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Tuesday, 08 July 14
ENERGY IN THE MIX - INTERMODAL SHIPBROKERS
 With the Tanker freight market having showed much promise this year compared to the performance that had been noted during the previous five, it is interesting to take on a review and outlook of the energy market as a whole. With the Developing nations having played a catch up gain during most of the 2000’s and having been found in a more advantageous position in terms of their continued economic development after the financial crisis of 2008, a considerable weight has been placed on these economies to drive demand forward for most of the energy commodities such as crude oil, coal and natural gas which play an integral part in shipping. Whilst most regions such as North America and Europe, which historically held the lions share for consumption of energy, have been holding steady in their requirements the Astronomical growth in demand from the Asia Pacific region has been the main source of demand growth for much more than a decade now.
China has been the main reason for those, with a key part having been played in the past by Japan and North Korea as well and India now quickly stepping up to take up it’s as a main contender. As these economies went through their stages of economic development, it was well known that an exponential increase in energy consumption would be one of the main byproducts of this. However, with time another pattern has slowly started to emerge.
Despite the rapid growth of energy consumption per capita, the growing worries regarding sources of energy and the sustainability and “cleanness” of our energy consumption has pushed for an ever more efficient and innovative mix of energy consumption, in turn driving for an ever slower growth of energy demand compared to the average GDP growth of the global economy. As pointed out earlier this year by the BP in its Energy outlook report, the amount of energy required per unit of GDP is expected to decline by 1.9% per year over the next 20 years while this figure is more than double the decline rate that was noted in the past decade. This means that we are slowly moving to a higher independence from energy, requiring less input to achieve an ever higher economic output. This could even prove to be an underestimate as typically energy plays a more primal role at the early stages of economic development and once both China and India (the current mammoths of global economic growth) get past this stage, they will likely shift their needs respectively causing a further slowdown in energy consumption per GDP.
A second point which will prove to be of more vital importance, though the trend seems to be moving at a slower pace, is how the world economy as a whole is slowly moving away from fossil fuels towards renewable sources of energy, with the latter expected to take a further 5% from the energy mix within the next 20 years. This has its significance on the shipping industry, as its fossil fuels that are transported by sea and they also take up a considerable portion of world seaborne trade.
Further to this we have seen a rapid shift amongst the preference of fossil fuels within the energy consumption mix. Oil has continued its rapid decline is close to losing its dominant position as the primary source of energy, while Coal has made considerable leaps over the past decade with natural gas following close behind. This has been evident within trade as well as the dry bulk market has significantly benefited from the growing importance of coal while the tanker market has been struggling to see an equal amount of growth in demand even before the crisis. This has followed through with an increasing amount of innovation in oil exploration such as that of tight oil and shale gas. This has been one of the important factors why we have seen a shift in trade with the U.S. decreasing its Crude oil imports last year by almost 40 million tonnes, while it was mainly thanks to China and India which in-creased theirs by 11 and 13 million tonnes respectively which helped cover much of this gap and provide the tanker market with some support.
Going forward, it is increasingly difficult to see any support from the market fundamentals that could provide a justification to a fast paced increase in tanker tonnage. Tonne miles are running shorter and shorter and although the demand for the commodity is there it seems that there isn’t much room for further growth in the fleet. The big promise that was West Africa in helping create further tonne-miles will likely be outshined by the slowly increasing production from East and Southern Africa. The Middle East still holds its top podium position with regards to trade exports and is situated fairly close to both China and India when compared to the distance VLs had to take to go around the Cape to get to the U.S. At the same time we expect more pipeline deals with the Far East to be struck by the other main exporter which is Russia.
In conclusion, there may well be an optimistic growth in demand for energy commodities such as crude oil, however it is looking increasingly difficult for this to translate over to increased seaborne trade and although Chinese and India Consumption will likely rise rapidly over the next couple of years , unless there is a rapid change in regional energy imbalances, the growth in shipping requirements is set to hold at a fairly slow pace.
- George Lazaridis - Research Analyst -
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 25 July 14
U.S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION UP AROUND 3.5% WEEK ENDED JULY 19
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 19.00 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Thursday, 24 July 14
INDONESIA'S JUNE 2014 COAL EXPORT VOLUME DOWN 6.82%; AVERAGE SELLING PRICE DOWN
COALspot.com: Indonesia, one of the world's largest coal producer and the global leading multi grade coal exporter shipped around $1.70* ...
Thursday, 24 July 14
HANDY: SOUTH AFRICA SOFTENED A BIT, HERE RATES ARE AT AROUND 8K +150K BB FOR TRIPS EAST - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
The handy market in the Atlantic is going sideways and a tick down on low activity. Levels hoovering around USD 5k on Supras. The SMX marke ...
Thursday, 24 July 14
INDONESIAN COAL EXPORTERS ARE REQUIRED TO OBTAIN ET-BATUBARA UNDER LATEST TRADE MINISTRY'S NEW REGULATION
COALspot.com: Indonesia's trade ministry has issued regulation No. 39/M-DAG/PER/7/2014 which is requires exporters of power plant coal as ...
Wednesday, 23 July 14
PANAMAXES WERE BACK ON A DOWNWARD COURSE; CAPES WERE FEELING THE MOST PRESSURE - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market was on a downward spiral this week, with the BDI noting another week-on-week decline of the magnitude of 10% this ...
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- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
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