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Tuesday, 08 July 14
ENERGY IN THE MIX - INTERMODAL SHIPBROKERS
 With the Tanker freight market having showed much promise this year compared to the performance that had been noted during the previous five, it is interesting to take on a review and outlook of the energy market as a whole. With the Developing nations having played a catch up gain during most of the 2000’s and having been found in a more advantageous position in terms of their continued economic development after the financial crisis of 2008, a considerable weight has been placed on these economies to drive demand forward for most of the energy commodities such as crude oil, coal and natural gas which play an integral part in shipping. Whilst most regions such as North America and Europe, which historically held the lions share for consumption of energy, have been holding steady in their requirements the Astronomical growth in demand from the Asia Pacific region has been the main source of demand growth for much more than a decade now.
China has been the main reason for those, with a key part having been played in the past by Japan and North Korea as well and India now quickly stepping up to take up it’s as a main contender. As these economies went through their stages of economic development, it was well known that an exponential increase in energy consumption would be one of the main byproducts of this. However, with time another pattern has slowly started to emerge.
Despite the rapid growth of energy consumption per capita, the growing worries regarding sources of energy and the sustainability and “cleanness” of our energy consumption has pushed for an ever more efficient and innovative mix of energy consumption, in turn driving for an ever slower growth of energy demand compared to the average GDP growth of the global economy. As pointed out earlier this year by the BP in its Energy outlook report, the amount of energy required per unit of GDP is expected to decline by 1.9% per year over the next 20 years while this figure is more than double the decline rate that was noted in the past decade. This means that we are slowly moving to a higher independence from energy, requiring less input to achieve an ever higher economic output. This could even prove to be an underestimate as typically energy plays a more primal role at the early stages of economic development and once both China and India (the current mammoths of global economic growth) get past this stage, they will likely shift their needs respectively causing a further slowdown in energy consumption per GDP.
A second point which will prove to be of more vital importance, though the trend seems to be moving at a slower pace, is how the world economy as a whole is slowly moving away from fossil fuels towards renewable sources of energy, with the latter expected to take a further 5% from the energy mix within the next 20 years. This has its significance on the shipping industry, as its fossil fuels that are transported by sea and they also take up a considerable portion of world seaborne trade.
Further to this we have seen a rapid shift amongst the preference of fossil fuels within the energy consumption mix. Oil has continued its rapid decline is close to losing its dominant position as the primary source of energy, while Coal has made considerable leaps over the past decade with natural gas following close behind. This has been evident within trade as well as the dry bulk market has significantly benefited from the growing importance of coal while the tanker market has been struggling to see an equal amount of growth in demand even before the crisis. This has followed through with an increasing amount of innovation in oil exploration such as that of tight oil and shale gas. This has been one of the important factors why we have seen a shift in trade with the U.S. decreasing its Crude oil imports last year by almost 40 million tonnes, while it was mainly thanks to China and India which in-creased theirs by 11 and 13 million tonnes respectively which helped cover much of this gap and provide the tanker market with some support.
Going forward, it is increasingly difficult to see any support from the market fundamentals that could provide a justification to a fast paced increase in tanker tonnage. Tonne miles are running shorter and shorter and although the demand for the commodity is there it seems that there isn’t much room for further growth in the fleet. The big promise that was West Africa in helping create further tonne-miles will likely be outshined by the slowly increasing production from East and Southern Africa. The Middle East still holds its top podium position with regards to trade exports and is situated fairly close to both China and India when compared to the distance VLs had to take to go around the Cape to get to the U.S. At the same time we expect more pipeline deals with the Far East to be struck by the other main exporter which is Russia.
In conclusion, there may well be an optimistic growth in demand for energy commodities such as crude oil, however it is looking increasingly difficult for this to translate over to increased seaborne trade and although Chinese and India Consumption will likely rise rapidly over the next couple of years , unless there is a rapid change in regional energy imbalances, the growth in shipping requirements is set to hold at a fairly slow pace.
- George Lazaridis - Research Analyst -
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 16 July 14
INDIA BUDGET HAS LIMITED SHORT TERM IMPACT ON POWER SECTOR - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings says that the measures announced relating to India's electricity sector in the budget for FY2015 are directionally correct but in ...
Wednesday, 16 July 14
WEEKLY SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Wake me up when September ends - Theodore Ntalakos
Since last September most thought that the worst was behind us. It looks like the market de ...
Tuesday, 15 July 14
INDONESIA'S TOTAL COAL PRODUCTION REACHED ANOTHER HIGH DURING THE FIRST SIX MONTHS; GOVERNMENT EXPECTED TO RAISE ROYALTIES
COALspot.com: Indonesia's total coal production reached 213 million tons during January through June, up by 7.6 percent y-o-y. Coal output in I ...
Monday, 14 July 14
THE END OF THE ERA OF HEAVY FUEL OIL IN MARITIME SHIPPING - ICCT
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Since the 1960s, heavy fuel oil (HFO) has been the king of marine fuels. Viscous, dirty, yet inexpensive and widely avail ...
Monday, 14 July 14
SGX SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP FOR Q4' 14 DELIVERY CLOSED AT $ 54.80
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q3’ 2014 lost on day, week and on month according to AsiaClear OTC coal swap's reports re ...
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- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- White Energy Company Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Planning Commission, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
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