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Wednesday, 21 May 14
SHIPPING: MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
 The recent revision by the OECD of its global growth forecast has sparked a debate as to the potential outcome these new figures will have on seaborne trade. The main concern has been the slower expansion of China and other emerging markets. These markets have been the prime movers of trade over the past decade and as we witnessed over the past months, things are starting to become a tighter in terms of activity of bulk commodities.
The most important factor has been the crackdown on lending by the Chinese, which in turn prompted many organizations to revise their forecasts on Chinese GDP this year from a previous prediction of 8.2 percent, down to 7.4 percent. At the same time, many are confident that should there be a sharp slowdown in economic activity, the People’s Bank of China will step in and ease some of its monetary policies. Nevertheless, we have already seen these lending restrictions take effect on certain trades, with even difficulties in issuing letters of credit by some traders cutting down their import volumes.
The dry bulk market has felt the main brunt of these new trends, with the spring season being more limited in cargoes than usual and rates having taken a sharp turn for the worst through most of the past months. This has caused many to revise their ideas as to the overall freight market performance for 2014 and has even brought a halt in the previously peaking SnP activity, pushing for a correction in asset prices. Early May has seen an average of 3% drop in dry bulk asset prices compared to where they stood at the end of April and as many potential buyers are waiting for further corrections, this downturn could easily continue at least up until the first half of the summer.
It’s not all bad news however, as things have started to look brighter for several of the OECD countries, with both Europe and the U.S. seeing an increase in their respective growth forecasts. For the latter, many are expecting an improvement over the second half of the year, as the ample cash flow and improved demand should eventually boost their imports significantly. These are more likely to effect the tanker and more importantly container markets and should give both these a boost. It doesn’t just stop there though.
There is still ample seaborne trade to be seen this year and as the fleet growth has now been limited, shipping markets should be able to perform better then what they had 2-3 years back. In the dry bulk market we have seen 240 new buildings delivered up until now, while from the remaining 584 vessels scheduled for 2014, a significant number are likely to either be delayed or even cancelled.
It is important to note here that even during 2013 and while the market was on a more optimistic tone, the combined slippage and cancellation rate was 36.5%, while during 2014 58 new buildings have already either been re-scheduled for post 2014 or cancelled. Similarly, in the Tanker sector deliveries for this year are mild in contrast to past years. What’s more is that the Tanker sector also holds much better trade prospects for the remainder of the year and this could lead to a better year in terms of earnings.
In conclusion, all this could possibly see for a higher investment interest especially come September were we typically start to see a firmer freight market in the Dry Bulk, Tanker and Container markets. It looks as now it’s a bit of a “wait and see” game and as the clouds of uncertainty clear out we should end up with a clearer picture as to where the market is going.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 04 June 14
SKULD: DIVERSIFICATION AND A ROBUST BOTTOM LINE
In February, I was delighted to ring in the new policy year with the Skuld team following a solid renewal round and a strong year. 2013 was, in man ...
Monday, 02 June 14
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS LOST GROUND THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q3’ 2014 lost on day, week and on month according to AsiaClear OTC coal swap's reports re ...
Monday, 02 June 14
SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP WAS SHOWING A POSITIVE MOVE IN Q4, INSTEAD OF THIS WEEK'S WEAK TREND
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q3 14 deliveries lost 3.39 percent month on month and closed at US$ 72.65 per mt as on F ...
Sunday, 01 June 14
INDO - INDIA SUPRMAX FREIGHT RATES CONTINUED TO DOWN THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The freight market was soft this past week as all sectors soften particularly Panamax index was lost 129 points or 12.88% week on wee ...
Friday, 30 May 14
CLEAN COAL PROCESSING & CONVERSION ASIA SUMMIT 2014
Clean Coal Processing & Conversion Asia Summit 2014 will be held on Nov 20-21st, 2014 in Jakarta, Indonesia.
With the cooperation of ...
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- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The University of Queensland
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- White Energy Company Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
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