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Tuesday, 08 July 14
ENERGY IN THE MIX - INTERMODAL SHIPBROKERS
 With the Tanker freight market having showed much promise this year compared to the performance that had been noted during the previous five, it is interesting to take on a review and outlook of the energy market as a whole. With the Developing nations having played a catch up gain during most of the 2000’s and having been found in a more advantageous position in terms of their continued economic development after the financial crisis of 2008, a considerable weight has been placed on these economies to drive demand forward for most of the energy commodities such as crude oil, coal and natural gas which play an integral part in shipping. Whilst most regions such as North America and Europe, which historically held the lions share for consumption of energy, have been holding steady in their requirements the Astronomical growth in demand from the Asia Pacific region has been the main source of demand growth for much more than a decade now.
China has been the main reason for those, with a key part having been played in the past by Japan and North Korea as well and India now quickly stepping up to take up it’s as a main contender. As these economies went through their stages of economic development, it was well known that an exponential increase in energy consumption would be one of the main byproducts of this. However, with time another pattern has slowly started to emerge.
Despite the rapid growth of energy consumption per capita, the growing worries regarding sources of energy and the sustainability and “cleanness” of our energy consumption has pushed for an ever more efficient and innovative mix of energy consumption, in turn driving for an ever slower growth of energy demand compared to the average GDP growth of the global economy. As pointed out earlier this year by the BP in its Energy outlook report, the amount of energy required per unit of GDP is expected to decline by 1.9% per year over the next 20 years while this figure is more than double the decline rate that was noted in the past decade. This means that we are slowly moving to a higher independence from energy, requiring less input to achieve an ever higher economic output. This could even prove to be an underestimate as typically energy plays a more primal role at the early stages of economic development and once both China and India (the current mammoths of global economic growth) get past this stage, they will likely shift their needs respectively causing a further slowdown in energy consumption per GDP.
A second point which will prove to be of more vital importance, though the trend seems to be moving at a slower pace, is how the world economy as a whole is slowly moving away from fossil fuels towards renewable sources of energy, with the latter expected to take a further 5% from the energy mix within the next 20 years. This has its significance on the shipping industry, as its fossil fuels that are transported by sea and they also take up a considerable portion of world seaborne trade.
Further to this we have seen a rapid shift amongst the preference of fossil fuels within the energy consumption mix. Oil has continued its rapid decline is close to losing its dominant position as the primary source of energy, while Coal has made considerable leaps over the past decade with natural gas following close behind. This has been evident within trade as well as the dry bulk market has significantly benefited from the growing importance of coal while the tanker market has been struggling to see an equal amount of growth in demand even before the crisis. This has followed through with an increasing amount of innovation in oil exploration such as that of tight oil and shale gas. This has been one of the important factors why we have seen a shift in trade with the U.S. decreasing its Crude oil imports last year by almost 40 million tonnes, while it was mainly thanks to China and India which in-creased theirs by 11 and 13 million tonnes respectively which helped cover much of this gap and provide the tanker market with some support.
Going forward, it is increasingly difficult to see any support from the market fundamentals that could provide a justification to a fast paced increase in tanker tonnage. Tonne miles are running shorter and shorter and although the demand for the commodity is there it seems that there isn’t much room for further growth in the fleet. The big promise that was West Africa in helping create further tonne-miles will likely be outshined by the slowly increasing production from East and Southern Africa. The Middle East still holds its top podium position with regards to trade exports and is situated fairly close to both China and India when compared to the distance VLs had to take to go around the Cape to get to the U.S. At the same time we expect more pipeline deals with the Far East to be struck by the other main exporter which is Russia.
In conclusion, there may well be an optimistic growth in demand for energy commodities such as crude oil, however it is looking increasingly difficult for this to translate over to increased seaborne trade and although Chinese and India Consumption will likely rise rapidly over the next couple of years , unless there is a rapid change in regional energy imbalances, the growth in shipping requirements is set to hold at a fairly slow pace.
- George Lazaridis - Research Analyst -
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 07 July 14
SOUTH AFRICA'S RICHARDS BAY COAL TERMINAL SHIPPED 12% LESS COAL IN JUNE COMPARED TO MAY EXPORTS
COALspot.com: South Africa's Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT) the world’s single largest export coal terminal, shipped 4.91 million tons ...
Monday, 07 July 14
INDONESIAN SUB-BIT COAL SWAPS FOR Q3 DELIVERY CRASHES THROUGH $ 54.50
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q3’ 2014 lost on day, week and on month according to AsiaClear OTC coal swap's reports re ...
Monday, 07 July 14
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS SHOW A DOWNWARD TREND THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for delivery in Q3 drops US$ 5.47 month on month on Friday, dipping under $68 a ton. The CFR South Ch ...
Sunday, 06 July 14
PANAMAX INDEX BEING THE BIGGEST GAINER THIS WEEK; UP 52.75% W-O-W
COALspot.com: This week there was some positive signs in all the sectors. The Panamax index being the biggest gainer this week after losing for sev ...
Friday, 04 July 14
US: WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION SLIGHTLY UP W-O-W
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 19.4 million short tons (mmst) of coa ...
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- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- PTC India Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
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