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Tuesday, 08 July 14
ENERGY IN THE MIX - INTERMODAL SHIPBROKERS
 With the Tanker freight market having showed much promise this year compared to the performance that had been noted during the previous five, it is interesting to take on a review and outlook of the energy market as a whole. With the Developing nations having played a catch up gain during most of the 2000’s and having been found in a more advantageous position in terms of their continued economic development after the financial crisis of 2008, a considerable weight has been placed on these economies to drive demand forward for most of the energy commodities such as crude oil, coal and natural gas which play an integral part in shipping. Whilst most regions such as North America and Europe, which historically held the lions share for consumption of energy, have been holding steady in their requirements the Astronomical growth in demand from the Asia Pacific region has been the main source of demand growth for much more than a decade now.
China has been the main reason for those, with a key part having been played in the past by Japan and North Korea as well and India now quickly stepping up to take up it’s as a main contender. As these economies went through their stages of economic development, it was well known that an exponential increase in energy consumption would be one of the main byproducts of this. However, with time another pattern has slowly started to emerge.
Despite the rapid growth of energy consumption per capita, the growing worries regarding sources of energy and the sustainability and “cleanness” of our energy consumption has pushed for an ever more efficient and innovative mix of energy consumption, in turn driving for an ever slower growth of energy demand compared to the average GDP growth of the global economy. As pointed out earlier this year by the BP in its Energy outlook report, the amount of energy required per unit of GDP is expected to decline by 1.9% per year over the next 20 years while this figure is more than double the decline rate that was noted in the past decade. This means that we are slowly moving to a higher independence from energy, requiring less input to achieve an ever higher economic output. This could even prove to be an underestimate as typically energy plays a more primal role at the early stages of economic development and once both China and India (the current mammoths of global economic growth) get past this stage, they will likely shift their needs respectively causing a further slowdown in energy consumption per GDP.
A second point which will prove to be of more vital importance, though the trend seems to be moving at a slower pace, is how the world economy as a whole is slowly moving away from fossil fuels towards renewable sources of energy, with the latter expected to take a further 5% from the energy mix within the next 20 years. This has its significance on the shipping industry, as its fossil fuels that are transported by sea and they also take up a considerable portion of world seaborne trade.
Further to this we have seen a rapid shift amongst the preference of fossil fuels within the energy consumption mix. Oil has continued its rapid decline is close to losing its dominant position as the primary source of energy, while Coal has made considerable leaps over the past decade with natural gas following close behind. This has been evident within trade as well as the dry bulk market has significantly benefited from the growing importance of coal while the tanker market has been struggling to see an equal amount of growth in demand even before the crisis. This has followed through with an increasing amount of innovation in oil exploration such as that of tight oil and shale gas. This has been one of the important factors why we have seen a shift in trade with the U.S. decreasing its Crude oil imports last year by almost 40 million tonnes, while it was mainly thanks to China and India which in-creased theirs by 11 and 13 million tonnes respectively which helped cover much of this gap and provide the tanker market with some support.
Going forward, it is increasingly difficult to see any support from the market fundamentals that could provide a justification to a fast paced increase in tanker tonnage. Tonne miles are running shorter and shorter and although the demand for the commodity is there it seems that there isn’t much room for further growth in the fleet. The big promise that was West Africa in helping create further tonne-miles will likely be outshined by the slowly increasing production from East and Southern Africa. The Middle East still holds its top podium position with regards to trade exports and is situated fairly close to both China and India when compared to the distance VLs had to take to go around the Cape to get to the U.S. At the same time we expect more pipeline deals with the Far East to be struck by the other main exporter which is Russia.
In conclusion, there may well be an optimistic growth in demand for energy commodities such as crude oil, however it is looking increasingly difficult for this to translate over to increased seaborne trade and although Chinese and India Consumption will likely rise rapidly over the next couple of years , unless there is a rapid change in regional energy imbalances, the growth in shipping requirements is set to hold at a fairly slow pace.
- George Lazaridis - Research Analyst -
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 16 July 14
INDIA BUDGET HAS LIMITED SHORT TERM IMPACT ON POWER SECTOR - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings says that the measures announced relating to India's electricity sector in the budget for FY2015 are directionally correct but in ...
Wednesday, 16 July 14
WEEKLY SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Wake me up when September ends - Theodore Ntalakos
Since last September most thought that the worst was behind us. It looks like the market de ...
Tuesday, 15 July 14
INDONESIA'S TOTAL COAL PRODUCTION REACHED ANOTHER HIGH DURING THE FIRST SIX MONTHS; GOVERNMENT EXPECTED TO RAISE ROYALTIES
COALspot.com: Indonesia's total coal production reached 213 million tons during January through June, up by 7.6 percent y-o-y. Coal output in I ...
Monday, 14 July 14
THE END OF THE ERA OF HEAVY FUEL OIL IN MARITIME SHIPPING - ICCT
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Since the 1960s, heavy fuel oil (HFO) has been the king of marine fuels. Viscous, dirty, yet inexpensive and widely avail ...
Monday, 14 July 14
SGX SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP FOR Q4' 14 DELIVERY CLOSED AT $ 54.80
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q3’ 2014 lost on day, week and on month according to AsiaClear OTC coal swap's reports re ...
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- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
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