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Tuesday, 08 July 14
ENERGY IN THE MIX - INTERMODAL SHIPBROKERS
 With the Tanker freight market having showed much promise this year compared to the performance that had been noted during the previous five, it is interesting to take on a review and outlook of the energy market as a whole. With the Developing nations having played a catch up gain during most of the 2000’s and having been found in a more advantageous position in terms of their continued economic development after the financial crisis of 2008, a considerable weight has been placed on these economies to drive demand forward for most of the energy commodities such as crude oil, coal and natural gas which play an integral part in shipping. Whilst most regions such as North America and Europe, which historically held the lions share for consumption of energy, have been holding steady in their requirements the Astronomical growth in demand from the Asia Pacific region has been the main source of demand growth for much more than a decade now.
China has been the main reason for those, with a key part having been played in the past by Japan and North Korea as well and India now quickly stepping up to take up it’s as a main contender. As these economies went through their stages of economic development, it was well known that an exponential increase in energy consumption would be one of the main byproducts of this. However, with time another pattern has slowly started to emerge.
Despite the rapid growth of energy consumption per capita, the growing worries regarding sources of energy and the sustainability and “cleanness” of our energy consumption has pushed for an ever more efficient and innovative mix of energy consumption, in turn driving for an ever slower growth of energy demand compared to the average GDP growth of the global economy. As pointed out earlier this year by the BP in its Energy outlook report, the amount of energy required per unit of GDP is expected to decline by 1.9% per year over the next 20 years while this figure is more than double the decline rate that was noted in the past decade. This means that we are slowly moving to a higher independence from energy, requiring less input to achieve an ever higher economic output. This could even prove to be an underestimate as typically energy plays a more primal role at the early stages of economic development and once both China and India (the current mammoths of global economic growth) get past this stage, they will likely shift their needs respectively causing a further slowdown in energy consumption per GDP.
A second point which will prove to be of more vital importance, though the trend seems to be moving at a slower pace, is how the world economy as a whole is slowly moving away from fossil fuels towards renewable sources of energy, with the latter expected to take a further 5% from the energy mix within the next 20 years. This has its significance on the shipping industry, as its fossil fuels that are transported by sea and they also take up a considerable portion of world seaborne trade.
Further to this we have seen a rapid shift amongst the preference of fossil fuels within the energy consumption mix. Oil has continued its rapid decline is close to losing its dominant position as the primary source of energy, while Coal has made considerable leaps over the past decade with natural gas following close behind. This has been evident within trade as well as the dry bulk market has significantly benefited from the growing importance of coal while the tanker market has been struggling to see an equal amount of growth in demand even before the crisis. This has followed through with an increasing amount of innovation in oil exploration such as that of tight oil and shale gas. This has been one of the important factors why we have seen a shift in trade with the U.S. decreasing its Crude oil imports last year by almost 40 million tonnes, while it was mainly thanks to China and India which in-creased theirs by 11 and 13 million tonnes respectively which helped cover much of this gap and provide the tanker market with some support.
Going forward, it is increasingly difficult to see any support from the market fundamentals that could provide a justification to a fast paced increase in tanker tonnage. Tonne miles are running shorter and shorter and although the demand for the commodity is there it seems that there isn’t much room for further growth in the fleet. The big promise that was West Africa in helping create further tonne-miles will likely be outshined by the slowly increasing production from East and Southern Africa. The Middle East still holds its top podium position with regards to trade exports and is situated fairly close to both China and India when compared to the distance VLs had to take to go around the Cape to get to the U.S. At the same time we expect more pipeline deals with the Far East to be struck by the other main exporter which is Russia.
In conclusion, there may well be an optimistic growth in demand for energy commodities such as crude oil, however it is looking increasingly difficult for this to translate over to increased seaborne trade and although Chinese and India Consumption will likely rise rapidly over the next couple of years , unless there is a rapid change in regional energy imbalances, the growth in shipping requirements is set to hold at a fairly slow pace.
- George Lazaridis - Research Analyst -
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 15 June 14
COAL FREIGHT RATES FALL FURTHER ON LACK OF DEMANDS - CAPT. REDDY
COALspot.com: The BDI softened this week as all segments fell this week. The Panamax sector being most affected. The Cape index was down 3.51 pct w ...
Friday, 13 June 14
US COAL PRODUCTION FELL 3% IN WEEK THAT ENDED JUNE 7, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 18.6 million short tons (mmst) of coal in a ...
Friday, 13 June 14
DRY BULK MARKET KEEPS ON FALLING, DESPITE RESPITE OF THE CAPESIZE SECTOR - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has kept on its lacklustre performance overall, with the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) still hovering below the 1,000 point mark. Yest ...
Thursday, 12 June 14
INDONESIA SETS HBA FOR MONTH OF JUNE AT US$ 73.64
COALspot.com - The Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources of Indonesia has revised up first time in last four months the coal bench mark price. ...
Thursday, 12 June 14
HANDY : TA MARKET IS CONTINUING SOUTH WITH A DECREASE OF 26% W-O-W
Handy
The week started off with holidays in most European countries and the TA market is continuing south with a decrease of 26% w-o-w. We do see ...
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- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The University of Queensland
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
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