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Wednesday, 21 May 14
SHIPPING: MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
 The recent revision by the OECD of its global growth forecast has sparked a debate as to the potential outcome these new figures will have on seaborne trade. The main concern has been the slower expansion of China and other emerging markets. These markets have been the prime movers of trade over the past decade and as we witnessed over the past months, things are starting to become a tighter in terms of activity of bulk commodities.
The most important factor has been the crackdown on lending by the Chinese, which in turn prompted many organizations to revise their forecasts on Chinese GDP this year from a previous prediction of 8.2 percent, down to 7.4 percent. At the same time, many are confident that should there be a sharp slowdown in economic activity, the People’s Bank of China will step in and ease some of its monetary policies. Nevertheless, we have already seen these lending restrictions take effect on certain trades, with even difficulties in issuing letters of credit by some traders cutting down their import volumes.
The dry bulk market has felt the main brunt of these new trends, with the spring season being more limited in cargoes than usual and rates having taken a sharp turn for the worst through most of the past months. This has caused many to revise their ideas as to the overall freight market performance for 2014 and has even brought a halt in the previously peaking SnP activity, pushing for a correction in asset prices. Early May has seen an average of 3% drop in dry bulk asset prices compared to where they stood at the end of April and as many potential buyers are waiting for further corrections, this downturn could easily continue at least up until the first half of the summer.
It’s not all bad news however, as things have started to look brighter for several of the OECD countries, with both Europe and the U.S. seeing an increase in their respective growth forecasts. For the latter, many are expecting an improvement over the second half of the year, as the ample cash flow and improved demand should eventually boost their imports significantly. These are more likely to effect the tanker and more importantly container markets and should give both these a boost. It doesn’t just stop there though.
There is still ample seaborne trade to be seen this year and as the fleet growth has now been limited, shipping markets should be able to perform better then what they had 2-3 years back. In the dry bulk market we have seen 240 new buildings delivered up until now, while from the remaining 584 vessels scheduled for 2014, a significant number are likely to either be delayed or even cancelled.
It is important to note here that even during 2013 and while the market was on a more optimistic tone, the combined slippage and cancellation rate was 36.5%, while during 2014 58 new buildings have already either been re-scheduled for post 2014 or cancelled. Similarly, in the Tanker sector deliveries for this year are mild in contrast to past years. What’s more is that the Tanker sector also holds much better trade prospects for the remainder of the year and this could lead to a better year in terms of earnings.
In conclusion, all this could possibly see for a higher investment interest especially come September were we typically start to see a firmer freight market in the Dry Bulk, Tanker and Container markets. It looks as now it’s a bit of a “wait and see” game and as the clouds of uncertainty clear out we should end up with a clearer picture as to where the market is going.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 29 April 14
NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 3.03 MILLION TONS WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: In the week ended 07:00 hours 28 April 2014, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensl ...
Tuesday, 29 April 14
Q2 API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP LOST 0.29% MONTH ON MONTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q2 14 deliveries lost 0.29 percent month on month and closed at US$ 75.43 per mt as o ...
Monday, 28 April 14
CHINA LIKELY TO FALL SHORT OF NUCLEAR POWER TARGETS AT 175GW OF CAPACITY BY 2030 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Coal will remain dominant supply at 64% of power mix
Wood Mackenzie forecasts that China will not meet its environmentally-driven, government ...
Sunday, 27 April 14
INDONESIA TO INDIA FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE STEADY NEXT WEEK
COALspot.com: The freight market seems to have bottomed out and saw some marginal gains in all segments, said Capt. Reddy of Vistaar Shipping In ...
Friday, 25 April 14
US PRODUCED APPROXIMATELY 19 MILLION SHORT TONS OF COAL IN A WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 19.0 million short tons (mmst) of coal i ...
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- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Planning Commission, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Coal Association
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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