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Tuesday, 08 July 14
ENERGY IN THE MIX - INTERMODAL SHIPBROKERS
 With the Tanker freight market having showed much promise this year compared to the performance that had been noted during the previous five, it is interesting to take on a review and outlook of the energy market as a whole. With the Developing nations having played a catch up gain during most of the 2000’s and having been found in a more advantageous position in terms of their continued economic development after the financial crisis of 2008, a considerable weight has been placed on these economies to drive demand forward for most of the energy commodities such as crude oil, coal and natural gas which play an integral part in shipping. Whilst most regions such as North America and Europe, which historically held the lions share for consumption of energy, have been holding steady in their requirements the Astronomical growth in demand from the Asia Pacific region has been the main source of demand growth for much more than a decade now.
China has been the main reason for those, with a key part having been played in the past by Japan and North Korea as well and India now quickly stepping up to take up it’s as a main contender. As these economies went through their stages of economic development, it was well known that an exponential increase in energy consumption would be one of the main byproducts of this. However, with time another pattern has slowly started to emerge.
Despite the rapid growth of energy consumption per capita, the growing worries regarding sources of energy and the sustainability and “cleanness” of our energy consumption has pushed for an ever more efficient and innovative mix of energy consumption, in turn driving for an ever slower growth of energy demand compared to the average GDP growth of the global economy. As pointed out earlier this year by the BP in its Energy outlook report, the amount of energy required per unit of GDP is expected to decline by 1.9% per year over the next 20 years while this figure is more than double the decline rate that was noted in the past decade. This means that we are slowly moving to a higher independence from energy, requiring less input to achieve an ever higher economic output. This could even prove to be an underestimate as typically energy plays a more primal role at the early stages of economic development and once both China and India (the current mammoths of global economic growth) get past this stage, they will likely shift their needs respectively causing a further slowdown in energy consumption per GDP.
A second point which will prove to be of more vital importance, though the trend seems to be moving at a slower pace, is how the world economy as a whole is slowly moving away from fossil fuels towards renewable sources of energy, with the latter expected to take a further 5% from the energy mix within the next 20 years. This has its significance on the shipping industry, as its fossil fuels that are transported by sea and they also take up a considerable portion of world seaborne trade.
Further to this we have seen a rapid shift amongst the preference of fossil fuels within the energy consumption mix. Oil has continued its rapid decline is close to losing its dominant position as the primary source of energy, while Coal has made considerable leaps over the past decade with natural gas following close behind. This has been evident within trade as well as the dry bulk market has significantly benefited from the growing importance of coal while the tanker market has been struggling to see an equal amount of growth in demand even before the crisis. This has followed through with an increasing amount of innovation in oil exploration such as that of tight oil and shale gas. This has been one of the important factors why we have seen a shift in trade with the U.S. decreasing its Crude oil imports last year by almost 40 million tonnes, while it was mainly thanks to China and India which in-creased theirs by 11 and 13 million tonnes respectively which helped cover much of this gap and provide the tanker market with some support.
Going forward, it is increasingly difficult to see any support from the market fundamentals that could provide a justification to a fast paced increase in tanker tonnage. Tonne miles are running shorter and shorter and although the demand for the commodity is there it seems that there isn’t much room for further growth in the fleet. The big promise that was West Africa in helping create further tonne-miles will likely be outshined by the slowly increasing production from East and Southern Africa. The Middle East still holds its top podium position with regards to trade exports and is situated fairly close to both China and India when compared to the distance VLs had to take to go around the Cape to get to the U.S. At the same time we expect more pipeline deals with the Far East to be struck by the other main exporter which is Russia.
In conclusion, there may well be an optimistic growth in demand for energy commodities such as crude oil, however it is looking increasingly difficult for this to translate over to increased seaborne trade and although Chinese and India Consumption will likely rise rapidly over the next couple of years , unless there is a rapid change in regional energy imbalances, the growth in shipping requirements is set to hold at a fairly slow pace.
- George Lazaridis - Research Analyst -
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 06 August 14
CAPES: BUSINESS INTEREST REMAINS SOFT; CURRENTLY NO SIGNS OF IMPROVEMENT - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: Despite the considerable pressure witnessed in the freight market for most of the size segments, the Dry Bulk Index was able to note ...
Wednesday, 06 August 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
Recent reports that Indonesia’s ban on exports of metal ore concentrates was lifted for the first time in six months for two of its biggest m ...
Wednesday, 06 August 14
SGX SUCCESSFULLY LAUNCHED NEW SGX COAL PRODUCTS
COALspot.com: Singapore Exchange (‘SGX’) has announced that, the exchange has successfully launched its new Coking and Thermal Coal pro ...
Monday, 04 August 14
ANNUAL SECOND HALF SURGE IN BRAZILIAN IRON ORE EXPORTS ABOUT TO BEGIN - JEFFREY LANDSBERG
COALspot.com: Great strength in the capesize market has all along been set to occur during the second half of this year, as that is when Brazilian ...
Monday, 04 August 14
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP INCHES UP DESPITE LOW DEMAND
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q4’ 2014 increased US$ 0.15 day on day and US$ 0.13 per mt week on week. But, the swap was lo ...
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- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- MS Steel International - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
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