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Tuesday, 08 July 14
ENERGY IN THE MIX - INTERMODAL SHIPBROKERS
 With the Tanker freight market having showed much promise this year compared to the performance that had been noted during the previous five, it is interesting to take on a review and outlook of the energy market as a whole. With the Developing nations having played a catch up gain during most of the 2000’s and having been found in a more advantageous position in terms of their continued economic development after the financial crisis of 2008, a considerable weight has been placed on these economies to drive demand forward for most of the energy commodities such as crude oil, coal and natural gas which play an integral part in shipping. Whilst most regions such as North America and Europe, which historically held the lions share for consumption of energy, have been holding steady in their requirements the Astronomical growth in demand from the Asia Pacific region has been the main source of demand growth for much more than a decade now.
China has been the main reason for those, with a key part having been played in the past by Japan and North Korea as well and India now quickly stepping up to take up it’s as a main contender. As these economies went through their stages of economic development, it was well known that an exponential increase in energy consumption would be one of the main byproducts of this. However, with time another pattern has slowly started to emerge.
Despite the rapid growth of energy consumption per capita, the growing worries regarding sources of energy and the sustainability and “cleanness” of our energy consumption has pushed for an ever more efficient and innovative mix of energy consumption, in turn driving for an ever slower growth of energy demand compared to the average GDP growth of the global economy. As pointed out earlier this year by the BP in its Energy outlook report, the amount of energy required per unit of GDP is expected to decline by 1.9% per year over the next 20 years while this figure is more than double the decline rate that was noted in the past decade. This means that we are slowly moving to a higher independence from energy, requiring less input to achieve an ever higher economic output. This could even prove to be an underestimate as typically energy plays a more primal role at the early stages of economic development and once both China and India (the current mammoths of global economic growth) get past this stage, they will likely shift their needs respectively causing a further slowdown in energy consumption per GDP.
A second point which will prove to be of more vital importance, though the trend seems to be moving at a slower pace, is how the world economy as a whole is slowly moving away from fossil fuels towards renewable sources of energy, with the latter expected to take a further 5% from the energy mix within the next 20 years. This has its significance on the shipping industry, as its fossil fuels that are transported by sea and they also take up a considerable portion of world seaborne trade.
Further to this we have seen a rapid shift amongst the preference of fossil fuels within the energy consumption mix. Oil has continued its rapid decline is close to losing its dominant position as the primary source of energy, while Coal has made considerable leaps over the past decade with natural gas following close behind. This has been evident within trade as well as the dry bulk market has significantly benefited from the growing importance of coal while the tanker market has been struggling to see an equal amount of growth in demand even before the crisis. This has followed through with an increasing amount of innovation in oil exploration such as that of tight oil and shale gas. This has been one of the important factors why we have seen a shift in trade with the U.S. decreasing its Crude oil imports last year by almost 40 million tonnes, while it was mainly thanks to China and India which in-creased theirs by 11 and 13 million tonnes respectively which helped cover much of this gap and provide the tanker market with some support.
Going forward, it is increasingly difficult to see any support from the market fundamentals that could provide a justification to a fast paced increase in tanker tonnage. Tonne miles are running shorter and shorter and although the demand for the commodity is there it seems that there isn’t much room for further growth in the fleet. The big promise that was West Africa in helping create further tonne-miles will likely be outshined by the slowly increasing production from East and Southern Africa. The Middle East still holds its top podium position with regards to trade exports and is situated fairly close to both China and India when compared to the distance VLs had to take to go around the Cape to get to the U.S. At the same time we expect more pipeline deals with the Far East to be struck by the other main exporter which is Russia.
In conclusion, there may well be an optimistic growth in demand for energy commodities such as crude oil, however it is looking increasingly difficult for this to translate over to increased seaborne trade and although Chinese and India Consumption will likely rise rapidly over the next couple of years , unless there is a rapid change in regional energy imbalances, the growth in shipping requirements is set to hold at a fairly slow pace.
- George Lazaridis - Research Analyst -
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 14 July 14
SGX CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP FOR Q3' 14 LOST 17.29% SINCE EARLY JANUARY 2014
COALspot.com: Coal price falling is continues as the impact oversupply and lower demand. API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for delivery in Q3 drops U ...
Sunday, 13 July 14
PANAMAX INDEX GAINS SLIGHTLY THIS WEEK; CAPE INDEX FALLS ALMOST 21.40%
COALspot.com: This week the freight market fell again after gaining last week. The cape index was down almost 21.40 pct and closed at 1465 points.
...
Friday, 11 July 14
EUROPE HAS A SUBSTANTIAL SURPLUS IN COAL SUPPLIES; RENEWABLE ENERGIES ARE REDUCING THE FULL-LOAD OPERATING HOURS OF HARD COAL-FIRED POWER PLANTS - VDKI
COALspot.com: General conditions for coal-fired power plants must be improved if the energy turnaround is to be a success, said German coal importe ...
Friday, 11 July 14
DR.CIESLIK RE-ELECTED AS CEO OF GERMAN COAL IMPORTER ASSOCIATION (VDKI)
Press Release : Dr Cieslik re-elected as CEO of German Coal Importer Association (VDKi) for the period 2014 – 2018. The German Coal Importer ...
Friday, 11 July 14
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED $ 1.031 BILLION WORTH OF 11.744 MILLION TONS OF COAL IN JUNE 2014
COALspot.com: Port of Newcastle has shipped 11,744,396 tons of coal for the month ended 30 June 2014. According to Port’s monthly report, YTD ...
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- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
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