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Wednesday, 21 May 14
SHIPPING: MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
 The recent revision by the OECD of its global growth forecast has sparked a debate as to the potential outcome these new figures will have on seaborne trade. The main concern has been the slower expansion of China and other emerging markets. These markets have been the prime movers of trade over the past decade and as we witnessed over the past months, things are starting to become a tighter in terms of activity of bulk commodities.
The most important factor has been the crackdown on lending by the Chinese, which in turn prompted many organizations to revise their forecasts on Chinese GDP this year from a previous prediction of 8.2 percent, down to 7.4 percent. At the same time, many are confident that should there be a sharp slowdown in economic activity, the People’s Bank of China will step in and ease some of its monetary policies. Nevertheless, we have already seen these lending restrictions take effect on certain trades, with even difficulties in issuing letters of credit by some traders cutting down their import volumes.
The dry bulk market has felt the main brunt of these new trends, with the spring season being more limited in cargoes than usual and rates having taken a sharp turn for the worst through most of the past months. This has caused many to revise their ideas as to the overall freight market performance for 2014 and has even brought a halt in the previously peaking SnP activity, pushing for a correction in asset prices. Early May has seen an average of 3% drop in dry bulk asset prices compared to where they stood at the end of April and as many potential buyers are waiting for further corrections, this downturn could easily continue at least up until the first half of the summer.
It’s not all bad news however, as things have started to look brighter for several of the OECD countries, with both Europe and the U.S. seeing an increase in their respective growth forecasts. For the latter, many are expecting an improvement over the second half of the year, as the ample cash flow and improved demand should eventually boost their imports significantly. These are more likely to effect the tanker and more importantly container markets and should give both these a boost. It doesn’t just stop there though.
There is still ample seaborne trade to be seen this year and as the fleet growth has now been limited, shipping markets should be able to perform better then what they had 2-3 years back. In the dry bulk market we have seen 240 new buildings delivered up until now, while from the remaining 584 vessels scheduled for 2014, a significant number are likely to either be delayed or even cancelled.
It is important to note here that even during 2013 and while the market was on a more optimistic tone, the combined slippage and cancellation rate was 36.5%, while during 2014 58 new buildings have already either been re-scheduled for post 2014 or cancelled. Similarly, in the Tanker sector deliveries for this year are mild in contrast to past years. What’s more is that the Tanker sector also holds much better trade prospects for the remainder of the year and this could lead to a better year in terms of earnings.
In conclusion, all this could possibly see for a higher investment interest especially come September were we typically start to see a firmer freight market in the Dry Bulk, Tanker and Container markets. It looks as now it’s a bit of a “wait and see” game and as the clouds of uncertainty clear out we should end up with a clearer picture as to where the market is going.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 05 May 14
SUB BIT-FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS LOST GROUND LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q3’ 2014 lost on day, week and on month according to AsiaClear OTC coal swap's reports ...
Monday, 05 May 14
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP FOR AVERAGE Q3 14 DELIVERIES: LOST 0.82% M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q3 14 deliveries lost 0.82 percent month on month and closed at US$ 75.20 per mt as o ...
Sunday, 04 May 14
INDONESIA TO INDIA FREIGHT RATES ARE SHOWING POSITIVE TREND
COALspot.com: The freight market is seems to be some recovery as cape index has increased by 7.84 pct week on week. Cape index closed at 1829 po ...
Friday, 02 May 14
ADARO ENERGY STARTS YEAR 2014 WELL DESPITE CURRENT MARKET CONDITIONS
COALspot.com: Adaro Energy, the second largest Indonesian coal miner's revenue increased 14% to US$ 845 million due to higher sales volume, ...
Friday, 02 May 14
US WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION RELATIVELY FLAT AT -0.1%, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 19.0 million short tons (mmst) of coal i ...
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- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
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