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Wednesday, 21 May 14
SHIPPING: MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
 The recent revision by the OECD of its global growth forecast has sparked a debate as to the potential outcome these new figures will have on seaborne trade. The main concern has been the slower expansion of China and other emerging markets. These markets have been the prime movers of trade over the past decade and as we witnessed over the past months, things are starting to become a tighter in terms of activity of bulk commodities.
The most important factor has been the crackdown on lending by the Chinese, which in turn prompted many organizations to revise their forecasts on Chinese GDP this year from a previous prediction of 8.2 percent, down to 7.4 percent. At the same time, many are confident that should there be a sharp slowdown in economic activity, the People’s Bank of China will step in and ease some of its monetary policies. Nevertheless, we have already seen these lending restrictions take effect on certain trades, with even difficulties in issuing letters of credit by some traders cutting down their import volumes.
The dry bulk market has felt the main brunt of these new trends, with the spring season being more limited in cargoes than usual and rates having taken a sharp turn for the worst through most of the past months. This has caused many to revise their ideas as to the overall freight market performance for 2014 and has even brought a halt in the previously peaking SnP activity, pushing for a correction in asset prices. Early May has seen an average of 3% drop in dry bulk asset prices compared to where they stood at the end of April and as many potential buyers are waiting for further corrections, this downturn could easily continue at least up until the first half of the summer.
It’s not all bad news however, as things have started to look brighter for several of the OECD countries, with both Europe and the U.S. seeing an increase in their respective growth forecasts. For the latter, many are expecting an improvement over the second half of the year, as the ample cash flow and improved demand should eventually boost their imports significantly. These are more likely to effect the tanker and more importantly container markets and should give both these a boost. It doesn’t just stop there though.
There is still ample seaborne trade to be seen this year and as the fleet growth has now been limited, shipping markets should be able to perform better then what they had 2-3 years back. In the dry bulk market we have seen 240 new buildings delivered up until now, while from the remaining 584 vessels scheduled for 2014, a significant number are likely to either be delayed or even cancelled.
It is important to note here that even during 2013 and while the market was on a more optimistic tone, the combined slippage and cancellation rate was 36.5%, while during 2014 58 new buildings have already either been re-scheduled for post 2014 or cancelled. Similarly, in the Tanker sector deliveries for this year are mild in contrast to past years. What’s more is that the Tanker sector also holds much better trade prospects for the remainder of the year and this could lead to a better year in terms of earnings.
In conclusion, all this could possibly see for a higher investment interest especially come September were we typically start to see a firmer freight market in the Dry Bulk, Tanker and Container markets. It looks as now it’s a bit of a “wait and see” game and as the clouds of uncertainty clear out we should end up with a clearer picture as to where the market is going.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 02 May 14
DRY BULK MARKET SHOWING SIGNS OF COMEBACK - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market which has been hovering below the 1,000-point market (BDI) during the past couple of weeks, could be exhibiting signs of a s ...
Thursday, 01 May 14
INDONESIA EXPORT BAN POINTS TO QUESTIONS OVER CHINA'S LONG-TERM BAUXITE SUPPLY - WOOD MACKENZIE
China’s Bauxite demand forecast to reach 240 million tonnes by 2030
In light of the Indonesian mineral ore ban that came into force o ...
Thursday, 01 May 14
DRY BULK MARKET STILL REELING UNDER PRESSURE FROM VARIOUS FACTORS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market's revival is still overdue, as the industry's benchmark, the BDI is still lagging below the 1,000-point mark. In fac ...
Wednesday, 30 April 14
FREIGHT MARKET FOR DRY BULKERS STILL REMAINS WEAK - INTERMODAL
One week after the Easter holiday and the celebration for the resurrection of Christ, everybody expected to see a similar sign of a revival in t ...
Tuesday, 29 April 14
Q4 SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAP CLOSED US$ 1.07 HIGHER COMPARED TO Q2 DELIVERY PRICE
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q2’ 2014 gain on month and on week according to AsiaClear OTC coal swap's reports rele ...
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- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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