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Wednesday, 14 May 14
ALMOST THROUGH THE HALF OF THE YEAR, THE DRY BULK INDEX SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKNESS; CREATING TO BOTH EXISTING SHIP OWNERS AND POTENTIAL INVESTORS A LOT OF INSECURITY - PANOS MAKRINOS
 Almost through the half of the year, the overall shipping market and more specifically the Dry Bulk Index show signs of weakness, creating to both existing ship owners and potential investors a lot of insecurity for what is in place for the second half of 2014, as well as further disbelief to those voices that inspired by the last quarter of 2013, were calling for a stable market during 2014.
Looking back to the beginning of the year we can say that from the month of February until the time of this writing, with the exception of a small rally, the market has struggled for the greater part, with the BDI returning to below 1,000 points. More specifically, in December last year and while the Index stood above 2,000 points, the overall sentiment was calling for an equally strong market in 2014, which never came.
The market has in fact followed a persistent downward trend until mid-February when we started seeing the first signs of improvement. The latter lasted for about a month, with the BDI peaking for the year within this period but still remaining below 2,000 points, and soon after that the downward trend resumed, bringing us to today.
Seeing the low levels the freight market has been fairing, most would normally expect that second-hand prices would have followed course, but it seems that it took a while before we started seeing the first discounts off last done sales and even the levels at which most vessels come in the market today still don’t reflect the current freight environment. There are in fact cases of modern Handymax to Panamax tonnage where inspection interest remains high allowing owners to hold firm on their asking price, while at the same time there are currently a lot more sales candidates from the Far East.
On the other hand, there are those who are more conservative and therefore unwilling to accept Seller’s ideas. Besides the fact that the current price levels make no sense to them, as long as these subdued freight rates persist, they are also very sceptic when it comes to the number of deliveries set to enter service within the next couple of years, predicting that a renewed overcapacity problem will most probably surface possibly creating another market bottom. Should they be proven right, we will certainly witness another round of softening asset values, both in the second hand and the new building market, especially if scrapping activity remains at the low levels we have been witnessing during the past months and despite those sky high demo prices around.
It is always both risky and difficult to make predictions and nobody could say with certainty what the next 6 months of 2014 hold for the market. And despite the fact that things have been far from rosy so far this year, let’s not forget that the first half of 2013 wasn’t a whole lot different with most predicting further price reductions, which nonetheless never materialized.
In terms of the overcapacity being created, let’s hope that the upcoming lower emissions rules, the Dry Docking for most of the 80’s built ships that will be due soon, as well as scrap subsidies similar to the ones offered in China, could well be some of the reasons that will restrict overcapacity. Will they nonetheless be enough to protect the market from the number of vessels soon to be delivered? It’s anyone’s guess at this point.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 20 April 14
FREIGHT RATES END WEEK ON WEAK NOTE - VISTAAR
Wish you all Happy Easter.
The freight market continued to its downwards as BDI was fell 7.187 percent to 930 points week on week.
The ...
Friday, 18 April 14
US WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION DECLINED BY 1% TO 18.9 MMST
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 18.9 million short tons (mmst) of coal i ...
Thursday, 17 April 14
DRY BULK MARKET ON RETREAT MODE, WHILE NEWBUILDING ORDERING ACTIVITY STALLS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has kept on retreating this week, a pattern which emerged since late March. Yesterday the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) ended yet a ...
Wednesday, 16 April 14
INDONESIA'S FEBRUARY 2014 COAL EXPORT VOLUME FELL 2.41%
COALspot.com: Indonesia, the world 4th largest coal producer and the global largest multi grade coal exporter shipped around $1.77* billio ...
Wednesday, 16 April 14
Q1 2014 : TERMS OF FREIGHT RATES THE PERFORMANCE IN THE DRY BULK MARKET HAS NOT MET THE HIGH EXPECTATIONS - INTERMODAL
This year the dates for the celebration of Easter will coincide for the Orthodox and the Catholic, so we are already seeing most people in the m ...
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- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
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