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Wednesday, 21 May 14
SHIPPING: MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
 The recent revision by the OECD of its global growth forecast has sparked a debate as to the potential outcome these new figures will have on seaborne trade. The main concern has been the slower expansion of China and other emerging markets. These markets have been the prime movers of trade over the past decade and as we witnessed over the past months, things are starting to become a tighter in terms of activity of bulk commodities.
The most important factor has been the crackdown on lending by the Chinese, which in turn prompted many organizations to revise their forecasts on Chinese GDP this year from a previous prediction of 8.2 percent, down to 7.4 percent. At the same time, many are confident that should there be a sharp slowdown in economic activity, the People’s Bank of China will step in and ease some of its monetary policies. Nevertheless, we have already seen these lending restrictions take effect on certain trades, with even difficulties in issuing letters of credit by some traders cutting down their import volumes.
The dry bulk market has felt the main brunt of these new trends, with the spring season being more limited in cargoes than usual and rates having taken a sharp turn for the worst through most of the past months. This has caused many to revise their ideas as to the overall freight market performance for 2014 and has even brought a halt in the previously peaking SnP activity, pushing for a correction in asset prices. Early May has seen an average of 3% drop in dry bulk asset prices compared to where they stood at the end of April and as many potential buyers are waiting for further corrections, this downturn could easily continue at least up until the first half of the summer.
It’s not all bad news however, as things have started to look brighter for several of the OECD countries, with both Europe and the U.S. seeing an increase in their respective growth forecasts. For the latter, many are expecting an improvement over the second half of the year, as the ample cash flow and improved demand should eventually boost their imports significantly. These are more likely to effect the tanker and more importantly container markets and should give both these a boost. It doesn’t just stop there though.
There is still ample seaborne trade to be seen this year and as the fleet growth has now been limited, shipping markets should be able to perform better then what they had 2-3 years back. In the dry bulk market we have seen 240 new buildings delivered up until now, while from the remaining 584 vessels scheduled for 2014, a significant number are likely to either be delayed or even cancelled.
It is important to note here that even during 2013 and while the market was on a more optimistic tone, the combined slippage and cancellation rate was 36.5%, while during 2014 58 new buildings have already either been re-scheduled for post 2014 or cancelled. Similarly, in the Tanker sector deliveries for this year are mild in contrast to past years. What’s more is that the Tanker sector also holds much better trade prospects for the remainder of the year and this could lead to a better year in terms of earnings.
In conclusion, all this could possibly see for a higher investment interest especially come September were we typically start to see a firmer freight market in the Dry Bulk, Tanker and Container markets. It looks as now it’s a bit of a “wait and see” game and as the clouds of uncertainty clear out we should end up with a clearer picture as to where the market is going.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 30 May 14
US COAL PRODUCTION RELATIVELY FLAT WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 18.6 million short tons (mmst) of coal in a ...
Thursday, 29 May 14
PEABODY ENERGY CHAIRMAN RECEIVES WCA AWARD
The World Coal Association has presented Gregory H. Boyce, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Peabody Energy (NYSE: BTU), with the 2014 Chairm ...
Thursday, 29 May 14
HANDY : THE SUPRAS ARE BEING TRADED AROUND 13K FOR SHORTER UPTO 1 YEAR PERIOD
Handy
The week started off with bank holidays in London and very little happening. This trend has continued and we believe it will continue into ...
Wednesday, 28 May 14
THE DRY BULK MARKET REMAINED UNDER PRESSURE - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market remained under pressure during this past week, with all indices pointing down compared to the previous Friday. Th ...
Tuesday, 27 May 14
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 19.13% LESS COAL THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: In the week ended 07:00 hours 26 May 2014, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland, ...
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- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PTC India Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
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