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Wednesday, 14 May 14
ALMOST THROUGH THE HALF OF THE YEAR, THE DRY BULK INDEX SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKNESS; CREATING TO BOTH EXISTING SHIP OWNERS AND POTENTIAL INVESTORS A LOT OF INSECURITY - PANOS MAKRINOS
 Almost through the half of the year, the overall shipping market and more specifically the Dry Bulk Index show signs of weakness, creating to both existing ship owners and potential investors a lot of insecurity for what is in place for the second half of 2014, as well as further disbelief to those voices that inspired by the last quarter of 2013, were calling for a stable market during 2014.
Looking back to the beginning of the year we can say that from the month of February until the time of this writing, with the exception of a small rally, the market has struggled for the greater part, with the BDI returning to below 1,000 points. More specifically, in December last year and while the Index stood above 2,000 points, the overall sentiment was calling for an equally strong market in 2014, which never came.
The market has in fact followed a persistent downward trend until mid-February when we started seeing the first signs of improvement. The latter lasted for about a month, with the BDI peaking for the year within this period but still remaining below 2,000 points, and soon after that the downward trend resumed, bringing us to today.
Seeing the low levels the freight market has been fairing, most would normally expect that second-hand prices would have followed course, but it seems that it took a while before we started seeing the first discounts off last done sales and even the levels at which most vessels come in the market today still don’t reflect the current freight environment. There are in fact cases of modern Handymax to Panamax tonnage where inspection interest remains high allowing owners to hold firm on their asking price, while at the same time there are currently a lot more sales candidates from the Far East.
On the other hand, there are those who are more conservative and therefore unwilling to accept Seller’s ideas. Besides the fact that the current price levels make no sense to them, as long as these subdued freight rates persist, they are also very sceptic when it comes to the number of deliveries set to enter service within the next couple of years, predicting that a renewed overcapacity problem will most probably surface possibly creating another market bottom. Should they be proven right, we will certainly witness another round of softening asset values, both in the second hand and the new building market, especially if scrapping activity remains at the low levels we have been witnessing during the past months and despite those sky high demo prices around.
It is always both risky and difficult to make predictions and nobody could say with certainty what the next 6 months of 2014 hold for the market. And despite the fact that things have been far from rosy so far this year, let’s not forget that the first half of 2013 wasn’t a whole lot different with most predicting further price reductions, which nonetheless never materialized.
In terms of the overcapacity being created, let’s hope that the upcoming lower emissions rules, the Dry Docking for most of the 80’s built ships that will be due soon, as well as scrap subsidies similar to the ones offered in China, could well be some of the reasons that will restrict overcapacity. Will they nonetheless be enough to protect the market from the number of vessels soon to be delivered? It’s anyone’s guess at this point.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 05 May 14
SUB BIT-FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS LOST GROUND LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q3’ 2014 lost on day, week and on month according to AsiaClear OTC coal swap's reports ...
Monday, 05 May 14
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP FOR AVERAGE Q3 14 DELIVERIES: LOST 0.82% M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q3 14 deliveries lost 0.82 percent month on month and closed at US$ 75.20 per mt as o ...
Sunday, 04 May 14
INDONESIA TO INDIA FREIGHT RATES ARE SHOWING POSITIVE TREND
COALspot.com: The freight market is seems to be some recovery as cape index has increased by 7.84 pct week on week. Cape index closed at 1829 po ...
Friday, 02 May 14
ADARO ENERGY STARTS YEAR 2014 WELL DESPITE CURRENT MARKET CONDITIONS
COALspot.com: Adaro Energy, the second largest Indonesian coal miner's revenue increased 14% to US$ 845 million due to higher sales volume, ...
Friday, 02 May 14
US WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION RELATIVELY FLAT AT -0.1%, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 19.0 million short tons (mmst) of coal i ...
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- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
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