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Wednesday, 14 May 14
ALMOST THROUGH THE HALF OF THE YEAR, THE DRY BULK INDEX SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKNESS; CREATING TO BOTH EXISTING SHIP OWNERS AND POTENTIAL INVESTORS A LOT OF INSECURITY - PANOS MAKRINOS
 Almost through the half of the year, the overall shipping market and more specifically the Dry Bulk Index show signs of weakness, creating to both existing ship owners and potential investors a lot of insecurity for what is in place for the second half of 2014, as well as further disbelief to those voices that inspired by the last quarter of 2013, were calling for a stable market during 2014.
Looking back to the beginning of the year we can say that from the month of February until the time of this writing, with the exception of a small rally, the market has struggled for the greater part, with the BDI returning to below 1,000 points. More specifically, in December last year and while the Index stood above 2,000 points, the overall sentiment was calling for an equally strong market in 2014, which never came.
The market has in fact followed a persistent downward trend until mid-February when we started seeing the first signs of improvement. The latter lasted for about a month, with the BDI peaking for the year within this period but still remaining below 2,000 points, and soon after that the downward trend resumed, bringing us to today.
Seeing the low levels the freight market has been fairing, most would normally expect that second-hand prices would have followed course, but it seems that it took a while before we started seeing the first discounts off last done sales and even the levels at which most vessels come in the market today still don’t reflect the current freight environment. There are in fact cases of modern Handymax to Panamax tonnage where inspection interest remains high allowing owners to hold firm on their asking price, while at the same time there are currently a lot more sales candidates from the Far East.
On the other hand, there are those who are more conservative and therefore unwilling to accept Seller’s ideas. Besides the fact that the current price levels make no sense to them, as long as these subdued freight rates persist, they are also very sceptic when it comes to the number of deliveries set to enter service within the next couple of years, predicting that a renewed overcapacity problem will most probably surface possibly creating another market bottom. Should they be proven right, we will certainly witness another round of softening asset values, both in the second hand and the new building market, especially if scrapping activity remains at the low levels we have been witnessing during the past months and despite those sky high demo prices around.
It is always both risky and difficult to make predictions and nobody could say with certainty what the next 6 months of 2014 hold for the market. And despite the fact that things have been far from rosy so far this year, let’s not forget that the first half of 2013 wasn’t a whole lot different with most predicting further price reductions, which nonetheless never materialized.
In terms of the overcapacity being created, let’s hope that the upcoming lower emissions rules, the Dry Docking for most of the 80’s built ships that will be due soon, as well as scrap subsidies similar to the ones offered in China, could well be some of the reasons that will restrict overcapacity. Will they nonetheless be enough to protect the market from the number of vessels soon to be delivered? It’s anyone’s guess at this point.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Sunday, 30 March 14
FREIGHTS FROM INDONESIA TO INDIA IS EXPECTED TO BE SOFT NEXT WEEK - REDDY
COALspot.com: The freight market dropped drastically and all sectors were affected severely.
The BDI was down by 14.13 pct and closed at 1, ...
Friday, 28 March 14
US PRODUCED APPROXIMATELY 18.9 MMST IN A WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 18.9 million short tons (mmst) of coal i ...
Friday, 28 March 14
CHINA'S ENVIRONMENTAL MEASURES WILL NOT CURB GROWTH IN DOMESTIC STEEL PRODUCTION AND SEABORNE IRON ORE - WOOD MACKENZIE SAYS
Steel plants in China have been targeted as a major source of the toxic smog enveloping Beijing and Shanghai. Emergency measures have been impos ...
Thursday, 27 March 14
PANAMAX : SEEMS TO HEAD FURTHER DOWN; CAPESIZE : ANOTHER CHOPPY AND UNPREDICTABLE WEEK - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
A weaker sentiment for the smaller size as well, with reduced activity in the Atlantic where Owners have to face significantly lower ret ...
Wednesday, 26 March 14
NEWBUILDING ORDERING ACTIVITY PICKS UP PACE ON IMPROVING DRY BULK MARKET CONDITIONS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The gradual improvement of the dry bulk market, as expected for some time now, is urging shipowners to increase their newbuilding ordering activ ...
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- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Australian Coal Association
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
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