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Wednesday, 21 May 14
SHIPPING: MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
The recent revision by the OECD of its global growth forecast has sparked a debate as to the potential outcome these new figures will have on seaborne trade. The main concern has been the slower expansion of China and other emerging markets. These markets have been the prime movers of trade over the past decade and as we witnessed over the past months, things are starting to become a tighter in terms of activity of bulk commodities.
The most important factor has been the crackdown on lending by the Chinese, which in turn prompted many organizations to revise their forecasts on Chinese GDP this year from a previous prediction of 8.2 percent, down to 7.4 percent. At the same time, many are confident that should there be a sharp slowdown in economic activity, the People’s Bank of China will step in and ease some of its monetary policies. Nevertheless, we have already seen these lending restrictions take effect on certain trades, with even difficulties in issuing letters of credit by some traders cutting down their import volumes.
The dry bulk market has felt the main brunt of these new trends, with the spring season being more limited in cargoes than usual and rates having taken a sharp turn for the worst through most of the past months. This has caused many to revise their ideas as to the overall freight market performance for 2014 and has even brought a halt in the previously peaking SnP activity, pushing for a correction in asset prices. Early May has seen an average of 3% drop in dry bulk asset prices compared to where they stood at the end of April and as many potential buyers are waiting for further corrections, this downturn could easily continue at least up until the first half of the summer.
It’s not all bad news however, as things have started to look brighter for several of the OECD countries, with both Europe and the U.S. seeing an increase in their respective growth forecasts. For the latter, many are expecting an improvement over the second half of the year, as the ample cash flow and improved demand should eventually boost their imports significantly. These are more likely to effect the tanker and more importantly container markets and should give both these a boost. It doesn’t just stop there though.
There is still ample seaborne trade to be seen this year and as the fleet growth has now been limited, shipping markets should be able to perform better then what they had 2-3 years back. In the dry bulk market we have seen 240 new buildings delivered up until now, while from the remaining 584 vessels scheduled for 2014, a significant number are likely to either be delayed or even cancelled.
It is important to note here that even during 2013 and while the market was on a more optimistic tone, the combined slippage and cancellation rate was 36.5%, while during 2014 58 new buildings have already either been re-scheduled for post 2014 or cancelled. Similarly, in the Tanker sector deliveries for this year are mild in contrast to past years. What’s more is that the Tanker sector also holds much better trade prospects for the remainder of the year and this could lead to a better year in terms of earnings.
In conclusion, all this could possibly see for a higher investment interest especially come September were we typically start to see a firmer freight market in the Dry Bulk, Tanker and Container markets. It looks as now it’s a bit of a “wait and see” game and as the clouds of uncertainty clear out we should end up with a clearer picture as to where the market is going.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 14 May 14
COAL PRICES IN CHINA HAVE DROPPED TO THEIR LOWEST LEVELS SINCE END-2008
COALspot.com: Coal prices in China have dropped to their lowest levels since end-2008, Fitch says in its latest rating report on one of the coal ...
Wednesday, 14 May 14
ALMOST THROUGH THE HALF OF THE YEAR, THE DRY BULK INDEX SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKNESS; CREATING TO BOTH EXISTING SHIP OWNERS AND POTENTIAL INVESTORS A LOT OF INSECURITY - PANOS MAKRINOS
Almost through the half of the year, the overall shipping market and more specifically the Dry Bulk Index show signs of weakness, creating to bo ...
Tuesday, 13 May 14
NPC COAL EXPORT VOLUMES PLUNGE TO 2.48 MMT WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: In the week ended 07:00 hours 12 May 2014, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Quee ...
Tuesday, 13 May 14
YET ANOTHER POSIDONIA EXHIBITION IS ON ITS WAY - INTERMODAL
With less than a month to go before another Posidonia exhibition starts and all the parties and celebrations get under way we thought that it wo ...
Monday, 12 May 14
TAIPOWER TO IMPORT AROUND 1 MMT OF SUB-BITUMINOUS COAL DURING AUGUST 2014 THROUGH NOVEMBER 2014
COALspot.com - Taiwan Power Company intends to procure 1.050 million tons of sub-bituminous coal for Taipower thermal power plant through open t ...
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- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Planning Commission, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PTC India Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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