well be an optimistic growth in demand for energy commodities such as crude oil, however it is looking increasingly difficult for this to translate over to increased seaborne trade and although Chinese and India Consumption will likely rise rapidly over the next couple of years , unless there is a rapid change in regional energy imbalances, the growth in shipping requirements is set to hold at a fairly slow pace.
- George Lazaridis - Research Analyst -
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 29 May 14
PEABODY ENERGY CHAIRMAN RECEIVES WCA AWARD
The World Coal Association has presented Gregory H. Boyce, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Peabody Energy (NYSE: BTU), with the 2014 Chairm ...
Thursday, 29 May 14
HANDY : THE SUPRAS ARE BEING TRADED AROUND 13K FOR SHORTER UPTO 1 YEAR PERIOD
Handy
The week started off with bank holidays in London and very little happening. This trend has continued and we believe it will continue into ...
Wednesday, 28 May 14
THE DRY BULK MARKET REMAINED UNDER PRESSURE - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market remained under pressure during this past week, with all indices pointing down compared to the previous Friday. Th ...
Tuesday, 27 May 14
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 19.13% LESS COAL THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: In the week ended 07:00 hours 26 May 2014, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland, ...
Monday, 26 May 14
SUB-BIT FOB INDO COAL SWAP Q1' 15 DELIVERIES CLOSED AT US$ 59.40 PER MT
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q3’ 2014 lost on day, week and on month according to AsiaClear OTC coal swap's reports re ...
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- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The University of Queensland
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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