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Wednesday, 14 May 14
ALMOST THROUGH THE HALF OF THE YEAR, THE DRY BULK INDEX SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKNESS; CREATING TO BOTH EXISTING SHIP OWNERS AND POTENTIAL INVESTORS A LOT OF INSECURITY - PANOS MAKRINOS
 Almost through the half of the year, the overall shipping market and more specifically the Dry Bulk Index show signs of weakness, creating to both existing ship owners and potential investors a lot of insecurity for what is in place for the second half of 2014, as well as further disbelief to those voices that inspired by the last quarter of 2013, were calling for a stable market during 2014.
Looking back to the beginning of the year we can say that from the month of February until the time of this writing, with the exception of a small rally, the market has struggled for the greater part, with the BDI returning to below 1,000 points. More specifically, in December last year and while the Index stood above 2,000 points, the overall sentiment was calling for an equally strong market in 2014, which never came.
The market has in fact followed a persistent downward trend until mid-February when we started seeing the first signs of improvement. The latter lasted for about a month, with the BDI peaking for the year within this period but still remaining below 2,000 points, and soon after that the downward trend resumed, bringing us to today.
Seeing the low levels the freight market has been fairing, most would normally expect that second-hand prices would have followed course, but it seems that it took a while before we started seeing the first discounts off last done sales and even the levels at which most vessels come in the market today still don’t reflect the current freight environment. There are in fact cases of modern Handymax to Panamax tonnage where inspection interest remains high allowing owners to hold firm on their asking price, while at the same time there are currently a lot more sales candidates from the Far East.
On the other hand, there are those who are more conservative and therefore unwilling to accept Seller’s ideas. Besides the fact that the current price levels make no sense to them, as long as these subdued freight rates persist, they are also very sceptic when it comes to the number of deliveries set to enter service within the next couple of years, predicting that a renewed overcapacity problem will most probably surface possibly creating another market bottom. Should they be proven right, we will certainly witness another round of softening asset values, both in the second hand and the new building market, especially if scrapping activity remains at the low levels we have been witnessing during the past months and despite those sky high demo prices around.
It is always both risky and difficult to make predictions and nobody could say with certainty what the next 6 months of 2014 hold for the market. And despite the fact that things have been far from rosy so far this year, let’s not forget that the first half of 2013 wasn’t a whole lot different with most predicting further price reductions, which nonetheless never materialized.
In terms of the overcapacity being created, let’s hope that the upcoming lower emissions rules, the Dry Docking for most of the 80’s built ships that will be due soon, as well as scrap subsidies similar to the ones offered in China, could well be some of the reasons that will restrict overcapacity. Will they nonetheless be enough to protect the market from the number of vessels soon to be delivered? It’s anyone’s guess at this point.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Sunday, 13 April 14
INDONESIA TO INDIA FREIGHT MARKET DECLINE CONTINUES
COALspot.com: The freight market continued to drop this week and BDI almost touched 1000 points. BDI closed at 1002 points fell 16.85 pct week o ...
Saturday, 12 April 14
HOW DO YOU CALCULATE LOSS OF EARNINGS FOLLOWING A COLLISION? - INCE & CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The recent case of Astipalaia vs Hanjin Shenzhen [2014] EWHC 120 (Admlty) has revisited the existing case law on asses ...
Friday, 11 April 14
US COAL PRODUCTION IN MARCH INCREASED 9.69% TO 82.6 MMST MONTH ON MONTH
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 19.10 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
Thursday, 10 April 14
DRY BULK MARKET IS RISING CLAIMS BIMCO - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Despite the recent fall of the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), when one compares the first quarter of 2014, to similar quarters of the recent past, it i ...
Wednesday, 09 April 14
DRY BULK MARKET STRUGGLED THROUGHOUT THE WEEK - INTERMODAL
The Dry Bulk market struggled throughout the week but the poor performance across the board didn't allow for any positive reversal, pushing ...
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
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