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Tuesday, 08 July 14
ENERGY IN THE MIX - INTERMODAL SHIPBROKERS
 With the Tanker freight market having showed much promise this year compared to the performance that had been noted during the previous five, it is interesting to take on a review and outlook of the energy market as a whole. With the Developing nations having played a catch up gain during most of the 2000’s and having been found in a more advantageous position in terms of their continued economic development after the financial crisis of 2008, a considerable weight has been placed on these economies to drive demand forward for most of the energy commodities such as crude oil, coal and natural gas which play an integral part in shipping. Whilst most regions such as North America and Europe, which historically held the lions share for consumption of energy, have been holding steady in their requirements the Astronomical growth in demand from the Asia Pacific region has been the main source of demand growth for much more than a decade now.
China has been the main reason for those, with a key part having been played in the past by Japan and North Korea as well and India now quickly stepping up to take up it’s as a main contender. As these economies went through their stages of economic development, it was well known that an exponential increase in energy consumption would be one of the main byproducts of this. However, with time another pattern has slowly started to emerge.
Despite the rapid growth of energy consumption per capita, the growing worries regarding sources of energy and the sustainability and “cleanness” of our energy consumption has pushed for an ever more efficient and innovative mix of energy consumption, in turn driving for an ever slower growth of energy demand compared to the average GDP growth of the global economy. As pointed out earlier this year by the BP in its Energy outlook report, the amount of energy required per unit of GDP is expected to decline by 1.9% per year over the next 20 years while this figure is more than double the decline rate that was noted in the past decade. This means that we are slowly moving to a higher independence from energy, requiring less input to achieve an ever higher economic output. This could even prove to be an underestimate as typically energy plays a more primal role at the early stages of economic development and once both China and India (the current mammoths of global economic growth) get past this stage, they will likely shift their needs respectively causing a further slowdown in energy consumption per GDP.
A second point which will prove to be of more vital importance, though the trend seems to be moving at a slower pace, is how the world economy as a whole is slowly moving away from fossil fuels towards renewable sources of energy, with the latter expected to take a further 5% from the energy mix within the next 20 years. This has its significance on the shipping industry, as its fossil fuels that are transported by sea and they also take up a considerable portion of world seaborne trade.
Further to this we have seen a rapid shift amongst the preference of fossil fuels within the energy consumption mix. Oil has continued its rapid decline is close to losing its dominant position as the primary source of energy, while Coal has made considerable leaps over the past decade with natural gas following close behind. This has been evident within trade as well as the dry bulk market has significantly benefited from the growing importance of coal while the tanker market has been struggling to see an equal amount of growth in demand even before the crisis. This has followed through with an increasing amount of innovation in oil exploration such as that of tight oil and shale gas. This has been one of the important factors why we have seen a shift in trade with the U.S. decreasing its Crude oil imports last year by almost 40 million tonnes, while it was mainly thanks to China and India which in-creased theirs by 11 and 13 million tonnes respectively which helped cover much of this gap and provide the tanker market with some support.
Going forward, it is increasingly difficult to see any support from the market fundamentals that could provide a justification to a fast paced increase in tanker tonnage. Tonne miles are running shorter and shorter and although the demand for the commodity is there it seems that there isn’t much room for further growth in the fleet. The big promise that was West Africa in helping create further tonne-miles will likely be outshined by the slowly increasing production from East and Southern Africa. The Middle East still holds its top podium position with regards to trade exports and is situated fairly close to both China and India when compared to the distance VLs had to take to go around the Cape to get to the U.S. At the same time we expect more pipeline deals with the Far East to be struck by the other main exporter which is Russia.
In conclusion, there may well be an optimistic growth in demand for energy commodities such as crude oil, however it is looking increasingly difficult for this to translate over to increased seaborne trade and although Chinese and India Consumption will likely rise rapidly over the next couple of years , unless there is a rapid change in regional energy imbalances, the growth in shipping requirements is set to hold at a fairly slow pace.
- George Lazaridis - Research Analyst -
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 31 July 14
RIO TINTO SELLS MOZAMBIQUE COAL ASSETS FOR US$ 50 MILLION TO INDIA'S ICVL
COALspot.com: Rio Tinto has agreed to sell its Mozambique coal assets for just US$ 50 million to International coal ventures Private limited of Ind ...
Wednesday, 30 July 14
CAPES SEEMED TO BE STRANDED AT THE SAME LEVELS; PANAMAXES MANAGED TO SLIGHTLY REVIVE - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market took a breath this past week, as both Panamaxes and Supras started to see a small influx of activity, which was j ...
Tuesday, 29 July 14
TOTAL SELLS ITS SOUTH AFRICAN COAL MINING ASSETS TO EXXARO
Total has signed an agreement with Exxaro Resources Ltd for the sale of its 100% stake in Total Coal South Africa (TCSA), its coal-producing affili ...
Tuesday, 29 July 14
GENCO: DRY BULK SHIPPING VALUATIONS NO LONGER ANCHORED TO DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW METHOD - WEIL
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Discounted cash flow analysis is a mainstay among the valuation methodologies used by restructuring professionals and bank ...
Tuesday, 29 July 14
SHIP OWNERS' DEMAND OF NEW VESSELS DENTED AS A RESULT OF LOWER FREIGHT RATES - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The sharp downward direction of dry bulk freight rates has had a negative impact on investors’ secondhand buying appetite that wait to see th ...
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- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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