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Tuesday, 08 July 14
ENERGY IN THE MIX - INTERMODAL SHIPBROKERS
 With the Tanker freight market having showed much promise this year compared to the performance that had been noted during the previous five, it is interesting to take on a review and outlook of the energy market as a whole. With the Developing nations having played a catch up gain during most of the 2000’s and having been found in a more advantageous position in terms of their continued economic development after the financial crisis of 2008, a considerable weight has been placed on these economies to drive demand forward for most of the energy commodities such as crude oil, coal and natural gas which play an integral part in shipping. Whilst most regions such as North America and Europe, which historically held the lions share for consumption of energy, have been holding steady in their requirements the Astronomical growth in demand from the Asia Pacific region has been the main source of demand growth for much more than a decade now.
China has been the main reason for those, with a key part having been played in the past by Japan and North Korea as well and India now quickly stepping up to take up it’s as a main contender. As these economies went through their stages of economic development, it was well known that an exponential increase in energy consumption would be one of the main byproducts of this. However, with time another pattern has slowly started to emerge.
Despite the rapid growth of energy consumption per capita, the growing worries regarding sources of energy and the sustainability and “cleanness” of our energy consumption has pushed for an ever more efficient and innovative mix of energy consumption, in turn driving for an ever slower growth of energy demand compared to the average GDP growth of the global economy. As pointed out earlier this year by the BP in its Energy outlook report, the amount of energy required per unit of GDP is expected to decline by 1.9% per year over the next 20 years while this figure is more than double the decline rate that was noted in the past decade. This means that we are slowly moving to a higher independence from energy, requiring less input to achieve an ever higher economic output. This could even prove to be an underestimate as typically energy plays a more primal role at the early stages of economic development and once both China and India (the current mammoths of global economic growth) get past this stage, they will likely shift their needs respectively causing a further slowdown in energy consumption per GDP.
A second point which will prove to be of more vital importance, though the trend seems to be moving at a slower pace, is how the world economy as a whole is slowly moving away from fossil fuels towards renewable sources of energy, with the latter expected to take a further 5% from the energy mix within the next 20 years. This has its significance on the shipping industry, as its fossil fuels that are transported by sea and they also take up a considerable portion of world seaborne trade.
Further to this we have seen a rapid shift amongst the preference of fossil fuels within the energy consumption mix. Oil has continued its rapid decline is close to losing its dominant position as the primary source of energy, while Coal has made considerable leaps over the past decade with natural gas following close behind. This has been evident within trade as well as the dry bulk market has significantly benefited from the growing importance of coal while the tanker market has been struggling to see an equal amount of growth in demand even before the crisis. This has followed through with an increasing amount of innovation in oil exploration such as that of tight oil and shale gas. This has been one of the important factors why we have seen a shift in trade with the U.S. decreasing its Crude oil imports last year by almost 40 million tonnes, while it was mainly thanks to China and India which in-creased theirs by 11 and 13 million tonnes respectively which helped cover much of this gap and provide the tanker market with some support.
Going forward, it is increasingly difficult to see any support from the market fundamentals that could provide a justification to a fast paced increase in tanker tonnage. Tonne miles are running shorter and shorter and although the demand for the commodity is there it seems that there isn’t much room for further growth in the fleet. The big promise that was West Africa in helping create further tonne-miles will likely be outshined by the slowly increasing production from East and Southern Africa. The Middle East still holds its top podium position with regards to trade exports and is situated fairly close to both China and India when compared to the distance VLs had to take to go around the Cape to get to the U.S. At the same time we expect more pipeline deals with the Far East to be struck by the other main exporter which is Russia.
In conclusion, there may well be an optimistic growth in demand for energy commodities such as crude oil, however it is looking increasingly difficult for this to translate over to increased seaborne trade and although Chinese and India Consumption will likely rise rapidly over the next couple of years , unless there is a rapid change in regional energy imbalances, the growth in shipping requirements is set to hold at a fairly slow pace.
- George Lazaridis - Research Analyst -
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 02 July 14
HANDY BULKERS PROVE TO BE THE MOST SOUGHT AFTER VESSELS OVER THE PAST WEEK - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The Handy dry bulker proved to be the most sought after ship by ship owners active in the second hand market, which saw a slight decline in terms o ...
Wednesday, 02 July 14
SHIPPING: MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE DERMATIS
After 6 months, 57 ministerial meetings and 67 political agreements, the journey of the Greek Presidency in the EU reached its end yesterday; only ...
Tuesday, 01 July 14
INDIAN POWER PLANT COAL STOCKPILES VERY LOW
COALspot.com: According to today's Weekly Dry Bulk Report published by Commodore Research, Indian power plant coal stockpiles have now fallen t ...
Monday, 30 June 14
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL PRICES ARE STILL STRUGGLING TO RECOVER
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q3’ 2014 lost on week and on month according to AsiaClear OTC coal swap's reports release ...
Monday, 30 June 14
WEEKLY CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS DECLINE CONTINUES; Q1'15 LOST US$ 4.55 PMT IN A WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for delivery in Q3 fell US$ 5.25 month on month on Friday, dipping under $69 a tone. The CFR South Ch ...
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- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Planning Commission, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
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