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Tuesday, 08 July 14
ENERGY IN THE MIX - INTERMODAL SHIPBROKERS
 With the Tanker freight market having showed much promise this year compared to the performance that had been noted during the previous five, it is interesting to take on a review and outlook of the energy market as a whole. With the Developing nations having played a catch up gain during most of the 2000’s and having been found in a more advantageous position in terms of their continued economic development after the financial crisis of 2008, a considerable weight has been placed on these economies to drive demand forward for most of the energy commodities such as crude oil, coal and natural gas which play an integral part in shipping. Whilst most regions such as North America and Europe, which historically held the lions share for consumption of energy, have been holding steady in their requirements the Astronomical growth in demand from the Asia Pacific region has been the main source of demand growth for much more than a decade now.
China has been the main reason for those, with a key part having been played in the past by Japan and North Korea as well and India now quickly stepping up to take up it’s as a main contender. As these economies went through their stages of economic development, it was well known that an exponential increase in energy consumption would be one of the main byproducts of this. However, with time another pattern has slowly started to emerge.
Despite the rapid growth of energy consumption per capita, the growing worries regarding sources of energy and the sustainability and “cleanness” of our energy consumption has pushed for an ever more efficient and innovative mix of energy consumption, in turn driving for an ever slower growth of energy demand compared to the average GDP growth of the global economy. As pointed out earlier this year by the BP in its Energy outlook report, the amount of energy required per unit of GDP is expected to decline by 1.9% per year over the next 20 years while this figure is more than double the decline rate that was noted in the past decade. This means that we are slowly moving to a higher independence from energy, requiring less input to achieve an ever higher economic output. This could even prove to be an underestimate as typically energy plays a more primal role at the early stages of economic development and once both China and India (the current mammoths of global economic growth) get past this stage, they will likely shift their needs respectively causing a further slowdown in energy consumption per GDP.
A second point which will prove to be of more vital importance, though the trend seems to be moving at a slower pace, is how the world economy as a whole is slowly moving away from fossil fuels towards renewable sources of energy, with the latter expected to take a further 5% from the energy mix within the next 20 years. This has its significance on the shipping industry, as its fossil fuels that are transported by sea and they also take up a considerable portion of world seaborne trade.
Further to this we have seen a rapid shift amongst the preference of fossil fuels within the energy consumption mix. Oil has continued its rapid decline is close to losing its dominant position as the primary source of energy, while Coal has made considerable leaps over the past decade with natural gas following close behind. This has been evident within trade as well as the dry bulk market has significantly benefited from the growing importance of coal while the tanker market has been struggling to see an equal amount of growth in demand even before the crisis. This has followed through with an increasing amount of innovation in oil exploration such as that of tight oil and shale gas. This has been one of the important factors why we have seen a shift in trade with the U.S. decreasing its Crude oil imports last year by almost 40 million tonnes, while it was mainly thanks to China and India which in-creased theirs by 11 and 13 million tonnes respectively which helped cover much of this gap and provide the tanker market with some support.
Going forward, it is increasingly difficult to see any support from the market fundamentals that could provide a justification to a fast paced increase in tanker tonnage. Tonne miles are running shorter and shorter and although the demand for the commodity is there it seems that there isn’t much room for further growth in the fleet. The big promise that was West Africa in helping create further tonne-miles will likely be outshined by the slowly increasing production from East and Southern Africa. The Middle East still holds its top podium position with regards to trade exports and is situated fairly close to both China and India when compared to the distance VLs had to take to go around the Cape to get to the U.S. At the same time we expect more pipeline deals with the Far East to be struck by the other main exporter which is Russia.
In conclusion, there may well be an optimistic growth in demand for energy commodities such as crude oil, however it is looking increasingly difficult for this to translate over to increased seaborne trade and although Chinese and India Consumption will likely rise rapidly over the next couple of years , unless there is a rapid change in regional energy imbalances, the growth in shipping requirements is set to hold at a fairly slow pace.
- George Lazaridis - Research Analyst -
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 30 June 14
INDO - INDIA FREIGHT RATES CONTINUE TO WEAK
COALspot.com: The latest dry Index shows that average all-in spot freight declined, the Panamax and Supramax slipping by 9.11 percent and 4% respec ...
Friday, 27 June 14
DRY BULK MARKET STILL LOOKING FOR UPSIDE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has kept up its lacklustre performance during the past week, as evidenced by the course of the Baltic Dry Index (BDI). The BDI ...
Thursday, 26 June 14
PANAMAX : A PACIFIC ROUND PAYS AROUND US$ 3K DAILY - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
In the Atlantic there has been little activity which again has caused rates to slip across all trades. TA´s are now down to US$ 5,500 ...
Thursday, 26 June 14
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR TOTAL 750K MT OF BITUMINOUS COAL FOR 3CY
COALspot.com: South Korean state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) has issued a new tender for supply of total 250,000 MT of bituminous co ...
Thursday, 26 June 14
COAL DIVESTMENT CAMPAIGNS COME WITH RISKY UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES - WCA
Last week I presented to the Expert Group on investments in coal and petroleum companies, the body set up to advise the Norwegian Government on whe ...
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- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
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