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Tuesday, 08 July 14
ENERGY IN THE MIX - INTERMODAL SHIPBROKERS
 With the Tanker freight market having showed much promise this year compared to the performance that had been noted during the previous five, it is interesting to take on a review and outlook of the energy market as a whole. With the Developing nations having played a catch up gain during most of the 2000’s and having been found in a more advantageous position in terms of their continued economic development after the financial crisis of 2008, a considerable weight has been placed on these economies to drive demand forward for most of the energy commodities such as crude oil, coal and natural gas which play an integral part in shipping. Whilst most regions such as North America and Europe, which historically held the lions share for consumption of energy, have been holding steady in their requirements the Astronomical growth in demand from the Asia Pacific region has been the main source of demand growth for much more than a decade now.
China has been the main reason for those, with a key part having been played in the past by Japan and North Korea as well and India now quickly stepping up to take up it’s as a main contender. As these economies went through their stages of economic development, it was well known that an exponential increase in energy consumption would be one of the main byproducts of this. However, with time another pattern has slowly started to emerge.
Despite the rapid growth of energy consumption per capita, the growing worries regarding sources of energy and the sustainability and “cleanness” of our energy consumption has pushed for an ever more efficient and innovative mix of energy consumption, in turn driving for an ever slower growth of energy demand compared to the average GDP growth of the global economy. As pointed out earlier this year by the BP in its Energy outlook report, the amount of energy required per unit of GDP is expected to decline by 1.9% per year over the next 20 years while this figure is more than double the decline rate that was noted in the past decade. This means that we are slowly moving to a higher independence from energy, requiring less input to achieve an ever higher economic output. This could even prove to be an underestimate as typically energy plays a more primal role at the early stages of economic development and once both China and India (the current mammoths of global economic growth) get past this stage, they will likely shift their needs respectively causing a further slowdown in energy consumption per GDP.
A second point which will prove to be of more vital importance, though the trend seems to be moving at a slower pace, is how the world economy as a whole is slowly moving away from fossil fuels towards renewable sources of energy, with the latter expected to take a further 5% from the energy mix within the next 20 years. This has its significance on the shipping industry, as its fossil fuels that are transported by sea and they also take up a considerable portion of world seaborne trade.
Further to this we have seen a rapid shift amongst the preference of fossil fuels within the energy consumption mix. Oil has continued its rapid decline is close to losing its dominant position as the primary source of energy, while Coal has made considerable leaps over the past decade with natural gas following close behind. This has been evident within trade as well as the dry bulk market has significantly benefited from the growing importance of coal while the tanker market has been struggling to see an equal amount of growth in demand even before the crisis. This has followed through with an increasing amount of innovation in oil exploration such as that of tight oil and shale gas. This has been one of the important factors why we have seen a shift in trade with the U.S. decreasing its Crude oil imports last year by almost 40 million tonnes, while it was mainly thanks to China and India which in-creased theirs by 11 and 13 million tonnes respectively which helped cover much of this gap and provide the tanker market with some support.
Going forward, it is increasingly difficult to see any support from the market fundamentals that could provide a justification to a fast paced increase in tanker tonnage. Tonne miles are running shorter and shorter and although the demand for the commodity is there it seems that there isn’t much room for further growth in the fleet. The big promise that was West Africa in helping create further tonne-miles will likely be outshined by the slowly increasing production from East and Southern Africa. The Middle East still holds its top podium position with regards to trade exports and is situated fairly close to both China and India when compared to the distance VLs had to take to go around the Cape to get to the U.S. At the same time we expect more pipeline deals with the Far East to be struck by the other main exporter which is Russia.
In conclusion, there may well be an optimistic growth in demand for energy commodities such as crude oil, however it is looking increasingly difficult for this to translate over to increased seaborne trade and although Chinese and India Consumption will likely rise rapidly over the next couple of years , unless there is a rapid change in regional energy imbalances, the growth in shipping requirements is set to hold at a fairly slow pace.
- George Lazaridis - Research Analyst -
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 18 June 14
CHINESE STEEL PRODUCTION SETS RECORD DURING FIRST TEN DAYS OF JUNE - COMMODORE RESEARCH & CONSULTANCY
Recently released data shows that average daily crude steel production at China's key steel mills hit a record high of 1.833 million tons durin ...
Wednesday, 18 June 14
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
Back in January the expectations for Q3 and Q4 were more than great. Talks and claims for a rising BDI and a healthy market were coming from everyw ...
Tuesday, 17 June 14
DRY BULK FREIGHT RATES TO RISE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF 2014, AS CHINA IS EXPECTED TO START IMPORTING MORE IRON ORE FROM BRAZIL - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
In its latest analysis of the dry bulk market, BIMCO said that it doesn’t expect freight rates to react significantly to increased demand bef ...
Monday, 16 June 14
INDONESIAN COAL SWAPS FOR Q3 DELIVERY FALL 2.34 % MONTH ON MONTH
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q3’ 2014 lost on day, week and on month according to AsiaClear OTC coal swap's reports re ...
Monday, 16 June 14
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS FALL CONTINUES THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q3 14 deliveries lost 4.34 percent month on month and closed at US$ 71.05 per mt a ...
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Showing 3651 to 3655 news of total 6871 |
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- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The University of Queensland
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Australian Coal Association
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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