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Wednesday, 21 May 14
SHIPPING: MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
 The recent revision by the OECD of its global growth forecast has sparked a debate as to the potential outcome these new figures will have on seaborne trade. The main concern has been the slower expansion of China and other emerging markets. These markets have been the prime movers of trade over the past decade and as we witnessed over the past months, things are starting to become a tighter in terms of activity of bulk commodities.
The most important factor has been the crackdown on lending by the Chinese, which in turn prompted many organizations to revise their forecasts on Chinese GDP this year from a previous prediction of 8.2 percent, down to 7.4 percent. At the same time, many are confident that should there be a sharp slowdown in economic activity, the People’s Bank of China will step in and ease some of its monetary policies. Nevertheless, we have already seen these lending restrictions take effect on certain trades, with even difficulties in issuing letters of credit by some traders cutting down their import volumes.
The dry bulk market has felt the main brunt of these new trends, with the spring season being more limited in cargoes than usual and rates having taken a sharp turn for the worst through most of the past months. This has caused many to revise their ideas as to the overall freight market performance for 2014 and has even brought a halt in the previously peaking SnP activity, pushing for a correction in asset prices. Early May has seen an average of 3% drop in dry bulk asset prices compared to where they stood at the end of April and as many potential buyers are waiting for further corrections, this downturn could easily continue at least up until the first half of the summer.
It’s not all bad news however, as things have started to look brighter for several of the OECD countries, with both Europe and the U.S. seeing an increase in their respective growth forecasts. For the latter, many are expecting an improvement over the second half of the year, as the ample cash flow and improved demand should eventually boost their imports significantly. These are more likely to effect the tanker and more importantly container markets and should give both these a boost. It doesn’t just stop there though.
There is still ample seaborne trade to be seen this year and as the fleet growth has now been limited, shipping markets should be able to perform better then what they had 2-3 years back. In the dry bulk market we have seen 240 new buildings delivered up until now, while from the remaining 584 vessels scheduled for 2014, a significant number are likely to either be delayed or even cancelled.
It is important to note here that even during 2013 and while the market was on a more optimistic tone, the combined slippage and cancellation rate was 36.5%, while during 2014 58 new buildings have already either been re-scheduled for post 2014 or cancelled. Similarly, in the Tanker sector deliveries for this year are mild in contrast to past years. What’s more is that the Tanker sector also holds much better trade prospects for the remainder of the year and this could lead to a better year in terms of earnings.
In conclusion, all this could possibly see for a higher investment interest especially come September were we typically start to see a firmer freight market in the Dry Bulk, Tanker and Container markets. It looks as now it’s a bit of a “wait and see” game and as the clouds of uncertainty clear out we should end up with a clearer picture as to where the market is going.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 23 May 14
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION SLIPS 1.8% WEEK ENDED MAY 17, 2014
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 18.6 million short tons (mmst) of coal in a ...
Friday, 23 May 14
DRY BULK NEWBUILDING CANCELLATIONS COULD HELP SUPPORT MARKET IN THE COMING WEEKS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market's demise over the past few months maybe has come as a surprise to many, but analysts and shipbrokers are looking forward to ...
Thursday, 22 May 14
HEAR SUCCESSFUL CASE STUDIES FROM 10 INDEPENDENT UNCONVENTIONAL GAS OPERATORS
Unconventional Gas Asia 2014 will provide a unique opportunity for Asia’s unconventional gas leaders to share their experience and expertise ...
Thursday, 22 May 14
CNPC-GAZPROM DEAL A MEDIUM - TERM POSITIVE FOR CHINA'S GAS SECTOR
Fitch Ratings says a 30-year deal in which Russia's OAO Gazprom (BBB/Negative) will supply gas to China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC; A ...
Thursday, 22 May 14
CAPESIZE : RATES ARE STILL UNDER PRESSURE
Handy
A quiet start into the week in Far East, some fresh Indonesian coal order in the market. For trips within S.E. Asia, Supras are trading aro ...
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- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Australian Coal Association
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- White Energy Company Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Economic Council, Georgia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
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