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Wednesday, 14 May 14
ALMOST THROUGH THE HALF OF THE YEAR, THE DRY BULK INDEX SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKNESS; CREATING TO BOTH EXISTING SHIP OWNERS AND POTENTIAL INVESTORS A LOT OF INSECURITY - PANOS MAKRINOS
Almost through the half of the year, the overall shipping market and more specifically the Dry Bulk Index show signs of weakness, creating to both existing ship owners and potential investors a lot of insecurity for what is in place for the second half of 2014, as well as further disbelief to those voices that inspired by the last quarter of 2013, were calling for a stable market during 2014.
Looking back to the beginning of the year we can say that from the month of February until the time of this writing, with the exception of a small rally, the market has struggled for the greater part, with the BDI returning to below 1,000 points. More specifically, in December last year and while the Index stood above 2,000 points, the overall sentiment was calling for an equally strong market in 2014, which never came.
The market has in fact followed a persistent downward trend until mid-February when we started seeing the first signs of improvement. The latter lasted for about a month, with the BDI peaking for the year within this period but still remaining below 2,000 points, and soon after that the downward trend resumed, bringing us to today.
Seeing the low levels the freight market has been fairing, most would normally expect that second-hand prices would have followed course, but it seems that it took a while before we started seeing the first discounts off last done sales and even the levels at which most vessels come in the market today still don’t reflect the current freight environment. There are in fact cases of modern Handymax to Panamax tonnage where inspection interest remains high allowing owners to hold firm on their asking price, while at the same time there are currently a lot more sales candidates from the Far East.
On the other hand, there are those who are more conservative and therefore unwilling to accept Seller’s ideas. Besides the fact that the current price levels make no sense to them, as long as these subdued freight rates persist, they are also very sceptic when it comes to the number of deliveries set to enter service within the next couple of years, predicting that a renewed overcapacity problem will most probably surface possibly creating another market bottom. Should they be proven right, we will certainly witness another round of softening asset values, both in the second hand and the new building market, especially if scrapping activity remains at the low levels we have been witnessing during the past months and despite those sky high demo prices around.
It is always both risky and difficult to make predictions and nobody could say with certainty what the next 6 months of 2014 hold for the market. And despite the fact that things have been far from rosy so far this year, let’s not forget that the first half of 2013 wasn’t a whole lot different with most predicting further price reductions, which nonetheless never materialized.
In terms of the overcapacity being created, let’s hope that the upcoming lower emissions rules, the Dry Docking for most of the 80’s built ships that will be due soon, as well as scrap subsidies similar to the ones offered in China, could well be some of the reasons that will restrict overcapacity. Will they nonetheless be enough to protect the market from the number of vessels soon to be delivered? It’s anyone’s guess at this point.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 15 April 14
NEWCASTLE SHIPPED MORE COAL WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: In the week ended 07:00 hours 14 April 2014, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensl ...
Monday, 14 April 14
SUB-BIT FOB INDO COAL SWAP FOR Q1' 15 DELIVERY CLOSED AT US$ 60.12 PER MT
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q4’ 2014 gain on month and on week according to AsiaClear OTC coal swap's reports rele ...
Monday, 14 April 14
INDONESIA'S Q1 COAL PRODUCTION LITTLE CHANGED EVEN WITH PRICE DROP - INVESTOR DAILY
Indonesia’s coal production by volume in the first quarter remained little changed from the same period last year despite the decline in t ...
Monday, 14 April 14
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS GAIN FOR THE MONTH & WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q2 14 deliveries gained 4.61 percent month on month and closed at US$ 76.18 per mt as ...
Monday, 14 April 14
CHINA'S MEASURES TO STIMULATE ECONOMY'S GROWTH COULD OFFER ROOM FOR STABILITY IN SHIPPING MARKETS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Since the outbreak of the 2008-crisis, the shipping industry, in most of its aspects, i.e. dry bulk and tanker markets alike, has been dealing w ...
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- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PTC India Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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