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Wednesday, 21 May 14
SHIPPING: MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
 The recent revision by the OECD of its global growth forecast has sparked a debate as to the potential outcome these new figures will have on seaborne trade. The main concern has been the slower expansion of China and other emerging markets. These markets have been the prime movers of trade over the past decade and as we witnessed over the past months, things are starting to become a tighter in terms of activity of bulk commodities.
The most important factor has been the crackdown on lending by the Chinese, which in turn prompted many organizations to revise their forecasts on Chinese GDP this year from a previous prediction of 8.2 percent, down to 7.4 percent. At the same time, many are confident that should there be a sharp slowdown in economic activity, the People’s Bank of China will step in and ease some of its monetary policies. Nevertheless, we have already seen these lending restrictions take effect on certain trades, with even difficulties in issuing letters of credit by some traders cutting down their import volumes.
The dry bulk market has felt the main brunt of these new trends, with the spring season being more limited in cargoes than usual and rates having taken a sharp turn for the worst through most of the past months. This has caused many to revise their ideas as to the overall freight market performance for 2014 and has even brought a halt in the previously peaking SnP activity, pushing for a correction in asset prices. Early May has seen an average of 3% drop in dry bulk asset prices compared to where they stood at the end of April and as many potential buyers are waiting for further corrections, this downturn could easily continue at least up until the first half of the summer.
It’s not all bad news however, as things have started to look brighter for several of the OECD countries, with both Europe and the U.S. seeing an increase in their respective growth forecasts. For the latter, many are expecting an improvement over the second half of the year, as the ample cash flow and improved demand should eventually boost their imports significantly. These are more likely to effect the tanker and more importantly container markets and should give both these a boost. It doesn’t just stop there though.
There is still ample seaborne trade to be seen this year and as the fleet growth has now been limited, shipping markets should be able to perform better then what they had 2-3 years back. In the dry bulk market we have seen 240 new buildings delivered up until now, while from the remaining 584 vessels scheduled for 2014, a significant number are likely to either be delayed or even cancelled.
It is important to note here that even during 2013 and while the market was on a more optimistic tone, the combined slippage and cancellation rate was 36.5%, while during 2014 58 new buildings have already either been re-scheduled for post 2014 or cancelled. Similarly, in the Tanker sector deliveries for this year are mild in contrast to past years. What’s more is that the Tanker sector also holds much better trade prospects for the remainder of the year and this could lead to a better year in terms of earnings.
In conclusion, all this could possibly see for a higher investment interest especially come September were we typically start to see a firmer freight market in the Dry Bulk, Tanker and Container markets. It looks as now it’s a bit of a “wait and see” game and as the clouds of uncertainty clear out we should end up with a clearer picture as to where the market is going.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 18 May 14
FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE FIRM NEXT WEEK
COALspot.com: The freight market was steady with the BDI was closed slightly higher at 1027 points or up 3.00 pct week on week.
The Cape ...
Friday, 16 May 14
KOMIPO IS LOOKING FOR 60K MT OF LOW VOLATILE BITUMINOUS COAL
COALspot.com : Korea Midland Power Co., Ltd. has invited bids through International open bidding for 60,000 Metric Tons (MT) of low volatile bitumi ...
Friday, 16 May 14
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TOTALED APPROXIMATELY 18.9 MMST
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 18.9 million short tons (mmst) of coal i ...
Thursday, 15 May 14
PANAMAX : SHORT PERIOD UP TO ONE YEAR REPORTED IN THE 12.000-12.500 RANGE - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
The Supra and handy market seems to be affected by the recent holidays in Singapore which still relatively quiet. There are some Indo / ...
Thursday, 15 May 14
USA COAL CONFERENCE
Press Release: IHS Inc. (NYSE: IHS), the leading global source of information and analysis, will host the Coal USA Conference, June 18-20, 2014, ...
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- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhatia International Limited - India
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