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Wednesday, 21 May 14
SHIPPING: MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
The recent revision by the OECD of its global growth forecast has sparked a debate as to the potential outcome these new figures will have on seaborne trade. The main concern has been the slower expansion of China and other emerging markets. These markets have been the prime movers of trade over the past decade and as we witnessed over the past months, things are starting to become a tighter in terms of activity of bulk commodities.
The most important factor has been the crackdown on lending by the Chinese, which in turn prompted many organizations to revise their forecasts on Chinese GDP this year from a previous prediction of 8.2 percent, down to 7.4 percent. At the same time, many are confident that should there be a sharp slowdown in economic activity, the People’s Bank of China will step in and ease some of its monetary policies. Nevertheless, we have already seen these lending restrictions take effect on certain trades, with even difficulties in issuing letters of credit by some traders cutting down their import volumes.
The dry bulk market has felt the main brunt of these new trends, with the spring season being more limited in cargoes than usual and rates having taken a sharp turn for the worst through most of the past months. This has caused many to revise their ideas as to the overall freight market performance for 2014 and has even brought a halt in the previously peaking SnP activity, pushing for a correction in asset prices. Early May has seen an average of 3% drop in dry bulk asset prices compared to where they stood at the end of April and as many potential buyers are waiting for further corrections, this downturn could easily continue at least up until the first half of the summer.
It’s not all bad news however, as things have started to look brighter for several of the OECD countries, with both Europe and the U.S. seeing an increase in their respective growth forecasts. For the latter, many are expecting an improvement over the second half of the year, as the ample cash flow and improved demand should eventually boost their imports significantly. These are more likely to effect the tanker and more importantly container markets and should give both these a boost. It doesn’t just stop there though.
There is still ample seaborne trade to be seen this year and as the fleet growth has now been limited, shipping markets should be able to perform better then what they had 2-3 years back. In the dry bulk market we have seen 240 new buildings delivered up until now, while from the remaining 584 vessels scheduled for 2014, a significant number are likely to either be delayed or even cancelled.
It is important to note here that even during 2013 and while the market was on a more optimistic tone, the combined slippage and cancellation rate was 36.5%, while during 2014 58 new buildings have already either been re-scheduled for post 2014 or cancelled. Similarly, in the Tanker sector deliveries for this year are mild in contrast to past years. What’s more is that the Tanker sector also holds much better trade prospects for the remainder of the year and this could lead to a better year in terms of earnings.
In conclusion, all this could possibly see for a higher investment interest especially come September were we typically start to see a firmer freight market in the Dry Bulk, Tanker and Container markets. It looks as now it’s a bit of a “wait and see” game and as the clouds of uncertainty clear out we should end up with a clearer picture as to where the market is going.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 12 May 14
DRY BULK MARKET IS STILL STRUGGLING TO FIND FIRM FOOTING
COALspot.com: The freight market continued to be weak and the BDI closed slightly lower at 997 points or fell 1.96 pct week on week. The cape in ...
Friday, 09 May 14
RBCT SHIPPED 5.4 MMT OF COAL IN APRIL
COALspot.com: South Africa's Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT) the single largest coal export terminal in the world, shipped 5.45 million to ...
Friday, 09 May 14
DRY BULK MARKET: BANKRUPTCY TONNAGE UNLEASHED
Drewry’s latest Dry Bulk Forecaster saw freight rates on most routes declined in 2014’s first quarter as the previous quarter’ ...
Friday, 09 May 14
UNITED STATES COAL PRODUCTION SLIGHTLY SLIDES TO 82.4 MMST IN APRIL
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 18.8 million short tons (mmst) of coal i ...
Thursday, 08 May 14
'TRIAL BY MEDIA, TRIAL BY LAW' - A REPORT FROM TRACK 1 OF BIMCO'S ANNUAL CONFERENCE DUBAI 2014
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Aiming to bring a very different type of event into their annual conference, BIMCO presented ‘Double Jeopardy &n ...
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- MS Steel International - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Australian Coal Association
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
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