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Wednesday, 14 May 14
ALMOST THROUGH THE HALF OF THE YEAR, THE DRY BULK INDEX SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKNESS; CREATING TO BOTH EXISTING SHIP OWNERS AND POTENTIAL INVESTORS A LOT OF INSECURITY - PANOS MAKRINOS
 Almost through the half of the year, the overall shipping market and more specifically the Dry Bulk Index show signs of weakness, creating to both existing ship owners and potential investors a lot of insecurity for what is in place for the second half of 2014, as well as further disbelief to those voices that inspired by the last quarter of 2013, were calling for a stable market during 2014.
Looking back to the beginning of the year we can say that from the month of February until the time of this writing, with the exception of a small rally, the market has struggled for the greater part, with the BDI returning to below 1,000 points. More specifically, in December last year and while the Index stood above 2,000 points, the overall sentiment was calling for an equally strong market in 2014, which never came.
The market has in fact followed a persistent downward trend until mid-February when we started seeing the first signs of improvement. The latter lasted for about a month, with the BDI peaking for the year within this period but still remaining below 2,000 points, and soon after that the downward trend resumed, bringing us to today.
Seeing the low levels the freight market has been fairing, most would normally expect that second-hand prices would have followed course, but it seems that it took a while before we started seeing the first discounts off last done sales and even the levels at which most vessels come in the market today still don’t reflect the current freight environment. There are in fact cases of modern Handymax to Panamax tonnage where inspection interest remains high allowing owners to hold firm on their asking price, while at the same time there are currently a lot more sales candidates from the Far East.
On the other hand, there are those who are more conservative and therefore unwilling to accept Seller’s ideas. Besides the fact that the current price levels make no sense to them, as long as these subdued freight rates persist, they are also very sceptic when it comes to the number of deliveries set to enter service within the next couple of years, predicting that a renewed overcapacity problem will most probably surface possibly creating another market bottom. Should they be proven right, we will certainly witness another round of softening asset values, both in the second hand and the new building market, especially if scrapping activity remains at the low levels we have been witnessing during the past months and despite those sky high demo prices around.
It is always both risky and difficult to make predictions and nobody could say with certainty what the next 6 months of 2014 hold for the market. And despite the fact that things have been far from rosy so far this year, let’s not forget that the first half of 2013 wasn’t a whole lot different with most predicting further price reductions, which nonetheless never materialized.
In terms of the overcapacity being created, let’s hope that the upcoming lower emissions rules, the Dry Docking for most of the 80’s built ships that will be due soon, as well as scrap subsidies similar to the ones offered in China, could well be some of the reasons that will restrict overcapacity. Will they nonetheless be enough to protect the market from the number of vessels soon to be delivered? It’s anyone’s guess at this point.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 08 April 14
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 2.90 MMT OF POWER PLANT AND SEMI-SOFT COKING COAL IN A WEEK
COALspot.com: In the week ended 07:00 hours 7 April 2014, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensla ...
Tuesday, 08 April 14
RBCT SHIPPED 53.79% MORE COAL IN MARCH 2014
COALspot.com: South Africa's Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT) the single largest export coal terminal in the world, shipped 6.90 million to ...
Tuesday, 08 April 14
APRIL 2014 INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE DROPS TO LOWEST SINCE JANUARY 2010
COALspot.com - The Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources of Indonesia has revised down again the coal bench mark price by US$ 2.20 / MT to ...
Tuesday, 08 April 14
TALKING ABOUT A ONE-HORSE RACE - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
Ever since the onslaught of the financial crisis, China along with the other BRIICs, have played a pivotal role in supporting global economic gr ...
Monday, 07 April 14
WEEKLY SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP CLAIMS EDGE FALL; TREND NEGATIVE
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q4’ 2014 lost on month, day and on week according to AsiaClear OTC coal swap's reports ...
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- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
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