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Tuesday, 08 July 14
ENERGY IN THE MIX - INTERMODAL SHIPBROKERS
 With the Tanker freight market having showed much promise this year compared to the performance that had been noted during the previous five, it is interesting to take on a review and outlook of the energy market as a whole. With the Developing nations having played a catch up gain during most of the 2000’s and having been found in a more advantageous position in terms of their continued economic development after the financial crisis of 2008, a considerable weight has been placed on these economies to drive demand forward for most of the energy commodities such as crude oil, coal and natural gas which play an integral part in shipping. Whilst most regions such as North America and Europe, which historically held the lions share for consumption of energy, have been holding steady in their requirements the Astronomical growth in demand from the Asia Pacific region has been the main source of demand growth for much more than a decade now.
China has been the main reason for those, with a key part having been played in the past by Japan and North Korea as well and India now quickly stepping up to take up it’s as a main contender. As these economies went through their stages of economic development, it was well known that an exponential increase in energy consumption would be one of the main byproducts of this. However, with time another pattern has slowly started to emerge.
Despite the rapid growth of energy consumption per capita, the growing worries regarding sources of energy and the sustainability and “cleanness” of our energy consumption has pushed for an ever more efficient and innovative mix of energy consumption, in turn driving for an ever slower growth of energy demand compared to the average GDP growth of the global economy. As pointed out earlier this year by the BP in its Energy outlook report, the amount of energy required per unit of GDP is expected to decline by 1.9% per year over the next 20 years while this figure is more than double the decline rate that was noted in the past decade. This means that we are slowly moving to a higher independence from energy, requiring less input to achieve an ever higher economic output. This could even prove to be an underestimate as typically energy plays a more primal role at the early stages of economic development and once both China and India (the current mammoths of global economic growth) get past this stage, they will likely shift their needs respectively causing a further slowdown in energy consumption per GDP.
A second point which will prove to be of more vital importance, though the trend seems to be moving at a slower pace, is how the world economy as a whole is slowly moving away from fossil fuels towards renewable sources of energy, with the latter expected to take a further 5% from the energy mix within the next 20 years. This has its significance on the shipping industry, as its fossil fuels that are transported by sea and they also take up a considerable portion of world seaborne trade.
Further to this we have seen a rapid shift amongst the preference of fossil fuels within the energy consumption mix. Oil has continued its rapid decline is close to losing its dominant position as the primary source of energy, while Coal has made considerable leaps over the past decade with natural gas following close behind. This has been evident within trade as well as the dry bulk market has significantly benefited from the growing importance of coal while the tanker market has been struggling to see an equal amount of growth in demand even before the crisis. This has followed through with an increasing amount of innovation in oil exploration such as that of tight oil and shale gas. This has been one of the important factors why we have seen a shift in trade with the U.S. decreasing its Crude oil imports last year by almost 40 million tonnes, while it was mainly thanks to China and India which in-creased theirs by 11 and 13 million tonnes respectively which helped cover much of this gap and provide the tanker market with some support.
Going forward, it is increasingly difficult to see any support from the market fundamentals that could provide a justification to a fast paced increase in tanker tonnage. Tonne miles are running shorter and shorter and although the demand for the commodity is there it seems that there isn’t much room for further growth in the fleet. The big promise that was West Africa in helping create further tonne-miles will likely be outshined by the slowly increasing production from East and Southern Africa. The Middle East still holds its top podium position with regards to trade exports and is situated fairly close to both China and India when compared to the distance VLs had to take to go around the Cape to get to the U.S. At the same time we expect more pipeline deals with the Far East to be struck by the other main exporter which is Russia.
In conclusion, there may well be an optimistic growth in demand for energy commodities such as crude oil, however it is looking increasingly difficult for this to translate over to increased seaborne trade and although Chinese and India Consumption will likely rise rapidly over the next couple of years , unless there is a rapid change in regional energy imbalances, the growth in shipping requirements is set to hold at a fairly slow pace.
- George Lazaridis - Research Analyst -
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 09 July 14
PANAMAX MARKET FINALLY CORRECTING UPWARDS; AVERAGE TC MORE THAN DOUBLING WEEK ON WEEK - INTERMODAL
The Dry Bulk market has closed off on Friday on a more positive note, with most segments noting weekly gains and the Panamax market finally correct ...
Wednesday, 09 July 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS
The mini-boom in dry bulker values catapulted ship prices too fast too far over the last one-and-a-half year. The concurrence of historically low p ...
Tuesday, 08 July 14
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE FALL AGAIN IN JULY; LOST 1.62%
COALspot.com - The Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources of Indonesia again revised down the coal bench mark price in July. HBA for month of J ...
Monday, 07 July 14
INDONESIA STATE-CONTROLLED COAL MINER BUKIT ASAM TO TRADE COAL ON-LINE THROUGH JFX
COALspot.com: Indonesian state owned coal miner PT Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam Tbk (PTBA) has teamed up with Jakarta Futures Exchange (JFX) to sell ...
Monday, 07 July 14
RBCT, THE WORLD'S SINGLE LARGEST EXPORT COAL TERMINAL SHIPPED 31.91 MMT OF COAL IN H1 2014
COALspot.com: South Africa's Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT) the world’s single largest export coal terminal, shipped 31.91 million ton ...
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- VISA Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
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