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Wednesday, 14 May 14
ALMOST THROUGH THE HALF OF THE YEAR, THE DRY BULK INDEX SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKNESS; CREATING TO BOTH EXISTING SHIP OWNERS AND POTENTIAL INVESTORS A LOT OF INSECURITY - PANOS MAKRINOS
 Almost through the half of the year, the overall shipping market and more specifically the Dry Bulk Index show signs of weakness, creating to both existing ship owners and potential investors a lot of insecurity for what is in place for the second half of 2014, as well as further disbelief to those voices that inspired by the last quarter of 2013, were calling for a stable market during 2014.
Looking back to the beginning of the year we can say that from the month of February until the time of this writing, with the exception of a small rally, the market has struggled for the greater part, with the BDI returning to below 1,000 points. More specifically, in December last year and while the Index stood above 2,000 points, the overall sentiment was calling for an equally strong market in 2014, which never came.
The market has in fact followed a persistent downward trend until mid-February when we started seeing the first signs of improvement. The latter lasted for about a month, with the BDI peaking for the year within this period but still remaining below 2,000 points, and soon after that the downward trend resumed, bringing us to today.
Seeing the low levels the freight market has been fairing, most would normally expect that second-hand prices would have followed course, but it seems that it took a while before we started seeing the first discounts off last done sales and even the levels at which most vessels come in the market today still don’t reflect the current freight environment. There are in fact cases of modern Handymax to Panamax tonnage where inspection interest remains high allowing owners to hold firm on their asking price, while at the same time there are currently a lot more sales candidates from the Far East.
On the other hand, there are those who are more conservative and therefore unwilling to accept Seller’s ideas. Besides the fact that the current price levels make no sense to them, as long as these subdued freight rates persist, they are also very sceptic when it comes to the number of deliveries set to enter service within the next couple of years, predicting that a renewed overcapacity problem will most probably surface possibly creating another market bottom. Should they be proven right, we will certainly witness another round of softening asset values, both in the second hand and the new building market, especially if scrapping activity remains at the low levels we have been witnessing during the past months and despite those sky high demo prices around.
It is always both risky and difficult to make predictions and nobody could say with certainty what the next 6 months of 2014 hold for the market. And despite the fact that things have been far from rosy so far this year, let’s not forget that the first half of 2013 wasn’t a whole lot different with most predicting further price reductions, which nonetheless never materialized.
In terms of the overcapacity being created, let’s hope that the upcoming lower emissions rules, the Dry Docking for most of the 80’s built ships that will be due soon, as well as scrap subsidies similar to the ones offered in China, could well be some of the reasons that will restrict overcapacity. Will they nonetheless be enough to protect the market from the number of vessels soon to be delivered? It’s anyone’s guess at this point.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 22 April 14
INDONESIAN MARCH COAL EXPORT VOLUME SURGE 9.12% TO 35.54 MMT
COALspot.com: Indonesia, one of the world's largest coal producer and the global largest multi grade coal exporter shipped around $1.9 ...
Tuesday, 22 April 14
NEWCASTLE WEEKLY COAL EXPORTS FELL 13.33% THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: In the week ended 07:00 hours 21 April 2014, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensl ...
Monday, 21 April 14
Q1'15 SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP SHOWING A POSITIVE TREND
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q2’ 2014 gain on month and on week according to AsiaClear OTC coal swap's reports rele ...
Monday, 21 April 14
Q4 2014 AND Q1 2015 COAL SWAPS CLOSED MARGINALLY HIGHER COMPARED TO Q2 PRICES
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q2 14 deliveries gained 0.87 percent month on month and closed at US$ 76.15 per mt as ...
Monday, 21 April 14
DRY BULK MARKET UPS AND - MOST RECENTLY - DOWNS OFFERS NO ROOM FOR RELAXING AMONG DRY BULK SHIP OWNERS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market's latest demise, with the market retrating once again, since the end of March, has come at a time, when most ship owners ...
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- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Australian Coal Association
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The University of Queensland
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
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