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Wednesday, 14 May 14
ALMOST THROUGH THE HALF OF THE YEAR, THE DRY BULK INDEX SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKNESS; CREATING TO BOTH EXISTING SHIP OWNERS AND POTENTIAL INVESTORS A LOT OF INSECURITY - PANOS MAKRINOS
 Almost through the half of the year, the overall shipping market and more specifically the Dry Bulk Index show signs of weakness, creating to both existing ship owners and potential investors a lot of insecurity for what is in place for the second half of 2014, as well as further disbelief to those voices that inspired by the last quarter of 2013, were calling for a stable market during 2014.
Looking back to the beginning of the year we can say that from the month of February until the time of this writing, with the exception of a small rally, the market has struggled for the greater part, with the BDI returning to below 1,000 points. More specifically, in December last year and while the Index stood above 2,000 points, the overall sentiment was calling for an equally strong market in 2014, which never came.
The market has in fact followed a persistent downward trend until mid-February when we started seeing the first signs of improvement. The latter lasted for about a month, with the BDI peaking for the year within this period but still remaining below 2,000 points, and soon after that the downward trend resumed, bringing us to today.
Seeing the low levels the freight market has been fairing, most would normally expect that second-hand prices would have followed course, but it seems that it took a while before we started seeing the first discounts off last done sales and even the levels at which most vessels come in the market today still don’t reflect the current freight environment. There are in fact cases of modern Handymax to Panamax tonnage where inspection interest remains high allowing owners to hold firm on their asking price, while at the same time there are currently a lot more sales candidates from the Far East.
On the other hand, there are those who are more conservative and therefore unwilling to accept Seller’s ideas. Besides the fact that the current price levels make no sense to them, as long as these subdued freight rates persist, they are also very sceptic when it comes to the number of deliveries set to enter service within the next couple of years, predicting that a renewed overcapacity problem will most probably surface possibly creating another market bottom. Should they be proven right, we will certainly witness another round of softening asset values, both in the second hand and the new building market, especially if scrapping activity remains at the low levels we have been witnessing during the past months and despite those sky high demo prices around.
It is always both risky and difficult to make predictions and nobody could say with certainty what the next 6 months of 2014 hold for the market. And despite the fact that things have been far from rosy so far this year, let’s not forget that the first half of 2013 wasn’t a whole lot different with most predicting further price reductions, which nonetheless never materialized.
In terms of the overcapacity being created, let’s hope that the upcoming lower emissions rules, the Dry Docking for most of the 80’s built ships that will be due soon, as well as scrap subsidies similar to the ones offered in China, could well be some of the reasons that will restrict overcapacity. Will they nonetheless be enough to protect the market from the number of vessels soon to be delivered? It’s anyone’s guess at this point.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Friday, 02 May 14
DRY BULK MARKET SHOWING SIGNS OF COMEBACK - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market which has been hovering below the 1,000-point market (BDI) during the past couple of weeks, could be exhibiting signs of a s ...
Thursday, 01 May 14
INDONESIA EXPORT BAN POINTS TO QUESTIONS OVER CHINA'S LONG-TERM BAUXITE SUPPLY - WOOD MACKENZIE
China’s Bauxite demand forecast to reach 240 million tonnes by 2030
In light of the Indonesian mineral ore ban that came into force o ...
Thursday, 01 May 14
DRY BULK MARKET STILL REELING UNDER PRESSURE FROM VARIOUS FACTORS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market's revival is still overdue, as the industry's benchmark, the BDI is still lagging below the 1,000-point mark. In fac ...
Wednesday, 30 April 14
FREIGHT MARKET FOR DRY BULKERS STILL REMAINS WEAK - INTERMODAL
One week after the Easter holiday and the celebration for the resurrection of Christ, everybody expected to see a similar sign of a revival in t ...
Tuesday, 29 April 14
Q4 SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAP CLOSED US$ 1.07 HIGHER COMPARED TO Q2 DELIVERY PRICE
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q2’ 2014 gain on month and on week according to AsiaClear OTC coal swap's reports rele ...
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- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The University of Queensland
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
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