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Tuesday, 08 July 14
ENERGY IN THE MIX - INTERMODAL SHIPBROKERS
With the Tanker freight market having showed much promise this year compared to the performance that had been noted during the previous five, it is interesting to take on a review and outlook of the energy market as a whole. With the Developing nations having played a catch up gain during most of the 2000’s and having been found in a more advantageous position in terms of their continued economic development after the financial crisis of 2008, a considerable weight has been placed on these economies to drive demand forward for most of the energy commodities such as crude oil, coal and natural gas which play an integral part in shipping. Whilst most regions such as North America and Europe, which historically held the lions share for consumption of energy, have been holding steady in their requirements the Astronomical growth in demand from the Asia Pacific region has been the main source of demand growth for much more than a decade now.
China has been the main reason for those, with a key part having been played in the past by Japan and North Korea as well and India now quickly stepping up to take up it’s as a main contender. As these economies went through their stages of economic development, it was well known that an exponential increase in energy consumption would be one of the main byproducts of this. However, with time another pattern has slowly started to emerge.
Despite the rapid growth of energy consumption per capita, the growing worries regarding sources of energy and the sustainability and “cleanness” of our energy consumption has pushed for an ever more efficient and innovative mix of energy consumption, in turn driving for an ever slower growth of energy demand compared to the average GDP growth of the global economy. As pointed out earlier this year by the BP in its Energy outlook report, the amount of energy required per unit of GDP is expected to decline by 1.9% per year over the next 20 years while this figure is more than double the decline rate that was noted in the past decade. This means that we are slowly moving to a higher independence from energy, requiring less input to achieve an ever higher economic output. This could even prove to be an underestimate as typically energy plays a more primal role at the early stages of economic development and once both China and India (the current mammoths of global economic growth) get past this stage, they will likely shift their needs respectively causing a further slowdown in energy consumption per GDP.
A second point which will prove to be of more vital importance, though the trend seems to be moving at a slower pace, is how the world economy as a whole is slowly moving away from fossil fuels towards renewable sources of energy, with the latter expected to take a further 5% from the energy mix within the next 20 years. This has its significance on the shipping industry, as its fossil fuels that are transported by sea and they also take up a considerable portion of world seaborne trade.
Further to this we have seen a rapid shift amongst the preference of fossil fuels within the energy consumption mix. Oil has continued its rapid decline is close to losing its dominant position as the primary source of energy, while Coal has made considerable leaps over the past decade with natural gas following close behind. This has been evident within trade as well as the dry bulk market has significantly benefited from the growing importance of coal while the tanker market has been struggling to see an equal amount of growth in demand even before the crisis. This has followed through with an increasing amount of innovation in oil exploration such as that of tight oil and shale gas. This has been one of the important factors why we have seen a shift in trade with the U.S. decreasing its Crude oil imports last year by almost 40 million tonnes, while it was mainly thanks to China and India which in-creased theirs by 11 and 13 million tonnes respectively which helped cover much of this gap and provide the tanker market with some support.
Going forward, it is increasingly difficult to see any support from the market fundamentals that could provide a justification to a fast paced increase in tanker tonnage. Tonne miles are running shorter and shorter and although the demand for the commodity is there it seems that there isn’t much room for further growth in the fleet. The big promise that was West Africa in helping create further tonne-miles will likely be outshined by the slowly increasing production from East and Southern Africa. The Middle East still holds its top podium position with regards to trade exports and is situated fairly close to both China and India when compared to the distance VLs had to take to go around the Cape to get to the U.S. At the same time we expect more pipeline deals with the Far East to be struck by the other main exporter which is Russia.
In conclusion, there may well be an optimistic growth in demand for energy commodities such as crude oil, however it is looking increasingly difficult for this to translate over to increased seaborne trade and although Chinese and India Consumption will likely rise rapidly over the next couple of years , unless there is a rapid change in regional energy imbalances, the growth in shipping requirements is set to hold at a fairly slow pace.
- George Lazaridis - Research Analyst -
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 07 July 14
SOUTH AFRICA'S RICHARDS BAY COAL TERMINAL SHIPPED 12% LESS COAL IN JUNE COMPARED TO MAY EXPORTS
COALspot.com: South Africa's Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT) the world’s single largest export coal terminal, shipped 4.91 million tons ...
Monday, 07 July 14
INDONESIAN SUB-BIT COAL SWAPS FOR Q3 DELIVERY CRASHES THROUGH $ 54.50
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q3’ 2014 lost on day, week and on month according to AsiaClear OTC coal swap's reports re ...
Monday, 07 July 14
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS SHOW A DOWNWARD TREND THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for delivery in Q3 drops US$ 5.47 month on month on Friday, dipping under $68 a ton. The CFR South Ch ...
Sunday, 06 July 14
PANAMAX INDEX BEING THE BIGGEST GAINER THIS WEEK; UP 52.75% W-O-W
COALspot.com: This week there was some positive signs in all the sectors. The Panamax index being the biggest gainer this week after losing for sev ...
Friday, 04 July 14
US: WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION SLIGHTLY UP W-O-W
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 19.4 million short tons (mmst) of coa ...
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- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The University of Queensland
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
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