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Wednesday, 14 May 14
ALMOST THROUGH THE HALF OF THE YEAR, THE DRY BULK INDEX SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKNESS; CREATING TO BOTH EXISTING SHIP OWNERS AND POTENTIAL INVESTORS A LOT OF INSECURITY - PANOS MAKRINOS
 Almost through the half of the year, the overall shipping market and more specifically the Dry Bulk Index show signs of weakness, creating to both existing ship owners and potential investors a lot of insecurity for what is in place for the second half of 2014, as well as further disbelief to those voices that inspired by the last quarter of 2013, were calling for a stable market during 2014.
Looking back to the beginning of the year we can say that from the month of February until the time of this writing, with the exception of a small rally, the market has struggled for the greater part, with the BDI returning to below 1,000 points. More specifically, in December last year and while the Index stood above 2,000 points, the overall sentiment was calling for an equally strong market in 2014, which never came.
The market has in fact followed a persistent downward trend until mid-February when we started seeing the first signs of improvement. The latter lasted for about a month, with the BDI peaking for the year within this period but still remaining below 2,000 points, and soon after that the downward trend resumed, bringing us to today.
Seeing the low levels the freight market has been fairing, most would normally expect that second-hand prices would have followed course, but it seems that it took a while before we started seeing the first discounts off last done sales and even the levels at which most vessels come in the market today still don’t reflect the current freight environment. There are in fact cases of modern Handymax to Panamax tonnage where inspection interest remains high allowing owners to hold firm on their asking price, while at the same time there are currently a lot more sales candidates from the Far East.
On the other hand, there are those who are more conservative and therefore unwilling to accept Seller’s ideas. Besides the fact that the current price levels make no sense to them, as long as these subdued freight rates persist, they are also very sceptic when it comes to the number of deliveries set to enter service within the next couple of years, predicting that a renewed overcapacity problem will most probably surface possibly creating another market bottom. Should they be proven right, we will certainly witness another round of softening asset values, both in the second hand and the new building market, especially if scrapping activity remains at the low levels we have been witnessing during the past months and despite those sky high demo prices around.
It is always both risky and difficult to make predictions and nobody could say with certainty what the next 6 months of 2014 hold for the market. And despite the fact that things have been far from rosy so far this year, let’s not forget that the first half of 2013 wasn’t a whole lot different with most predicting further price reductions, which nonetheless never materialized.
In terms of the overcapacity being created, let’s hope that the upcoming lower emissions rules, the Dry Docking for most of the 80’s built ships that will be due soon, as well as scrap subsidies similar to the ones offered in China, could well be some of the reasons that will restrict overcapacity. Will they nonetheless be enough to protect the market from the number of vessels soon to be delivered? It’s anyone’s guess at this point.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 29 April 14
NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 3.03 MILLION TONS WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: In the week ended 07:00 hours 28 April 2014, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensl ...
Tuesday, 29 April 14
Q2 API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP LOST 0.29% MONTH ON MONTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q2 14 deliveries lost 0.29 percent month on month and closed at US$ 75.43 per mt as o ...
Monday, 28 April 14
CHINA LIKELY TO FALL SHORT OF NUCLEAR POWER TARGETS AT 175GW OF CAPACITY BY 2030 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Coal will remain dominant supply at 64% of power mix
Wood Mackenzie forecasts that China will not meet its environmentally-driven, government ...
Sunday, 27 April 14
INDONESIA TO INDIA FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE STEADY NEXT WEEK
COALspot.com: The freight market seems to have bottomed out and saw some marginal gains in all segments, said Capt. Reddy of Vistaar Shipping In ...
Friday, 25 April 14
US PRODUCED APPROXIMATELY 19 MILLION SHORT TONS OF COAL IN A WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 19.0 million short tons (mmst) of coal i ...
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- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
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