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Tuesday, 08 July 14
ENERGY IN THE MIX - INTERMODAL SHIPBROKERS
 With the Tanker freight market having showed much promise this year compared to the performance that had been noted during the previous five, it is interesting to take on a review and outlook of the energy market as a whole. With the Developing nations having played a catch up gain during most of the 2000’s and having been found in a more advantageous position in terms of their continued economic development after the financial crisis of 2008, a considerable weight has been placed on these economies to drive demand forward for most of the energy commodities such as crude oil, coal and natural gas which play an integral part in shipping. Whilst most regions such as North America and Europe, which historically held the lions share for consumption of energy, have been holding steady in their requirements the Astronomical growth in demand from the Asia Pacific region has been the main source of demand growth for much more than a decade now.
China has been the main reason for those, with a key part having been played in the past by Japan and North Korea as well and India now quickly stepping up to take up it’s as a main contender. As these economies went through their stages of economic development, it was well known that an exponential increase in energy consumption would be one of the main byproducts of this. However, with time another pattern has slowly started to emerge.
Despite the rapid growth of energy consumption per capita, the growing worries regarding sources of energy and the sustainability and “cleanness” of our energy consumption has pushed for an ever more efficient and innovative mix of energy consumption, in turn driving for an ever slower growth of energy demand compared to the average GDP growth of the global economy. As pointed out earlier this year by the BP in its Energy outlook report, the amount of energy required per unit of GDP is expected to decline by 1.9% per year over the next 20 years while this figure is more than double the decline rate that was noted in the past decade. This means that we are slowly moving to a higher independence from energy, requiring less input to achieve an ever higher economic output. This could even prove to be an underestimate as typically energy plays a more primal role at the early stages of economic development and once both China and India (the current mammoths of global economic growth) get past this stage, they will likely shift their needs respectively causing a further slowdown in energy consumption per GDP.
A second point which will prove to be of more vital importance, though the trend seems to be moving at a slower pace, is how the world economy as a whole is slowly moving away from fossil fuels towards renewable sources of energy, with the latter expected to take a further 5% from the energy mix within the next 20 years. This has its significance on the shipping industry, as its fossil fuels that are transported by sea and they also take up a considerable portion of world seaborne trade.
Further to this we have seen a rapid shift amongst the preference of fossil fuels within the energy consumption mix. Oil has continued its rapid decline is close to losing its dominant position as the primary source of energy, while Coal has made considerable leaps over the past decade with natural gas following close behind. This has been evident within trade as well as the dry bulk market has significantly benefited from the growing importance of coal while the tanker market has been struggling to see an equal amount of growth in demand even before the crisis. This has followed through with an increasing amount of innovation in oil exploration such as that of tight oil and shale gas. This has been one of the important factors why we have seen a shift in trade with the U.S. decreasing its Crude oil imports last year by almost 40 million tonnes, while it was mainly thanks to China and India which in-creased theirs by 11 and 13 million tonnes respectively which helped cover much of this gap and provide the tanker market with some support.
Going forward, it is increasingly difficult to see any support from the market fundamentals that could provide a justification to a fast paced increase in tanker tonnage. Tonne miles are running shorter and shorter and although the demand for the commodity is there it seems that there isn’t much room for further growth in the fleet. The big promise that was West Africa in helping create further tonne-miles will likely be outshined by the slowly increasing production from East and Southern Africa. The Middle East still holds its top podium position with regards to trade exports and is situated fairly close to both China and India when compared to the distance VLs had to take to go around the Cape to get to the U.S. At the same time we expect more pipeline deals with the Far East to be struck by the other main exporter which is Russia.
In conclusion, there may well be an optimistic growth in demand for energy commodities such as crude oil, however it is looking increasingly difficult for this to translate over to increased seaborne trade and although Chinese and India Consumption will likely rise rapidly over the next couple of years , unless there is a rapid change in regional energy imbalances, the growth in shipping requirements is set to hold at a fairly slow pace.
- George Lazaridis - Research Analyst -
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 23 June 14
COAL SWAPS DROPS FURTHER MONTH ON MONTH ON WEAK DEMAND
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q3 14 deliveries lost 6.91 percent month on month and closed at US$ 69.00 per mt a ...
Sunday, 22 June 14
THE PANAMAX COAL FREIGHT FROM INDONESIA TO INDIA SLIPPED THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange's main sea freight index, which tracks rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities, fell slightly on Friday ...
Friday, 20 June 14
DRY BULK MARKET LOOKING FOR UPSIDE ON ROBUST SEABORNE IRON ORE TRADE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market hasn’t been able to justify the heightened expectations this year. Yesterday, the Baltic Dry Index managed to inch forwar ...
Friday, 20 June 14
US WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION DROPS 1.8% WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 18.3 million short tons (mmst) of coal in a ...
Thursday, 19 June 14
PANAMAX: VERY CLOSE TO BREAKING THE ALL TIME LOW RECORD - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
The Supra-Handy market is experiencing the same market slow down as its bigger sister markets however not to the same extent. We see TA rat ...
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- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Australian Coal Association
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Planning Commission, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
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