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Wednesday, 21 May 14
SHIPPING: MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
 The recent revision by the OECD of its global growth forecast has sparked a debate as to the potential outcome these new figures will have on seaborne trade. The main concern has been the slower expansion of China and other emerging markets. These markets have been the prime movers of trade over the past decade and as we witnessed over the past months, things are starting to become a tighter in terms of activity of bulk commodities.
The most important factor has been the crackdown on lending by the Chinese, which in turn prompted many organizations to revise their forecasts on Chinese GDP this year from a previous prediction of 8.2 percent, down to 7.4 percent. At the same time, many are confident that should there be a sharp slowdown in economic activity, the People’s Bank of China will step in and ease some of its monetary policies. Nevertheless, we have already seen these lending restrictions take effect on certain trades, with even difficulties in issuing letters of credit by some traders cutting down their import volumes.
The dry bulk market has felt the main brunt of these new trends, with the spring season being more limited in cargoes than usual and rates having taken a sharp turn for the worst through most of the past months. This has caused many to revise their ideas as to the overall freight market performance for 2014 and has even brought a halt in the previously peaking SnP activity, pushing for a correction in asset prices. Early May has seen an average of 3% drop in dry bulk asset prices compared to where they stood at the end of April and as many potential buyers are waiting for further corrections, this downturn could easily continue at least up until the first half of the summer.
It’s not all bad news however, as things have started to look brighter for several of the OECD countries, with both Europe and the U.S. seeing an increase in their respective growth forecasts. For the latter, many are expecting an improvement over the second half of the year, as the ample cash flow and improved demand should eventually boost their imports significantly. These are more likely to effect the tanker and more importantly container markets and should give both these a boost. It doesn’t just stop there though.
There is still ample seaborne trade to be seen this year and as the fleet growth has now been limited, shipping markets should be able to perform better then what they had 2-3 years back. In the dry bulk market we have seen 240 new buildings delivered up until now, while from the remaining 584 vessels scheduled for 2014, a significant number are likely to either be delayed or even cancelled.
It is important to note here that even during 2013 and while the market was on a more optimistic tone, the combined slippage and cancellation rate was 36.5%, while during 2014 58 new buildings have already either been re-scheduled for post 2014 or cancelled. Similarly, in the Tanker sector deliveries for this year are mild in contrast to past years. What’s more is that the Tanker sector also holds much better trade prospects for the remainder of the year and this could lead to a better year in terms of earnings.
In conclusion, all this could possibly see for a higher investment interest especially come September were we typically start to see a firmer freight market in the Dry Bulk, Tanker and Container markets. It looks as now it’s a bit of a “wait and see” game and as the clouds of uncertainty clear out we should end up with a clearer picture as to where the market is going.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 20 May 14
NEWCASTLE'S COAL EXPORT VOLUME UP 39.11 PERCENT WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: In the week ended 07:00 hours 19 May 2014, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland, ...
Tuesday, 20 May 14
DRY BULK MARKET TO IMPROVE OVER THE COURSE OF 2014, BUT OVERSUPPLY STILL AN ISSUE SAYS BIMCO'S CHIEF SHIPPING ANALYST
As a gruelling first quarter edges closer to the end, dry bulk ship owners are looking at an improved second quarter demand, which, coupled with sl ...
Tuesday, 20 May 14
DRY BULK MARKET IS BOUND FOR A RECOVERY CLAIMS PARAGON SHIPPING'S HEAD MICHAEL BODOUROGLOU
The dry bulk market is bound for a recovery in the coming weeks, as the market will be better balanced, said Mr. Michael Bodouroglou, Chairman and ...
Monday, 19 May 14
INDO COAL SWAPS FOR AVERAGE Q3' 2014 DELIVERY LOST ON WEEK AND ON MONTH
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q3’ 2014 lost on week and on month according to AsiaClear OTC coal swap's reports release ...
Monday, 19 May 14
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL LOST 2.49% MONTH ON MONTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q3 14 deliveries lost 2.49 percent month on month and closed at US$ 74.35 per mt as on F ...
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- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
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