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Tuesday, 08 July 14
ENERGY IN THE MIX - INTERMODAL SHIPBROKERS
 With the Tanker freight market having showed much promise this year compared to the performance that had been noted during the previous five, it is interesting to take on a review and outlook of the energy market as a whole. With the Developing nations having played a catch up gain during most of the 2000’s and having been found in a more advantageous position in terms of their continued economic development after the financial crisis of 2008, a considerable weight has been placed on these economies to drive demand forward for most of the energy commodities such as crude oil, coal and natural gas which play an integral part in shipping. Whilst most regions such as North America and Europe, which historically held the lions share for consumption of energy, have been holding steady in their requirements the Astronomical growth in demand from the Asia Pacific region has been the main source of demand growth for much more than a decade now.
China has been the main reason for those, with a key part having been played in the past by Japan and North Korea as well and India now quickly stepping up to take up it’s as a main contender. As these economies went through their stages of economic development, it was well known that an exponential increase in energy consumption would be one of the main byproducts of this. However, with time another pattern has slowly started to emerge.
Despite the rapid growth of energy consumption per capita, the growing worries regarding sources of energy and the sustainability and “cleanness” of our energy consumption has pushed for an ever more efficient and innovative mix of energy consumption, in turn driving for an ever slower growth of energy demand compared to the average GDP growth of the global economy. As pointed out earlier this year by the BP in its Energy outlook report, the amount of energy required per unit of GDP is expected to decline by 1.9% per year over the next 20 years while this figure is more than double the decline rate that was noted in the past decade. This means that we are slowly moving to a higher independence from energy, requiring less input to achieve an ever higher economic output. This could even prove to be an underestimate as typically energy plays a more primal role at the early stages of economic development and once both China and India (the current mammoths of global economic growth) get past this stage, they will likely shift their needs respectively causing a further slowdown in energy consumption per GDP.
A second point which will prove to be of more vital importance, though the trend seems to be moving at a slower pace, is how the world economy as a whole is slowly moving away from fossil fuels towards renewable sources of energy, with the latter expected to take a further 5% from the energy mix within the next 20 years. This has its significance on the shipping industry, as its fossil fuels that are transported by sea and they also take up a considerable portion of world seaborne trade.
Further to this we have seen a rapid shift amongst the preference of fossil fuels within the energy consumption mix. Oil has continued its rapid decline is close to losing its dominant position as the primary source of energy, while Coal has made considerable leaps over the past decade with natural gas following close behind. This has been evident within trade as well as the dry bulk market has significantly benefited from the growing importance of coal while the tanker market has been struggling to see an equal amount of growth in demand even before the crisis. This has followed through with an increasing amount of innovation in oil exploration such as that of tight oil and shale gas. This has been one of the important factors why we have seen a shift in trade with the U.S. decreasing its Crude oil imports last year by almost 40 million tonnes, while it was mainly thanks to China and India which in-creased theirs by 11 and 13 million tonnes respectively which helped cover much of this gap and provide the tanker market with some support.
Going forward, it is increasingly difficult to see any support from the market fundamentals that could provide a justification to a fast paced increase in tanker tonnage. Tonne miles are running shorter and shorter and although the demand for the commodity is there it seems that there isn’t much room for further growth in the fleet. The big promise that was West Africa in helping create further tonne-miles will likely be outshined by the slowly increasing production from East and Southern Africa. The Middle East still holds its top podium position with regards to trade exports and is situated fairly close to both China and India when compared to the distance VLs had to take to go around the Cape to get to the U.S. At the same time we expect more pipeline deals with the Far East to be struck by the other main exporter which is Russia.
In conclusion, there may well be an optimistic growth in demand for energy commodities such as crude oil, however it is looking increasingly difficult for this to translate over to increased seaborne trade and although Chinese and India Consumption will likely rise rapidly over the next couple of years , unless there is a rapid change in regional energy imbalances, the growth in shipping requirements is set to hold at a fairly slow pace.
- George Lazaridis - Research Analyst -
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 25 June 14
INDONESIAN COAL EXPORTS ON RISE; EARNINGS FALL ON LOWER SELLING PRICES
COALspot.com: Indonesia, one of the world's largest coal producer and the global largest multi grade coal exporter shipped around $1.84* ...
Wednesday, 25 June 14
THE PANAMAX MARKET REACHED FRESH LOWS FOR THE YEAR, SAYS INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market closed off the week noting a slight decrease, but this image of stability is merely representative of freight rat ...
Wednesday, 25 June 14
SHIPPING: MARKET INSIGHT - YANNIS OLZIERSKY
During his recent visit in London, China's Premier, Li Keqiang, announced that China's economy, the world's second largest after the US ...
Tuesday, 24 June 14
INDONESIAN COAL MINER TARGETS RP 313 BILLION IPO
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal miner PT Mitrabara Adiperdana is aiming to raise up to Rp 313 billion to Rp 368 billion (approximately $26.133 millio ...
Monday, 23 June 14
INDONESIAN COAL SWAP FOR Q3 DELIVERY LOST 8.60% Y-O-Y;4.80% M-O-M
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q3’ 2014 lost on day, week and on month according to AsiaClear OTC coal swap's reports re ...
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- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Planning Commission, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
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