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Wednesday, 21 May 14
SHIPPING: MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
 The recent revision by the OECD of its global growth forecast has sparked a debate as to the potential outcome these new figures will have on seaborne trade. The main concern has been the slower expansion of China and other emerging markets. These markets have been the prime movers of trade over the past decade and as we witnessed over the past months, things are starting to become a tighter in terms of activity of bulk commodities.
The most important factor has been the crackdown on lending by the Chinese, which in turn prompted many organizations to revise their forecasts on Chinese GDP this year from a previous prediction of 8.2 percent, down to 7.4 percent. At the same time, many are confident that should there be a sharp slowdown in economic activity, the People’s Bank of China will step in and ease some of its monetary policies. Nevertheless, we have already seen these lending restrictions take effect on certain trades, with even difficulties in issuing letters of credit by some traders cutting down their import volumes.
The dry bulk market has felt the main brunt of these new trends, with the spring season being more limited in cargoes than usual and rates having taken a sharp turn for the worst through most of the past months. This has caused many to revise their ideas as to the overall freight market performance for 2014 and has even brought a halt in the previously peaking SnP activity, pushing for a correction in asset prices. Early May has seen an average of 3% drop in dry bulk asset prices compared to where they stood at the end of April and as many potential buyers are waiting for further corrections, this downturn could easily continue at least up until the first half of the summer.
It’s not all bad news however, as things have started to look brighter for several of the OECD countries, with both Europe and the U.S. seeing an increase in their respective growth forecasts. For the latter, many are expecting an improvement over the second half of the year, as the ample cash flow and improved demand should eventually boost their imports significantly. These are more likely to effect the tanker and more importantly container markets and should give both these a boost. It doesn’t just stop there though.
There is still ample seaborne trade to be seen this year and as the fleet growth has now been limited, shipping markets should be able to perform better then what they had 2-3 years back. In the dry bulk market we have seen 240 new buildings delivered up until now, while from the remaining 584 vessels scheduled for 2014, a significant number are likely to either be delayed or even cancelled.
It is important to note here that even during 2013 and while the market was on a more optimistic tone, the combined slippage and cancellation rate was 36.5%, while during 2014 58 new buildings have already either been re-scheduled for post 2014 or cancelled. Similarly, in the Tanker sector deliveries for this year are mild in contrast to past years. What’s more is that the Tanker sector also holds much better trade prospects for the remainder of the year and this could lead to a better year in terms of earnings.
In conclusion, all this could possibly see for a higher investment interest especially come September were we typically start to see a firmer freight market in the Dry Bulk, Tanker and Container markets. It looks as now it’s a bit of a “wait and see” game and as the clouds of uncertainty clear out we should end up with a clearer picture as to where the market is going.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 20 May 14
NEWCASTLE'S COAL EXPORT VOLUME UP 39.11 PERCENT WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: In the week ended 07:00 hours 19 May 2014, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland, ...
Tuesday, 20 May 14
DRY BULK MARKET TO IMPROVE OVER THE COURSE OF 2014, BUT OVERSUPPLY STILL AN ISSUE SAYS BIMCO'S CHIEF SHIPPING ANALYST
As a gruelling first quarter edges closer to the end, dry bulk ship owners are looking at an improved second quarter demand, which, coupled with sl ...
Tuesday, 20 May 14
DRY BULK MARKET IS BOUND FOR A RECOVERY CLAIMS PARAGON SHIPPING'S HEAD MICHAEL BODOUROGLOU
The dry bulk market is bound for a recovery in the coming weeks, as the market will be better balanced, said Mr. Michael Bodouroglou, Chairman and ...
Monday, 19 May 14
INDO COAL SWAPS FOR AVERAGE Q3' 2014 DELIVERY LOST ON WEEK AND ON MONTH
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q3’ 2014 lost on week and on month according to AsiaClear OTC coal swap's reports release ...
Monday, 19 May 14
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL LOST 2.49% MONTH ON MONTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q3 14 deliveries lost 2.49 percent month on month and closed at US$ 74.35 per mt as on F ...
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- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
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