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Tuesday, 08 July 14
ENERGY IN THE MIX - INTERMODAL SHIPBROKERS
 With the Tanker freight market having showed much promise this year compared to the performance that had been noted during the previous five, it is interesting to take on a review and outlook of the energy market as a whole. With the Developing nations having played a catch up gain during most of the 2000’s and having been found in a more advantageous position in terms of their continued economic development after the financial crisis of 2008, a considerable weight has been placed on these economies to drive demand forward for most of the energy commodities such as crude oil, coal and natural gas which play an integral part in shipping. Whilst most regions such as North America and Europe, which historically held the lions share for consumption of energy, have been holding steady in their requirements the Astronomical growth in demand from the Asia Pacific region has been the main source of demand growth for much more than a decade now.
China has been the main reason for those, with a key part having been played in the past by Japan and North Korea as well and India now quickly stepping up to take up it’s as a main contender. As these economies went through their stages of economic development, it was well known that an exponential increase in energy consumption would be one of the main byproducts of this. However, with time another pattern has slowly started to emerge.
Despite the rapid growth of energy consumption per capita, the growing worries regarding sources of energy and the sustainability and “cleanness” of our energy consumption has pushed for an ever more efficient and innovative mix of energy consumption, in turn driving for an ever slower growth of energy demand compared to the average GDP growth of the global economy. As pointed out earlier this year by the BP in its Energy outlook report, the amount of energy required per unit of GDP is expected to decline by 1.9% per year over the next 20 years while this figure is more than double the decline rate that was noted in the past decade. This means that we are slowly moving to a higher independence from energy, requiring less input to achieve an ever higher economic output. This could even prove to be an underestimate as typically energy plays a more primal role at the early stages of economic development and once both China and India (the current mammoths of global economic growth) get past this stage, they will likely shift their needs respectively causing a further slowdown in energy consumption per GDP.
A second point which will prove to be of more vital importance, though the trend seems to be moving at a slower pace, is how the world economy as a whole is slowly moving away from fossil fuels towards renewable sources of energy, with the latter expected to take a further 5% from the energy mix within the next 20 years. This has its significance on the shipping industry, as its fossil fuels that are transported by sea and they also take up a considerable portion of world seaborne trade.
Further to this we have seen a rapid shift amongst the preference of fossil fuels within the energy consumption mix. Oil has continued its rapid decline is close to losing its dominant position as the primary source of energy, while Coal has made considerable leaps over the past decade with natural gas following close behind. This has been evident within trade as well as the dry bulk market has significantly benefited from the growing importance of coal while the tanker market has been struggling to see an equal amount of growth in demand even before the crisis. This has followed through with an increasing amount of innovation in oil exploration such as that of tight oil and shale gas. This has been one of the important factors why we have seen a shift in trade with the U.S. decreasing its Crude oil imports last year by almost 40 million tonnes, while it was mainly thanks to China and India which in-creased theirs by 11 and 13 million tonnes respectively which helped cover much of this gap and provide the tanker market with some support.
Going forward, it is increasingly difficult to see any support from the market fundamentals that could provide a justification to a fast paced increase in tanker tonnage. Tonne miles are running shorter and shorter and although the demand for the commodity is there it seems that there isn’t much room for further growth in the fleet. The big promise that was West Africa in helping create further tonne-miles will likely be outshined by the slowly increasing production from East and Southern Africa. The Middle East still holds its top podium position with regards to trade exports and is situated fairly close to both China and India when compared to the distance VLs had to take to go around the Cape to get to the U.S. At the same time we expect more pipeline deals with the Far East to be struck by the other main exporter which is Russia.
In conclusion, there may well be an optimistic growth in demand for energy commodities such as crude oil, however it is looking increasingly difficult for this to translate over to increased seaborne trade and although Chinese and India Consumption will likely rise rapidly over the next couple of years , unless there is a rapid change in regional energy imbalances, the growth in shipping requirements is set to hold at a fairly slow pace.
- George Lazaridis - Research Analyst -
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 18 June 14
CHINESE STEEL PRODUCTION SETS RECORD DURING FIRST TEN DAYS OF JUNE - COMMODORE RESEARCH & CONSULTANCY
Recently released data shows that average daily crude steel production at China's key steel mills hit a record high of 1.833 million tons durin ...
Wednesday, 18 June 14
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
Back in January the expectations for Q3 and Q4 were more than great. Talks and claims for a rising BDI and a healthy market were coming from everyw ...
Tuesday, 17 June 14
DRY BULK FREIGHT RATES TO RISE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF 2014, AS CHINA IS EXPECTED TO START IMPORTING MORE IRON ORE FROM BRAZIL - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
In its latest analysis of the dry bulk market, BIMCO said that it doesn’t expect freight rates to react significantly to increased demand bef ...
Monday, 16 June 14
INDONESIAN COAL SWAPS FOR Q3 DELIVERY FALL 2.34 % MONTH ON MONTH
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q3’ 2014 lost on day, week and on month according to AsiaClear OTC coal swap's reports re ...
Monday, 16 June 14
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS FALL CONTINUES THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q3 14 deliveries lost 4.34 percent month on month and closed at US$ 71.05 per mt a ...
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Showing 3651 to 3655 news of total 6871 |
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- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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