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Wednesday, 14 May 14
ALMOST THROUGH THE HALF OF THE YEAR, THE DRY BULK INDEX SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKNESS; CREATING TO BOTH EXISTING SHIP OWNERS AND POTENTIAL INVESTORS A LOT OF INSECURITY - PANOS MAKRINOS
 Almost through the half of the year, the overall shipping market and more specifically the Dry Bulk Index show signs of weakness, creating to both existing ship owners and potential investors a lot of insecurity for what is in place for the second half of 2014, as well as further disbelief to those voices that inspired by the last quarter of 2013, were calling for a stable market during 2014.
Looking back to the beginning of the year we can say that from the month of February until the time of this writing, with the exception of a small rally, the market has struggled for the greater part, with the BDI returning to below 1,000 points. More specifically, in December last year and while the Index stood above 2,000 points, the overall sentiment was calling for an equally strong market in 2014, which never came.
The market has in fact followed a persistent downward trend until mid-February when we started seeing the first signs of improvement. The latter lasted for about a month, with the BDI peaking for the year within this period but still remaining below 2,000 points, and soon after that the downward trend resumed, bringing us to today.
Seeing the low levels the freight market has been fairing, most would normally expect that second-hand prices would have followed course, but it seems that it took a while before we started seeing the first discounts off last done sales and even the levels at which most vessels come in the market today still don’t reflect the current freight environment. There are in fact cases of modern Handymax to Panamax tonnage where inspection interest remains high allowing owners to hold firm on their asking price, while at the same time there are currently a lot more sales candidates from the Far East.
On the other hand, there are those who are more conservative and therefore unwilling to accept Seller’s ideas. Besides the fact that the current price levels make no sense to them, as long as these subdued freight rates persist, they are also very sceptic when it comes to the number of deliveries set to enter service within the next couple of years, predicting that a renewed overcapacity problem will most probably surface possibly creating another market bottom. Should they be proven right, we will certainly witness another round of softening asset values, both in the second hand and the new building market, especially if scrapping activity remains at the low levels we have been witnessing during the past months and despite those sky high demo prices around.
It is always both risky and difficult to make predictions and nobody could say with certainty what the next 6 months of 2014 hold for the market. And despite the fact that things have been far from rosy so far this year, let’s not forget that the first half of 2013 wasn’t a whole lot different with most predicting further price reductions, which nonetheless never materialized.
In terms of the overcapacity being created, let’s hope that the upcoming lower emissions rules, the Dry Docking for most of the 80’s built ships that will be due soon, as well as scrap subsidies similar to the ones offered in China, could well be some of the reasons that will restrict overcapacity. Will they nonetheless be enough to protect the market from the number of vessels soon to be delivered? It’s anyone’s guess at this point.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 08 May 14
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE IN MAY CRASHES THROUGH $74
COALspot.com - The Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources of Indonesia has revised down again the coal bench mark price by US$ 1.21 / MT to ...
Wednesday, 07 May 14
THE DRY BULK MARKET HAS NOTED ANOTHER WEEKLY POSITIVE GAIN
Chartering (Wet: Softer- / Dry: Stable+)
The Dry Bulk market has noted another weekly positive gain, driven by the Capesize segment, but we ne ...
Wednesday, 07 May 14
SGX ENHANCES ITS COMMODITIES PRODUCT OFFERING
COALspot.com: SGX is building up its bulk commodity product offerings with 9 more derivative contracts over the next 2 months, subject to regula ...
Tuesday, 06 May 14
NEWCASTLE COAL EXPORT SLIPS 7.92% WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: In the week ended 07:00 hours 5 May 2014, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland ...
Monday, 05 May 14
HUANENG CLEAN ENERGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE HAS CONFIRMED TO SPEAK AT CCF2014
Press Release: Produced by CDMC Events, The 13th Clean Coal Forum 2014 will be held on June 12,13, 2014 in Beijing, China. We are glad to invite ...
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- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
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