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Tuesday, 08 July 14
ENERGY IN THE MIX - INTERMODAL SHIPBROKERS
 With the Tanker freight market having showed much promise this year compared to the performance that had been noted during the previous five, it is interesting to take on a review and outlook of the energy market as a whole. With the Developing nations having played a catch up gain during most of the 2000’s and having been found in a more advantageous position in terms of their continued economic development after the financial crisis of 2008, a considerable weight has been placed on these economies to drive demand forward for most of the energy commodities such as crude oil, coal and natural gas which play an integral part in shipping. Whilst most regions such as North America and Europe, which historically held the lions share for consumption of energy, have been holding steady in their requirements the Astronomical growth in demand from the Asia Pacific region has been the main source of demand growth for much more than a decade now.
China has been the main reason for those, with a key part having been played in the past by Japan and North Korea as well and India now quickly stepping up to take up it’s as a main contender. As these economies went through their stages of economic development, it was well known that an exponential increase in energy consumption would be one of the main byproducts of this. However, with time another pattern has slowly started to emerge.
Despite the rapid growth of energy consumption per capita, the growing worries regarding sources of energy and the sustainability and “cleanness” of our energy consumption has pushed for an ever more efficient and innovative mix of energy consumption, in turn driving for an ever slower growth of energy demand compared to the average GDP growth of the global economy. As pointed out earlier this year by the BP in its Energy outlook report, the amount of energy required per unit of GDP is expected to decline by 1.9% per year over the next 20 years while this figure is more than double the decline rate that was noted in the past decade. This means that we are slowly moving to a higher independence from energy, requiring less input to achieve an ever higher economic output. This could even prove to be an underestimate as typically energy plays a more primal role at the early stages of economic development and once both China and India (the current mammoths of global economic growth) get past this stage, they will likely shift their needs respectively causing a further slowdown in energy consumption per GDP.
A second point which will prove to be of more vital importance, though the trend seems to be moving at a slower pace, is how the world economy as a whole is slowly moving away from fossil fuels towards renewable sources of energy, with the latter expected to take a further 5% from the energy mix within the next 20 years. This has its significance on the shipping industry, as its fossil fuels that are transported by sea and they also take up a considerable portion of world seaborne trade.
Further to this we have seen a rapid shift amongst the preference of fossil fuels within the energy consumption mix. Oil has continued its rapid decline is close to losing its dominant position as the primary source of energy, while Coal has made considerable leaps over the past decade with natural gas following close behind. This has been evident within trade as well as the dry bulk market has significantly benefited from the growing importance of coal while the tanker market has been struggling to see an equal amount of growth in demand even before the crisis. This has followed through with an increasing amount of innovation in oil exploration such as that of tight oil and shale gas. This has been one of the important factors why we have seen a shift in trade with the U.S. decreasing its Crude oil imports last year by almost 40 million tonnes, while it was mainly thanks to China and India which in-creased theirs by 11 and 13 million tonnes respectively which helped cover much of this gap and provide the tanker market with some support.
Going forward, it is increasingly difficult to see any support from the market fundamentals that could provide a justification to a fast paced increase in tanker tonnage. Tonne miles are running shorter and shorter and although the demand for the commodity is there it seems that there isn’t much room for further growth in the fleet. The big promise that was West Africa in helping create further tonne-miles will likely be outshined by the slowly increasing production from East and Southern Africa. The Middle East still holds its top podium position with regards to trade exports and is situated fairly close to both China and India when compared to the distance VLs had to take to go around the Cape to get to the U.S. At the same time we expect more pipeline deals with the Far East to be struck by the other main exporter which is Russia.
In conclusion, there may well be an optimistic growth in demand for energy commodities such as crude oil, however it is looking increasingly difficult for this to translate over to increased seaborne trade and although Chinese and India Consumption will likely rise rapidly over the next couple of years , unless there is a rapid change in regional energy imbalances, the growth in shipping requirements is set to hold at a fairly slow pace.
- George Lazaridis - Research Analyst -
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 11 July 14
UNITED STATE'S MONTHLY COAL OUTPUT FALLS 5.53% IN JUNE
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 18.1 million short tons (mmst) of coal in a ...
Thursday, 10 July 14
SGX EXPANDS ACROSS THE BULKS WITH NEW COAL PRODUCTS
COALspot.com: Singapore Exchange (SGX) is expanding its bulk commodity derivatives offering by launching new coking and thermal coal products on 4 ...
Thursday, 10 July 14
HANDY: SMALL INCREASE; PANAMAX: POSITIVE TONE; CAPESIZE: PAPER VALUES REMAIN WEEK
Handy
It is a general increase in activity in both hemispheres whereas rates have just experienced a small increase. In the Feast we see stable a ...
Wednesday, 09 July 14
SHIP INVESTMENTS ARE TRENDING LOWER
Most ship owners are deeming current ship prices on the high side, refraining from making serious commitments in new acquisitions or newbuilding or ...
Wednesday, 09 July 14
INDIAN GOVERNMENT ADVISED POWER UTILITIES TO INCREASE COAL IMPORTS
COALspot.com: The government of India has advised power utilities to increase coal imports to meet fuel shortages and those that have fuel supply p ...
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- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The University of Queensland
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- White Energy Company Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
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