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Wednesday, 14 May 14
ALMOST THROUGH THE HALF OF THE YEAR, THE DRY BULK INDEX SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKNESS; CREATING TO BOTH EXISTING SHIP OWNERS AND POTENTIAL INVESTORS A LOT OF INSECURITY - PANOS MAKRINOS
 Almost through the half of the year, the overall shipping market and more specifically the Dry Bulk Index show signs of weakness, creating to both existing ship owners and potential investors a lot of insecurity for what is in place for the second half of 2014, as well as further disbelief to those voices that inspired by the last quarter of 2013, were calling for a stable market during 2014.
Looking back to the beginning of the year we can say that from the month of February until the time of this writing, with the exception of a small rally, the market has struggled for the greater part, with the BDI returning to below 1,000 points. More specifically, in December last year and while the Index stood above 2,000 points, the overall sentiment was calling for an equally strong market in 2014, which never came.
The market has in fact followed a persistent downward trend until mid-February when we started seeing the first signs of improvement. The latter lasted for about a month, with the BDI peaking for the year within this period but still remaining below 2,000 points, and soon after that the downward trend resumed, bringing us to today.
Seeing the low levels the freight market has been fairing, most would normally expect that second-hand prices would have followed course, but it seems that it took a while before we started seeing the first discounts off last done sales and even the levels at which most vessels come in the market today still don’t reflect the current freight environment. There are in fact cases of modern Handymax to Panamax tonnage where inspection interest remains high allowing owners to hold firm on their asking price, while at the same time there are currently a lot more sales candidates from the Far East.
On the other hand, there are those who are more conservative and therefore unwilling to accept Seller’s ideas. Besides the fact that the current price levels make no sense to them, as long as these subdued freight rates persist, they are also very sceptic when it comes to the number of deliveries set to enter service within the next couple of years, predicting that a renewed overcapacity problem will most probably surface possibly creating another market bottom. Should they be proven right, we will certainly witness another round of softening asset values, both in the second hand and the new building market, especially if scrapping activity remains at the low levels we have been witnessing during the past months and despite those sky high demo prices around.
It is always both risky and difficult to make predictions and nobody could say with certainty what the next 6 months of 2014 hold for the market. And despite the fact that things have been far from rosy so far this year, let’s not forget that the first half of 2013 wasn’t a whole lot different with most predicting further price reductions, which nonetheless never materialized.
In terms of the overcapacity being created, let’s hope that the upcoming lower emissions rules, the Dry Docking for most of the 80’s built ships that will be due soon, as well as scrap subsidies similar to the ones offered in China, could well be some of the reasons that will restrict overcapacity. Will they nonetheless be enough to protect the market from the number of vessels soon to be delivered? It’s anyone’s guess at this point.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 07 April 14
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS GAINED 2.09% M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q2 14 deliveries gained 2.09 percent month on month and closed at US$ 75.68 per ...
Sunday, 06 April 14
THE FREIGHT MARKET KEEPS SLIDING
COALspot.com: The freight market continued to drop this week. The BDI (Baltic Dry Index) is a widely followed metric that reflects the overall r ...
Friday, 04 April 14
UNITED STATES COAL OUTPUT UP 5.4% IN PAST WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 19.9 million short tons (mmst) of coal i ...
Thursday, 03 April 14
PANAMAX SECTOR IS WATCHING A SEVERE DROP IN RATES - FEARNLEYS
Handy
A further weaker sentiment for the Supras as well in both hemispheres this week with oversupply of tonnage being the major headline. Tra ...
Wednesday, 02 April 14
CHINA: ARBITRATION CLAUSES IN BILLS OF LADING UNDER CHINESE LEGAL PRACTICE - SKULD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Successful incorporation of a charterparty arbitration clause into the bills of lading is not a straight forward matte ...
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- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Planning Commission, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- White Energy Company Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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