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Wednesday, 21 May 14
SHIPPING: MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
 The recent revision by the OECD of its global growth forecast has sparked a debate as to the potential outcome these new figures will have on seaborne trade. The main concern has been the slower expansion of China and other emerging markets. These markets have been the prime movers of trade over the past decade and as we witnessed over the past months, things are starting to become a tighter in terms of activity of bulk commodities.
The most important factor has been the crackdown on lending by the Chinese, which in turn prompted many organizations to revise their forecasts on Chinese GDP this year from a previous prediction of 8.2 percent, down to 7.4 percent. At the same time, many are confident that should there be a sharp slowdown in economic activity, the People’s Bank of China will step in and ease some of its monetary policies. Nevertheless, we have already seen these lending restrictions take effect on certain trades, with even difficulties in issuing letters of credit by some traders cutting down their import volumes.
The dry bulk market has felt the main brunt of these new trends, with the spring season being more limited in cargoes than usual and rates having taken a sharp turn for the worst through most of the past months. This has caused many to revise their ideas as to the overall freight market performance for 2014 and has even brought a halt in the previously peaking SnP activity, pushing for a correction in asset prices. Early May has seen an average of 3% drop in dry bulk asset prices compared to where they stood at the end of April and as many potential buyers are waiting for further corrections, this downturn could easily continue at least up until the first half of the summer.
It’s not all bad news however, as things have started to look brighter for several of the OECD countries, with both Europe and the U.S. seeing an increase in their respective growth forecasts. For the latter, many are expecting an improvement over the second half of the year, as the ample cash flow and improved demand should eventually boost their imports significantly. These are more likely to effect the tanker and more importantly container markets and should give both these a boost. It doesn’t just stop there though.
There is still ample seaborne trade to be seen this year and as the fleet growth has now been limited, shipping markets should be able to perform better then what they had 2-3 years back. In the dry bulk market we have seen 240 new buildings delivered up until now, while from the remaining 584 vessels scheduled for 2014, a significant number are likely to either be delayed or even cancelled.
It is important to note here that even during 2013 and while the market was on a more optimistic tone, the combined slippage and cancellation rate was 36.5%, while during 2014 58 new buildings have already either been re-scheduled for post 2014 or cancelled. Similarly, in the Tanker sector deliveries for this year are mild in contrast to past years. What’s more is that the Tanker sector also holds much better trade prospects for the remainder of the year and this could lead to a better year in terms of earnings.
In conclusion, all this could possibly see for a higher investment interest especially come September were we typically start to see a firmer freight market in the Dry Bulk, Tanker and Container markets. It looks as now it’s a bit of a “wait and see” game and as the clouds of uncertainty clear out we should end up with a clearer picture as to where the market is going.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 26 May 14
SUB-BIT FOB INDO COAL SWAP Q1' 15 DELIVERIES CLOSED AT US$ 59.40 PER MT
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q3’ 2014 lost on day, week and on month according to AsiaClear OTC coal swap's reports re ...
Monday, 26 May 14
Q3 14 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS LOST 2.24% MONTH ON MONTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q3 14 deliveries lost 2.24 percent month on month and closed at US$ 73.88 per mt as on F ...
Monday, 26 May 14
NEWBUILDING ORDERING ACTIVITY RISES BY 78% IN DWT TONNAGE OVER THE FIRST 4 MONTHS OF THE YEARS, AS OWNERS INVEST$40.5 BN - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Ship owners have plunged into newbuilding orders during the first four months of the year, as overall newbuilding business ended for the first four ...
Sunday, 25 May 14
FREIGHT RATES FROM SOUTH KALIMANTAN TO EAST COAST INDIAN PORTS WERE ASSESSED AT $9.50/MT
COALspot.com: The BDI was closed at 964 points down by 6.13 pct week on week. The Cape Index was lost 172 points or 11.24% week on week and closing ...
Saturday, 24 May 14
DRY BULK MARKET'S RECOVERY IS JUST AROUND THE CORNER SAYS SHIPOWNER - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Despite the weaker than expected market sentiment in the dry bulk market over the course of the past few months, analysts and shipowners alike appe ...
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- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The University of Queensland
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Planning Commission, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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