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Tuesday, 08 July 14
ENERGY IN THE MIX - INTERMODAL SHIPBROKERS
 With the Tanker freight market having showed much promise this year compared to the performance that had been noted during the previous five, it is interesting to take on a review and outlook of the energy market as a whole. With the Developing nations having played a catch up gain during most of the 2000’s and having been found in a more advantageous position in terms of their continued economic development after the financial crisis of 2008, a considerable weight has been placed on these economies to drive demand forward for most of the energy commodities such as crude oil, coal and natural gas which play an integral part in shipping. Whilst most regions such as North America and Europe, which historically held the lions share for consumption of energy, have been holding steady in their requirements the Astronomical growth in demand from the Asia Pacific region has been the main source of demand growth for much more than a decade now.
China has been the main reason for those, with a key part having been played in the past by Japan and North Korea as well and India now quickly stepping up to take up it’s as a main contender. As these economies went through their stages of economic development, it was well known that an exponential increase in energy consumption would be one of the main byproducts of this. However, with time another pattern has slowly started to emerge.
Despite the rapid growth of energy consumption per capita, the growing worries regarding sources of energy and the sustainability and “cleanness” of our energy consumption has pushed for an ever more efficient and innovative mix of energy consumption, in turn driving for an ever slower growth of energy demand compared to the average GDP growth of the global economy. As pointed out earlier this year by the BP in its Energy outlook report, the amount of energy required per unit of GDP is expected to decline by 1.9% per year over the next 20 years while this figure is more than double the decline rate that was noted in the past decade. This means that we are slowly moving to a higher independence from energy, requiring less input to achieve an ever higher economic output. This could even prove to be an underestimate as typically energy plays a more primal role at the early stages of economic development and once both China and India (the current mammoths of global economic growth) get past this stage, they will likely shift their needs respectively causing a further slowdown in energy consumption per GDP.
A second point which will prove to be of more vital importance, though the trend seems to be moving at a slower pace, is how the world economy as a whole is slowly moving away from fossil fuels towards renewable sources of energy, with the latter expected to take a further 5% from the energy mix within the next 20 years. This has its significance on the shipping industry, as its fossil fuels that are transported by sea and they also take up a considerable portion of world seaborne trade.
Further to this we have seen a rapid shift amongst the preference of fossil fuels within the energy consumption mix. Oil has continued its rapid decline is close to losing its dominant position as the primary source of energy, while Coal has made considerable leaps over the past decade with natural gas following close behind. This has been evident within trade as well as the dry bulk market has significantly benefited from the growing importance of coal while the tanker market has been struggling to see an equal amount of growth in demand even before the crisis. This has followed through with an increasing amount of innovation in oil exploration such as that of tight oil and shale gas. This has been one of the important factors why we have seen a shift in trade with the U.S. decreasing its Crude oil imports last year by almost 40 million tonnes, while it was mainly thanks to China and India which in-creased theirs by 11 and 13 million tonnes respectively which helped cover much of this gap and provide the tanker market with some support.
Going forward, it is increasingly difficult to see any support from the market fundamentals that could provide a justification to a fast paced increase in tanker tonnage. Tonne miles are running shorter and shorter and although the demand for the commodity is there it seems that there isn’t much room for further growth in the fleet. The big promise that was West Africa in helping create further tonne-miles will likely be outshined by the slowly increasing production from East and Southern Africa. The Middle East still holds its top podium position with regards to trade exports and is situated fairly close to both China and India when compared to the distance VLs had to take to go around the Cape to get to the U.S. At the same time we expect more pipeline deals with the Far East to be struck by the other main exporter which is Russia.
In conclusion, there may well be an optimistic growth in demand for energy commodities such as crude oil, however it is looking increasingly difficult for this to translate over to increased seaborne trade and although Chinese and India Consumption will likely rise rapidly over the next couple of years , unless there is a rapid change in regional energy imbalances, the growth in shipping requirements is set to hold at a fairly slow pace.
- George Lazaridis - Research Analyst -
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 14 July 14
SGX CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP FOR Q3' 14 LOST 17.29% SINCE EARLY JANUARY 2014
COALspot.com: Coal price falling is continues as the impact oversupply and lower demand. API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for delivery in Q3 drops U ...
Sunday, 13 July 14
PANAMAX INDEX GAINS SLIGHTLY THIS WEEK; CAPE INDEX FALLS ALMOST 21.40%
COALspot.com: This week the freight market fell again after gaining last week. The cape index was down almost 21.40 pct and closed at 1465 points.
...
Friday, 11 July 14
EUROPE HAS A SUBSTANTIAL SURPLUS IN COAL SUPPLIES; RENEWABLE ENERGIES ARE REDUCING THE FULL-LOAD OPERATING HOURS OF HARD COAL-FIRED POWER PLANTS - VDKI
COALspot.com: General conditions for coal-fired power plants must be improved if the energy turnaround is to be a success, said German coal importe ...
Friday, 11 July 14
DR.CIESLIK RE-ELECTED AS CEO OF GERMAN COAL IMPORTER ASSOCIATION (VDKI)
Press Release : Dr Cieslik re-elected as CEO of German Coal Importer Association (VDKi) for the period 2014 – 2018. The German Coal Importer ...
Friday, 11 July 14
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED $ 1.031 BILLION WORTH OF 11.744 MILLION TONS OF COAL IN JUNE 2014
COALspot.com: Port of Newcastle has shipped 11,744,396 tons of coal for the month ended 30 June 2014. According to Port’s monthly report, YTD ...
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- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The University of Queensland
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
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