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Tuesday, 08 July 14
ENERGY IN THE MIX - INTERMODAL SHIPBROKERS
 With the Tanker freight market having showed much promise this year compared to the performance that had been noted during the previous five, it is interesting to take on a review and outlook of the energy market as a whole. With the Developing nations having played a catch up gain during most of the 2000’s and having been found in a more advantageous position in terms of their continued economic development after the financial crisis of 2008, a considerable weight has been placed on these economies to drive demand forward for most of the energy commodities such as crude oil, coal and natural gas which play an integral part in shipping. Whilst most regions such as North America and Europe, which historically held the lions share for consumption of energy, have been holding steady in their requirements the Astronomical growth in demand from the Asia Pacific region has been the main source of demand growth for much more than a decade now.
China has been the main reason for those, with a key part having been played in the past by Japan and North Korea as well and India now quickly stepping up to take up it’s as a main contender. As these economies went through their stages of economic development, it was well known that an exponential increase in energy consumption would be one of the main byproducts of this. However, with time another pattern has slowly started to emerge.
Despite the rapid growth of energy consumption per capita, the growing worries regarding sources of energy and the sustainability and “cleanness” of our energy consumption has pushed for an ever more efficient and innovative mix of energy consumption, in turn driving for an ever slower growth of energy demand compared to the average GDP growth of the global economy. As pointed out earlier this year by the BP in its Energy outlook report, the amount of energy required per unit of GDP is expected to decline by 1.9% per year over the next 20 years while this figure is more than double the decline rate that was noted in the past decade. This means that we are slowly moving to a higher independence from energy, requiring less input to achieve an ever higher economic output. This could even prove to be an underestimate as typically energy plays a more primal role at the early stages of economic development and once both China and India (the current mammoths of global economic growth) get past this stage, they will likely shift their needs respectively causing a further slowdown in energy consumption per GDP.
A second point which will prove to be of more vital importance, though the trend seems to be moving at a slower pace, is how the world economy as a whole is slowly moving away from fossil fuels towards renewable sources of energy, with the latter expected to take a further 5% from the energy mix within the next 20 years. This has its significance on the shipping industry, as its fossil fuels that are transported by sea and they also take up a considerable portion of world seaborne trade.
Further to this we have seen a rapid shift amongst the preference of fossil fuels within the energy consumption mix. Oil has continued its rapid decline is close to losing its dominant position as the primary source of energy, while Coal has made considerable leaps over the past decade with natural gas following close behind. This has been evident within trade as well as the dry bulk market has significantly benefited from the growing importance of coal while the tanker market has been struggling to see an equal amount of growth in demand even before the crisis. This has followed through with an increasing amount of innovation in oil exploration such as that of tight oil and shale gas. This has been one of the important factors why we have seen a shift in trade with the U.S. decreasing its Crude oil imports last year by almost 40 million tonnes, while it was mainly thanks to China and India which in-creased theirs by 11 and 13 million tonnes respectively which helped cover much of this gap and provide the tanker market with some support.
Going forward, it is increasingly difficult to see any support from the market fundamentals that could provide a justification to a fast paced increase in tanker tonnage. Tonne miles are running shorter and shorter and although the demand for the commodity is there it seems that there isn’t much room for further growth in the fleet. The big promise that was West Africa in helping create further tonne-miles will likely be outshined by the slowly increasing production from East and Southern Africa. The Middle East still holds its top podium position with regards to trade exports and is situated fairly close to both China and India when compared to the distance VLs had to take to go around the Cape to get to the U.S. At the same time we expect more pipeline deals with the Far East to be struck by the other main exporter which is Russia.
In conclusion, there may well be an optimistic growth in demand for energy commodities such as crude oil, however it is looking increasingly difficult for this to translate over to increased seaborne trade and although Chinese and India Consumption will likely rise rapidly over the next couple of years , unless there is a rapid change in regional energy imbalances, the growth in shipping requirements is set to hold at a fairly slow pace.
- George Lazaridis - Research Analyst -
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 28 July 14
Q3' 14, SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP GAINED $ 0.08 DAY ON DAY AND $ 0.68 WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q3’ 2014 increased by just US$ 0.08 day on day and US$ 0.68 week on week. The swap was lost U ...
Monday, 28 July 14
S. KOREA'S KOSPO SEEKS 148K T OF 4700 NAR COAL
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co Ltd (KOSPO) is seeking 148,000 tonnes of 4,700 kcal/kg NCV steaming coal for shipment between October to Nove ...
Monday, 28 July 14
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP SLIGHTLY UP WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: Coal price falling is continues as the impact oversupply and lower demand. The swap for Q3, Q4 and Q1 2015 showing slight improvement ...
Sunday, 27 July 14
RAMADAN HOLIDAYS IN INDONESIA PUTTING PRESSURE ON CHARTER RATES FROM INDONESIA - VISTAAR INDIA
COALspot.com: The freight rates were almost steady as very slight improvement in BDI by about 1 pct. The BDI was at 739 points after improvin ...
Saturday, 26 July 14
COAL MINING COMPANIES CLOSED TEMPORARILY - THE JAKARTA POST
The Sarolangun regency administration in Jambi has suspended the operations of 10 coal mining companies in line with a circular issued by Regent Ce ...
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- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
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