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Wednesday, 14 May 14
ALMOST THROUGH THE HALF OF THE YEAR, THE DRY BULK INDEX SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKNESS; CREATING TO BOTH EXISTING SHIP OWNERS AND POTENTIAL INVESTORS A LOT OF INSECURITY - PANOS MAKRINOS
 Almost through the half of the year, the overall shipping market and more specifically the Dry Bulk Index show signs of weakness, creating to both existing ship owners and potential investors a lot of insecurity for what is in place for the second half of 2014, as well as further disbelief to those voices that inspired by the last quarter of 2013, were calling for a stable market during 2014.
Looking back to the beginning of the year we can say that from the month of February until the time of this writing, with the exception of a small rally, the market has struggled for the greater part, with the BDI returning to below 1,000 points. More specifically, in December last year and while the Index stood above 2,000 points, the overall sentiment was calling for an equally strong market in 2014, which never came.
The market has in fact followed a persistent downward trend until mid-February when we started seeing the first signs of improvement. The latter lasted for about a month, with the BDI peaking for the year within this period but still remaining below 2,000 points, and soon after that the downward trend resumed, bringing us to today.
Seeing the low levels the freight market has been fairing, most would normally expect that second-hand prices would have followed course, but it seems that it took a while before we started seeing the first discounts off last done sales and even the levels at which most vessels come in the market today still don’t reflect the current freight environment. There are in fact cases of modern Handymax to Panamax tonnage where inspection interest remains high allowing owners to hold firm on their asking price, while at the same time there are currently a lot more sales candidates from the Far East.
On the other hand, there are those who are more conservative and therefore unwilling to accept Seller’s ideas. Besides the fact that the current price levels make no sense to them, as long as these subdued freight rates persist, they are also very sceptic when it comes to the number of deliveries set to enter service within the next couple of years, predicting that a renewed overcapacity problem will most probably surface possibly creating another market bottom. Should they be proven right, we will certainly witness another round of softening asset values, both in the second hand and the new building market, especially if scrapping activity remains at the low levels we have been witnessing during the past months and despite those sky high demo prices around.
It is always both risky and difficult to make predictions and nobody could say with certainty what the next 6 months of 2014 hold for the market. And despite the fact that things have been far from rosy so far this year, let’s not forget that the first half of 2013 wasn’t a whole lot different with most predicting further price reductions, which nonetheless never materialized.
In terms of the overcapacity being created, let’s hope that the upcoming lower emissions rules, the Dry Docking for most of the 80’s built ships that will be due soon, as well as scrap subsidies similar to the ones offered in China, could well be some of the reasons that will restrict overcapacity. Will they nonetheless be enough to protect the market from the number of vessels soon to be delivered? It’s anyone’s guess at this point.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 02 April 14
BPI BREAKING BELOW THE 1,000 PSYCHOLOGICAL LEVELS - INTERMODAL
Any resistance put forth by the Dry Bulk market the week prior was succumbed this time round. All indices slid and losses were noted across the ...
Tuesday, 01 April 14
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 11.95 MILLION TONS OF COAL IN MARCH 2014
COALspot.com: In the week ended 31 March 2014, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland, total 2 ...
Monday, 31 March 14
SHIPPING CONFIDENCE HITS HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE 2008 - MOORE STEPHENS
Overall confidence levels in the shipping industry rose to their highest level for almost six years in the three-month period to February 2014, ...
Monday, 31 March 14
COAL SWAP FOR Q1 2015 DELIVERY HAS CLOSED 4.76% HIGHER COMPARED Q2 14 CLOSING
COALspot.com – Indonesia, the world’s largest exporter of the thermal coal's swaps for delivery April - June 2014 gained this pa ...
Monday, 31 March 14
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP FOR Q2 14 DELIVERY LOST 1.17% M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q2 14 deliveries lost 1.17 percent month on month and closed at US$ 75.38 per m ...
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- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
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