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Wednesday, 14 May 14
ALMOST THROUGH THE HALF OF THE YEAR, THE DRY BULK INDEX SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKNESS; CREATING TO BOTH EXISTING SHIP OWNERS AND POTENTIAL INVESTORS A LOT OF INSECURITY - PANOS MAKRINOS
 Almost through the half of the year, the overall shipping market and more specifically the Dry Bulk Index show signs of weakness, creating to both existing ship owners and potential investors a lot of insecurity for what is in place for the second half of 2014, as well as further disbelief to those voices that inspired by the last quarter of 2013, were calling for a stable market during 2014.
Looking back to the beginning of the year we can say that from the month of February until the time of this writing, with the exception of a small rally, the market has struggled for the greater part, with the BDI returning to below 1,000 points. More specifically, in December last year and while the Index stood above 2,000 points, the overall sentiment was calling for an equally strong market in 2014, which never came.
The market has in fact followed a persistent downward trend until mid-February when we started seeing the first signs of improvement. The latter lasted for about a month, with the BDI peaking for the year within this period but still remaining below 2,000 points, and soon after that the downward trend resumed, bringing us to today.
Seeing the low levels the freight market has been fairing, most would normally expect that second-hand prices would have followed course, but it seems that it took a while before we started seeing the first discounts off last done sales and even the levels at which most vessels come in the market today still don’t reflect the current freight environment. There are in fact cases of modern Handymax to Panamax tonnage where inspection interest remains high allowing owners to hold firm on their asking price, while at the same time there are currently a lot more sales candidates from the Far East.
On the other hand, there are those who are more conservative and therefore unwilling to accept Seller’s ideas. Besides the fact that the current price levels make no sense to them, as long as these subdued freight rates persist, they are also very sceptic when it comes to the number of deliveries set to enter service within the next couple of years, predicting that a renewed overcapacity problem will most probably surface possibly creating another market bottom. Should they be proven right, we will certainly witness another round of softening asset values, both in the second hand and the new building market, especially if scrapping activity remains at the low levels we have been witnessing during the past months and despite those sky high demo prices around.
It is always both risky and difficult to make predictions and nobody could say with certainty what the next 6 months of 2014 hold for the market. And despite the fact that things have been far from rosy so far this year, let’s not forget that the first half of 2013 wasn’t a whole lot different with most predicting further price reductions, which nonetheless never materialized.
In terms of the overcapacity being created, let’s hope that the upcoming lower emissions rules, the Dry Docking for most of the 80’s built ships that will be due soon, as well as scrap subsidies similar to the ones offered in China, could well be some of the reasons that will restrict overcapacity. Will they nonetheless be enough to protect the market from the number of vessels soon to be delivered? It’s anyone’s guess at this point.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 08 May 14
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE IN MAY CRASHES THROUGH $74
COALspot.com - The Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources of Indonesia has revised down again the coal bench mark price by US$ 1.21 / MT to ...
Wednesday, 07 May 14
THE DRY BULK MARKET HAS NOTED ANOTHER WEEKLY POSITIVE GAIN
Chartering (Wet: Softer- / Dry: Stable+)
The Dry Bulk market has noted another weekly positive gain, driven by the Capesize segment, but we ne ...
Wednesday, 07 May 14
SGX ENHANCES ITS COMMODITIES PRODUCT OFFERING
COALspot.com: SGX is building up its bulk commodity product offerings with 9 more derivative contracts over the next 2 months, subject to regula ...
Tuesday, 06 May 14
NEWCASTLE COAL EXPORT SLIPS 7.92% WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: In the week ended 07:00 hours 5 May 2014, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland ...
Monday, 05 May 14
HUANENG CLEAN ENERGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE HAS CONFIRMED TO SPEAK AT CCF2014
Press Release: Produced by CDMC Events, The 13th Clean Coal Forum 2014 will be held on June 12,13, 2014 in Beijing, China. We are glad to invite ...
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- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Planning Commission, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The University of Queensland
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
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