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Wednesday, 21 May 14
SHIPPING: MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
 The recent revision by the OECD of its global growth forecast has sparked a debate as to the potential outcome these new figures will have on seaborne trade. The main concern has been the slower expansion of China and other emerging markets. These markets have been the prime movers of trade over the past decade and as we witnessed over the past months, things are starting to become a tighter in terms of activity of bulk commodities.
The most important factor has been the crackdown on lending by the Chinese, which in turn prompted many organizations to revise their forecasts on Chinese GDP this year from a previous prediction of 8.2 percent, down to 7.4 percent. At the same time, many are confident that should there be a sharp slowdown in economic activity, the People’s Bank of China will step in and ease some of its monetary policies. Nevertheless, we have already seen these lending restrictions take effect on certain trades, with even difficulties in issuing letters of credit by some traders cutting down their import volumes.
The dry bulk market has felt the main brunt of these new trends, with the spring season being more limited in cargoes than usual and rates having taken a sharp turn for the worst through most of the past months. This has caused many to revise their ideas as to the overall freight market performance for 2014 and has even brought a halt in the previously peaking SnP activity, pushing for a correction in asset prices. Early May has seen an average of 3% drop in dry bulk asset prices compared to where they stood at the end of April and as many potential buyers are waiting for further corrections, this downturn could easily continue at least up until the first half of the summer.
It’s not all bad news however, as things have started to look brighter for several of the OECD countries, with both Europe and the U.S. seeing an increase in their respective growth forecasts. For the latter, many are expecting an improvement over the second half of the year, as the ample cash flow and improved demand should eventually boost their imports significantly. These are more likely to effect the tanker and more importantly container markets and should give both these a boost. It doesn’t just stop there though.
There is still ample seaborne trade to be seen this year and as the fleet growth has now been limited, shipping markets should be able to perform better then what they had 2-3 years back. In the dry bulk market we have seen 240 new buildings delivered up until now, while from the remaining 584 vessels scheduled for 2014, a significant number are likely to either be delayed or even cancelled.
It is important to note here that even during 2013 and while the market was on a more optimistic tone, the combined slippage and cancellation rate was 36.5%, while during 2014 58 new buildings have already either been re-scheduled for post 2014 or cancelled. Similarly, in the Tanker sector deliveries for this year are mild in contrast to past years. What’s more is that the Tanker sector also holds much better trade prospects for the remainder of the year and this could lead to a better year in terms of earnings.
In conclusion, all this could possibly see for a higher investment interest especially come September were we typically start to see a firmer freight market in the Dry Bulk, Tanker and Container markets. It looks as now it’s a bit of a “wait and see” game and as the clouds of uncertainty clear out we should end up with a clearer picture as to where the market is going.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 23 May 14
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION SLIPS 1.8% WEEK ENDED MAY 17, 2014
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 18.6 million short tons (mmst) of coal in a ...
Friday, 23 May 14
DRY BULK NEWBUILDING CANCELLATIONS COULD HELP SUPPORT MARKET IN THE COMING WEEKS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market's demise over the past few months maybe has come as a surprise to many, but analysts and shipbrokers are looking forward to ...
Thursday, 22 May 14
HEAR SUCCESSFUL CASE STUDIES FROM 10 INDEPENDENT UNCONVENTIONAL GAS OPERATORS
Unconventional Gas Asia 2014 will provide a unique opportunity for Asia’s unconventional gas leaders to share their experience and expertise ...
Thursday, 22 May 14
CNPC-GAZPROM DEAL A MEDIUM - TERM POSITIVE FOR CHINA'S GAS SECTOR
Fitch Ratings says a 30-year deal in which Russia's OAO Gazprom (BBB/Negative) will supply gas to China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC; A ...
Thursday, 22 May 14
CAPESIZE : RATES ARE STILL UNDER PRESSURE
Handy
A quiet start into the week in Far East, some fresh Indonesian coal order in the market. For trips within S.E. Asia, Supras are trading aro ...
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- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Australian Coal Association
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PTC India Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The University of Queensland
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- White Energy Company Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Planning Commission, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
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