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Tuesday, 08 July 14
ENERGY IN THE MIX - INTERMODAL SHIPBROKERS
 With the Tanker freight market having showed much promise this year compared to the performance that had been noted during the previous five, it is interesting to take on a review and outlook of the energy market as a whole. With the Developing nations having played a catch up gain during most of the 2000’s and having been found in a more advantageous position in terms of their continued economic development after the financial crisis of 2008, a considerable weight has been placed on these economies to drive demand forward for most of the energy commodities such as crude oil, coal and natural gas which play an integral part in shipping. Whilst most regions such as North America and Europe, which historically held the lions share for consumption of energy, have been holding steady in their requirements the Astronomical growth in demand from the Asia Pacific region has been the main source of demand growth for much more than a decade now.
China has been the main reason for those, with a key part having been played in the past by Japan and North Korea as well and India now quickly stepping up to take up it’s as a main contender. As these economies went through their stages of economic development, it was well known that an exponential increase in energy consumption would be one of the main byproducts of this. However, with time another pattern has slowly started to emerge.
Despite the rapid growth of energy consumption per capita, the growing worries regarding sources of energy and the sustainability and “cleanness” of our energy consumption has pushed for an ever more efficient and innovative mix of energy consumption, in turn driving for an ever slower growth of energy demand compared to the average GDP growth of the global economy. As pointed out earlier this year by the BP in its Energy outlook report, the amount of energy required per unit of GDP is expected to decline by 1.9% per year over the next 20 years while this figure is more than double the decline rate that was noted in the past decade. This means that we are slowly moving to a higher independence from energy, requiring less input to achieve an ever higher economic output. This could even prove to be an underestimate as typically energy plays a more primal role at the early stages of economic development and once both China and India (the current mammoths of global economic growth) get past this stage, they will likely shift their needs respectively causing a further slowdown in energy consumption per GDP.
A second point which will prove to be of more vital importance, though the trend seems to be moving at a slower pace, is how the world economy as a whole is slowly moving away from fossil fuels towards renewable sources of energy, with the latter expected to take a further 5% from the energy mix within the next 20 years. This has its significance on the shipping industry, as its fossil fuels that are transported by sea and they also take up a considerable portion of world seaborne trade.
Further to this we have seen a rapid shift amongst the preference of fossil fuels within the energy consumption mix. Oil has continued its rapid decline is close to losing its dominant position as the primary source of energy, while Coal has made considerable leaps over the past decade with natural gas following close behind. This has been evident within trade as well as the dry bulk market has significantly benefited from the growing importance of coal while the tanker market has been struggling to see an equal amount of growth in demand even before the crisis. This has followed through with an increasing amount of innovation in oil exploration such as that of tight oil and shale gas. This has been one of the important factors why we have seen a shift in trade with the U.S. decreasing its Crude oil imports last year by almost 40 million tonnes, while it was mainly thanks to China and India which in-creased theirs by 11 and 13 million tonnes respectively which helped cover much of this gap and provide the tanker market with some support.
Going forward, it is increasingly difficult to see any support from the market fundamentals that could provide a justification to a fast paced increase in tanker tonnage. Tonne miles are running shorter and shorter and although the demand for the commodity is there it seems that there isn’t much room for further growth in the fleet. The big promise that was West Africa in helping create further tonne-miles will likely be outshined by the slowly increasing production from East and Southern Africa. The Middle East still holds its top podium position with regards to trade exports and is situated fairly close to both China and India when compared to the distance VLs had to take to go around the Cape to get to the U.S. At the same time we expect more pipeline deals with the Far East to be struck by the other main exporter which is Russia.
In conclusion, there may well be an optimistic growth in demand for energy commodities such as crude oil, however it is looking increasingly difficult for this to translate over to increased seaborne trade and although Chinese and India Consumption will likely rise rapidly over the next couple of years , unless there is a rapid change in regional energy imbalances, the growth in shipping requirements is set to hold at a fairly slow pace.
- George Lazaridis - Research Analyst -
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 04 August 14
Q1' 15 API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED AT US$ 69.37 ON 1 AUGUST 2014; A $ 1.10 HIGHER COMPARED TO Q4' 2014 CLOSING
COALspot.com: Coal swap prices are showing a positive move upward this past week. API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q4, Q1 and Q2 2015 show ...
Sunday, 03 August 14
LACK OF COAL SHIPMENTS FROM FAR EAST/SE ASIA, THE PRESSURE ON CHARTER RATES CONTINUED THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: This week, the freight rates were almost flat as charter rates were also almost steady from last week.
The BDI was up by 2.59 pc ...
Friday, 01 August 14
UNCERTAINTY IN ASIAN COAL MARKETS WHERE INDEX-LINKED PRICING DOMINATES - SGX
COALspot.com: In the past 3 years, seaborne thermal coal markets have been in a state of constant oversupply.
Reuters expects this oversupply ...
Friday, 01 August 14
U.S PRODUCED 19.4 MMST OF COAL IN A WEEK, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 19.40 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Thursday, 31 July 14
CAPESIZE: CARGO VOLUMES, COAL IN PARTICULAR, PRESENTLY NOT SUFFICIENT TO EMPLOY A GROWING FLEET - FERNLEYS
Handy
Both the Atlantic and Pacific has improved in the supramax segment over the last week, said Fernleys in Its latest weekly report . There we ...
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- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
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