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Wednesday, 21 May 14
SHIPPING: MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
 The recent revision by the OECD of its global growth forecast has sparked a debate as to the potential outcome these new figures will have on seaborne trade. The main concern has been the slower expansion of China and other emerging markets. These markets have been the prime movers of trade over the past decade and as we witnessed over the past months, things are starting to become a tighter in terms of activity of bulk commodities.
The most important factor has been the crackdown on lending by the Chinese, which in turn prompted many organizations to revise their forecasts on Chinese GDP this year from a previous prediction of 8.2 percent, down to 7.4 percent. At the same time, many are confident that should there be a sharp slowdown in economic activity, the People’s Bank of China will step in and ease some of its monetary policies. Nevertheless, we have already seen these lending restrictions take effect on certain trades, with even difficulties in issuing letters of credit by some traders cutting down their import volumes.
The dry bulk market has felt the main brunt of these new trends, with the spring season being more limited in cargoes than usual and rates having taken a sharp turn for the worst through most of the past months. This has caused many to revise their ideas as to the overall freight market performance for 2014 and has even brought a halt in the previously peaking SnP activity, pushing for a correction in asset prices. Early May has seen an average of 3% drop in dry bulk asset prices compared to where they stood at the end of April and as many potential buyers are waiting for further corrections, this downturn could easily continue at least up until the first half of the summer.
It’s not all bad news however, as things have started to look brighter for several of the OECD countries, with both Europe and the U.S. seeing an increase in their respective growth forecasts. For the latter, many are expecting an improvement over the second half of the year, as the ample cash flow and improved demand should eventually boost their imports significantly. These are more likely to effect the tanker and more importantly container markets and should give both these a boost. It doesn’t just stop there though.
There is still ample seaborne trade to be seen this year and as the fleet growth has now been limited, shipping markets should be able to perform better then what they had 2-3 years back. In the dry bulk market we have seen 240 new buildings delivered up until now, while from the remaining 584 vessels scheduled for 2014, a significant number are likely to either be delayed or even cancelled.
It is important to note here that even during 2013 and while the market was on a more optimistic tone, the combined slippage and cancellation rate was 36.5%, while during 2014 58 new buildings have already either been re-scheduled for post 2014 or cancelled. Similarly, in the Tanker sector deliveries for this year are mild in contrast to past years. What’s more is that the Tanker sector also holds much better trade prospects for the remainder of the year and this could lead to a better year in terms of earnings.
In conclusion, all this could possibly see for a higher investment interest especially come September were we typically start to see a firmer freight market in the Dry Bulk, Tanker and Container markets. It looks as now it’s a bit of a “wait and see” game and as the clouds of uncertainty clear out we should end up with a clearer picture as to where the market is going.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 26 May 14
SUB-BIT FOB INDO COAL SWAP Q1' 15 DELIVERIES CLOSED AT US$ 59.40 PER MT
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q3’ 2014 lost on day, week and on month according to AsiaClear OTC coal swap's reports re ...
Monday, 26 May 14
Q3 14 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS LOST 2.24% MONTH ON MONTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q3 14 deliveries lost 2.24 percent month on month and closed at US$ 73.88 per mt as on F ...
Monday, 26 May 14
NEWBUILDING ORDERING ACTIVITY RISES BY 78% IN DWT TONNAGE OVER THE FIRST 4 MONTHS OF THE YEARS, AS OWNERS INVEST$40.5 BN - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Ship owners have plunged into newbuilding orders during the first four months of the year, as overall newbuilding business ended for the first four ...
Sunday, 25 May 14
FREIGHT RATES FROM SOUTH KALIMANTAN TO EAST COAST INDIAN PORTS WERE ASSESSED AT $9.50/MT
COALspot.com: The BDI was closed at 964 points down by 6.13 pct week on week. The Cape Index was lost 172 points or 11.24% week on week and closing ...
Saturday, 24 May 14
DRY BULK MARKET'S RECOVERY IS JUST AROUND THE CORNER SAYS SHIPOWNER - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Despite the weaker than expected market sentiment in the dry bulk market over the course of the past few months, analysts and shipowners alike appe ...
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- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Australian Coal Association
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The University of Queensland
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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