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Wednesday, 21 May 14
SHIPPING: MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
 The recent revision by the OECD of its global growth forecast has sparked a debate as to the potential outcome these new figures will have on seaborne trade. The main concern has been the slower expansion of China and other emerging markets. These markets have been the prime movers of trade over the past decade and as we witnessed over the past months, things are starting to become a tighter in terms of activity of bulk commodities.
The most important factor has been the crackdown on lending by the Chinese, which in turn prompted many organizations to revise their forecasts on Chinese GDP this year from a previous prediction of 8.2 percent, down to 7.4 percent. At the same time, many are confident that should there be a sharp slowdown in economic activity, the People’s Bank of China will step in and ease some of its monetary policies. Nevertheless, we have already seen these lending restrictions take effect on certain trades, with even difficulties in issuing letters of credit by some traders cutting down their import volumes.
The dry bulk market has felt the main brunt of these new trends, with the spring season being more limited in cargoes than usual and rates having taken a sharp turn for the worst through most of the past months. This has caused many to revise their ideas as to the overall freight market performance for 2014 and has even brought a halt in the previously peaking SnP activity, pushing for a correction in asset prices. Early May has seen an average of 3% drop in dry bulk asset prices compared to where they stood at the end of April and as many potential buyers are waiting for further corrections, this downturn could easily continue at least up until the first half of the summer.
It’s not all bad news however, as things have started to look brighter for several of the OECD countries, with both Europe and the U.S. seeing an increase in their respective growth forecasts. For the latter, many are expecting an improvement over the second half of the year, as the ample cash flow and improved demand should eventually boost their imports significantly. These are more likely to effect the tanker and more importantly container markets and should give both these a boost. It doesn’t just stop there though.
There is still ample seaborne trade to be seen this year and as the fleet growth has now been limited, shipping markets should be able to perform better then what they had 2-3 years back. In the dry bulk market we have seen 240 new buildings delivered up until now, while from the remaining 584 vessels scheduled for 2014, a significant number are likely to either be delayed or even cancelled.
It is important to note here that even during 2013 and while the market was on a more optimistic tone, the combined slippage and cancellation rate was 36.5%, while during 2014 58 new buildings have already either been re-scheduled for post 2014 or cancelled. Similarly, in the Tanker sector deliveries for this year are mild in contrast to past years. What’s more is that the Tanker sector also holds much better trade prospects for the remainder of the year and this could lead to a better year in terms of earnings.
In conclusion, all this could possibly see for a higher investment interest especially come September were we typically start to see a firmer freight market in the Dry Bulk, Tanker and Container markets. It looks as now it’s a bit of a “wait and see” game and as the clouds of uncertainty clear out we should end up with a clearer picture as to where the market is going.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 08 May 14
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE IN MAY CRASHES THROUGH $74
COALspot.com - The Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources of Indonesia has revised down again the coal bench mark price by US$ 1.21 / MT to ...
Wednesday, 07 May 14
THE DRY BULK MARKET HAS NOTED ANOTHER WEEKLY POSITIVE GAIN
Chartering (Wet: Softer- / Dry: Stable+)
The Dry Bulk market has noted another weekly positive gain, driven by the Capesize segment, but we ne ...
Wednesday, 07 May 14
SGX ENHANCES ITS COMMODITIES PRODUCT OFFERING
COALspot.com: SGX is building up its bulk commodity product offerings with 9 more derivative contracts over the next 2 months, subject to regula ...
Tuesday, 06 May 14
NEWCASTLE COAL EXPORT SLIPS 7.92% WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: In the week ended 07:00 hours 5 May 2014, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland ...
Monday, 05 May 14
HUANENG CLEAN ENERGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE HAS CONFIRMED TO SPEAK AT CCF2014
Press Release: Produced by CDMC Events, The 13th Clean Coal Forum 2014 will be held on June 12,13, 2014 in Beijing, China. We are glad to invite ...
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- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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